Bag'daddy' vs Ferrer

[oddtodd]

What do you guys think?
I know ferrer is pretty excited about his chances of going deep in this tourney with nadal out and being in a bracket all by himself. But Marco at +550 seems too juicy too pass up. This has always been his best tournament as his body really wears down as the season goes on. Im thinking hes worth a unit or two.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Baggy doesnt have a chance.

Ferrer's outstanding form has carried over to the new year and he's not looking back. You gotta have a big serve to stand a chance against Ferrer cus you're sure as hell not gonna win the groundstrokes/baseline game against him. He's in top form in that category right now.

If you wanna take a chance on Baggy, perhaps take the sets line. That may have a slim chance of hitting but to beat Ferrer outright.....not gonna happen today.

[samus82]

Yeah have to agree with MagicDice, this is easily Ferrer's. Baghdatis just doesn't have the weapons to hurt Ferrer over 5 sets.

[oddtodd]

ya, it would take a magical performance. But Bag has looked in very good form this year as well. For your point, ferrer's non big4 losses last year were to belluci, nishikori, benneteau, wawrinka, and istomin. None to me stand out as big servers.

[samus82]

Fair point about the loses, but I guess not all of them make sense on paper. If we discuss form alone, Ferrer did just win the title in Auckland. He is in the top 5 now and is hungry to get higher, perfect chance to start the season well with a deep run into a Grand Slam, so there is no question over motivation.

h2h is 3-1 in favour of Ferrer but that win for Baggy did come 3 years ago at the Aussie Open, so I guess anything is possible. Huge ask though mate.

[EaglesPhan36]

Same thoughts as Federer-Davydenko yesterday. If Baghdatis doesn't start quick and get himself "engaged" in the match, Ferrer will roll him up quick and frustrate the hell out of him with his defense. With these prices again you have to look at the realistic chances someone has of winning a best of five against said person. All the big favorites are going to have ridiculous prices, but that doesn't mean the underdog has a chance to legitimately win.

[oddtodd]

Def. agree that we could be looking at a 3 rounder for ferrer, but at this price im still gonna put a bit on Baghdatis ML. He's always been a bit of an enigma, beating both fed/nadal in 2010 when they were looking unstoppable. The ups and downs in his career have been quite drastic and this could be one of his Ups. Only have $75 on it. Not too worried about the loss, its been quite a profitable open for me so far.

[brandoc]

Baggy was awful against Ramos, looking tired and worn and made a bunch of UEs as a result. Not much better (from what I saw) against Ito either. Ferrer is Ferrer and I think his style will frustrate Baggy all day.Was considering the handicap but don't see much edge at -7 games as Ferrer is not immune to giving up breaks when closing out sets.

[MagicDiceFlow]

ya, it would take a magical performance. But Bag has looked in very good form this year as well. For your point, ferrer's non big4 losses last year were to belluci, nishikori, benneteau, wawrinka, and istomin. None to me stand out as big servers.

Those losses you mentioned above were in non grand slam events. All of the big four Djoker/Federer/Murray/Nadal have lost to non top 10 players this year but when its grand slam time, its a totally different match. Ferrer turns it up to an insanely focused mode come Slam time and if you look at his performance last year in slams, NO ONE outside of the big four has beaten him in slams....Ferrer puts in monster effort in slams:


US Open, NY, U.S.A.; 27.08.2012; GS; Outdoor: Hard; Draw: 128

Round	Opponent	Ranking	Score
R128	Kevin Anderson (RSA)	34	W 6-4, 6-2, 7-6(3)	Stats
R64	Igor Sijsling (NED)	78	W 6-2, 6-3, 7-6(12)	Stats
R32	Lleyton Hewitt (AUS)	125	W 7-6(9), 4-6, 6-3, 6-0	Stats
R16	Richard Gasquet (FRA)	14	W 7-5, 7-6(2), 6-4	Stats
Q	Janko Tipsarevic (SRB)	9	W 6-3, 6-7(5), 2-6, 6-3, 7-6(4)	Stats
S	Novak Djokovic (SRB)	2	L 6-2, 1-6, 4-6, 2-6	Stats

