1.10.13: I spy!

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #1
    1.10.13: I spy!
    Australian Open Qualifiers
    Struff +125
    The German draws the more experienced, yet still young Dutchman de Bakker. Both won their opening round quali in different fashion. de Bakker had few issues with his Ukranian opponent, using his serve to dominate for most of the match. Struff had to work harder against a competent Dutchman Huta-Galung. He did a good job prevailing in three, picking apart the 2nd serve. Struff got really hot at the end of 2012 beating the likes of Mannarino, Berankis and Bachinger on indoor hard courts. He also pushed Jarkko Nieminen to three sets in the Helsinki Challenger. de Bakker has been struggling off and on with a back injury since December that he admitted still bothered him at times in the opener in qualis. It apparently hampers his ability to bend and hit the backhand at lower angles. Struff is tall and lanky like de Bakker Conditions will be hot and windy today, so if Struff can extend this match and make de Bakker work - the heat could take its toll perhaps.

    Reid +180 *0.5 unit
    Local Aussie hope against the German clay courter Reister. Both breezed through their openers. Reister more impressive over the American Kudla in straights. Reid demolished Brazilian Hochevar in straights. Should be a good confidence boost for Reid who had lost in qualis in Brisbane and Sydney. Reid is usually competitive in these settings early in the Australian tournaments and that means a chance against Reister who rarely plays on hard courts and could be prone to the conditions effecting him whereas Reid might have the advantage with dealing with those.
  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #2
    Adding this ...

    Tomic to Win ATP Sydney Title +175
    See Seppi as a very winnable match since he beat him already in the Hopman Cup. That would set him up against either Anderson or Benneteau potentially and give a hedge opp if he makes it.
    Comment
    • EaglesPhan36
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-06-06
      • 71662

      #3
      ATP Auckland: Querrey-Kohlschreiber Over 23.5 [-117]
      Courts continuing to play very quick here. Two solid servers. Kohlschreiber has already played two tie breakers in two matches. Querrey played his 1st yesterday against Levine and has only been broken once - offering just the one break opportunity. This one should yield lots of holds of serve. With that in mind, this could still get done in two sets and with both players going strong - this could go three.
      Comment
      • JNic
        SBR MVP
        • 01-03-10
        • 4272

        #4
        Great De Bakker fade
        Comment
        • EaglesPhan36
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-06-06
          • 71662

          #5
          Australian Open Qualifiers
          Glushko -130
          Like the Israeli in this spot against Mrdeza. Both have shown skill on this surface on the ITF level in the past, but Glushko has the experience edge. She's been through the qualis process at Slams several times, including making the main draw at the US Open. If she can get enough looks at it, Mrdeza's 2nd serve was very weak yesterday and should be pounded for points. Figures to be a key stat for both.
          Comment
          • EaglesPhan36
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 12-06-06
            • 71662

            #6
            Originally posted by JNic
            Great De Bakker fade
            Yeah dude wore down quickly after the 1st set. Also get a better price right when it was booked as late money pushed de Bakker out to I think -160 or so and gave Struff a 25 cent boost from +100 to +125.
            Comment
            • STAY STRONG
              SBR MVP
              • 03-07-10
              • 2498

              #7
              EP do you like Stephens tonight?
              Comment
              • EaglesPhan36
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 12-06-06
                • 71662

                #8
                Tough call. I thought she was very lucky to win last night. I think she is a better overall player than Vesnina, but that doesn't always equal a win. Weather looks like it is nice in Hobart, so I don't know that fatigue is going