This Event Points: 720, ATP Ranking: 5, Prize Money: $475,000

Wimbledon, Great Britain; 25.06.2012; GS; Outdoor: Grass; Draw: 128

Round	Opponent	Ranking	Score
R128	Dustin Brown (GER)	164	W 7-6(5), 6-4, 6-4	Stats
R64	Kenny De Schepper (FRA)	160	W 7-6(1), 6-2, 6-4	Stats
R32	Andy Roddick (USA)	25	W 2-6, 7-6(8), 6-4, 6-3	Stats
R16	Juan Martin Del Potro (ARG)	9	W 6-3, 6-2, 6-3	Stats
Q	Andy Murray (GBR)	4	L 7-6(5), 6-7(6), 4-6, 6-7(4)	Stats

This Event Points: 360, ATP Ranking: 5, Prize Money: £145,000

Roland Garros, France; 27.05.2012; GS; Outdoor: Clay; Draw: 128

Round	Opponent	Ranking	Score
R128	Lukas Lacko (SVK)	64	W 6-3, 6-4, 6-1	Stats
R64	Benoit Paire (FRA)	69	W 6-3, 6-3, 6-2	Stats
R32	Mikhail Youzhny (RUS)	31	W 6-0, 6-2, 6-2	Stats
R16	Marcel Granollers (ESP)	23	W 6-3, 6-2, 6-0	Stats
Q	Andy Murray (GBR)	4	W 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-2	Stats
S	Rafael Nadal (ESP)	2	L 2-6, 2-6, 1-6	Stats

This Event Points: 720, ATP Ranking: 6, Prize Money: €310,000

Australian Open, Australia; 16.01.2012; GS; Outdoor: Hard; Draw: 128

Round	Opponent	Ranking	Score
R128	Rui Machado (POR)	70	W 6-1, 6-4, 6-2	Stats
R64	Ryan Sweeting (USA)	68	W 6-7(4), 6-2, 3-6, 6-2, 6-3	Stats
R32	Juan Ignacio Chela (ARG)	29	W 7-5, 6-2, 6-1	Stats
R16	Richard Gasquet (FRA)	18	W 6-4, 6-4, 6-1	Stats
Q	Novak Djokovic (SRB)	1	L 4-6, 6-7(4), 1-6	Stats

[MagicDiceFlow]

Take a look at how many straight set wins Ferrer's got in slams ....total dominance against guys outside the top 10.

To straight set Del Potro at Wimbledon is an impressive feat.

It's not only clay, Ferrer has become a master in almost any surface.

[MUHerd37]

Bags looked horrible against Ramos. He shouldn't have won that match. Ferrer just doesn't give up. Baghdatis has nothing to really bother Ferrer. He does a pretty good serve but Ferrer is one of the best returners in the game. Baghdatis lacks the power with his groundstrokes.

[Sharp Snake]

I think you guys may be giving Ferrer just a tad too much credit here. He did not look all that great against Smyczek after the first set. Granted, he handled his business and took the match, he worked pretty hard for it. Similar thing applied to the match against Rochus. Seems like nit-picking when someone wins in straight sets, but he didnt dominate him, say Djokovic/Harrison style.

I still think he wins here, and probably easily but if someone wanted to take a shot at Baggy here at around 6 or 7:1 odds I wouldn't necessarily blame them.

[ThaTopMoron]

Ferrer ML dropping a lot

[Sharp Snake]

Ferrer ML dropping a lot

It's because the internet read my post

[MagicDiceFlow]

The only player outside of the big four that has a possibility of beating Ferrer in a slam is someone like Berdych or Del Potro. They have weapons that can hurt Ferrer.

Baghdatis and the rest of the field can forget about it ......another day at the office today for Ferrer.

Donate your money to red cross, it has a better chance of good usage.

[Sharp Snake]

The only player outside of the big four that has a possibility of beating Ferrer in a slam is someone like Berdych or Del Potro. They have weapons that can hurt Ferrer.

Baghdatis and the rest of the field can forget about it ......another day at the office today for Ferrer.

Donate your money to red cross, it has a better chance of good usage.

I disagree here. Tsonga, Berdych, Del Potro are all around 50/50 bets with Ferrer I think, but Tipsarevic and Ferrer had an absolute classic match in the US Open this past year that could have gone either way so I'd throw his name out there as a possible name, as well as any hot powerful player, ala Isner or Raonic. Granted, I'm not saying they'd be favorites or anything, but that have the arsenal to beat him on the right day.

[MagicDiceFlow]

I disagree here. Tsonga, Berdych, Del Potro are all around 50/50 bets with Ferrer I think, but Tipsarevic and Ferrer had an absolute classic match in the US Open this past year that could have gone either way so I'd throw his name out there as a possible name, as well as any hot powerful player, ala Isner or Raonic. Granted, I'm not saying they'd be favorites or anything, but that have the arsenal to beat him on the right day.

Again, we're talking about beating Ferrer in a slam best of five not a smaller tournament. In his current form, Ferrer has crushed the outer #6 and above field in EVERY slam the past 12 months.

Also Tsonga shouldnt be mentioned in the same class as Berdych and Del Potro. No where near as strong mentally and groundstrokes not on par with Berdych and DP.....different class of player.

Isner and Raonic....you're joking right? Those two are not "powerful" players as you quote. They have a powerful serve but their complete game is crap. Those two yetis have the most unstable and clumsy groundstrokes of anyone in the top #15.

If any of those players you mentioned above happen to play Ferrer in any slam event, I'll lay even money with you all day long if you think they're only a 50/50 chance against the spaniard.

[Sharp Snake]

youre not listening. to give players like Isner or Raonic "zero chance" as you've mentioned just isnt true. I realize they may be as big as +400 dogs but on the right day, they have the ammo to do it. No one is talking about being favored to beat Ferrer (at least I wasnt, and you werent originally).

Im not necessarily putting Tsonga in the same breath as those two, but I will say that he can beat Ferrer on any given day. I'd say he could beat him 3-4 times out of 10.

Ferrer had an awesome year. No doubt about it. I love his game and his attitude, but if he has an off day there are a handful of guys that can beat him, thats all.

[MagicDiceFlow]

It wasnt just an awesome year.....Ferrer has been THE best player outside of the big 4 for the past several years.

$17 million prize money
19 titles
495-247 win/loss

I would say thats more than an awesome year .

[Sharp Snake]

It wasnt just an awesome year.....if you've been following him, Ferrer's been rock solid for the past several years.

I actually have been and last year was an awesome year, the previous couple have been "rock solid". Pretty big difference. Man, you're something else.

[Sharp Snake]

The only player outside of the big four that has a possibility of beating Ferrer in a slam is someone like Berdych or Del Potro. They have weapons that can hurt Ferrer.

Back the original claim.... what's a possibility? +600 or less? +400? We're not talking about a coin-flip here.

If you give me an open ended bet where I can have any player outside of the top 4 and Del Potro and Berdych against Ferrer at +500 odds, I'll do it in a heartbeat.

[MagicDiceFlow]

I disagree here. Tsonga, Berdych, Del Potro are all around 50/50 bets with Ferrer I think, but Tipsarevic and Ferrer had an absolute classic match in the US Open this past year that could have gone either way so I'd throw his name out there as a possible name, as well as any hot powerful player, ala Isner or Raonic. Granted, I'm not saying they'd be favorites or anything, but that have the arsenal to beat him on the right day.

What you are saying here is that Ferrer is a 50/50 bet with any of those three players (even money) .....50/50 means even money at every book i know not +500 ....lol.

[Sharp Snake]

What you are saying here is that Ferrer is a 50/50 bet with any of those three players (even money) .....50/50 means even money at every book i know not +500 ....lol.

youre cherry picking...YOUR claim was that outside of those two named players, NO ONE else had a POSSIBILITY of beating Ferrer. I'm asking, what number is "a possibility" ? technically, it would be even as high as a 1 % chance, but I'm not that big of an asshole to hold you to that, so would you say 20 % chance is a possibility?

[MagicDiceFlow]

It's kind of lame what we're arguing about here so I'll just drop it.

We're all here to try and share ideas for the end result ....try to pound the books and make some money.

Best of luck on your plays SS.

[Sharp Snake]

Thanks MDF...you too man

[ThaTopMoron]

Got a parlay that is now riding on Ferrer taking care of business

[iifold]

Where's Patty Vendito? He wants to make manlove to Ferrer...

If anyone knows who will win, it's Patty...

[face]

baggy with lazy error on set point. bet he wishes he had that one back.

[MUHerd37]

Bags is/was way too inconsistent.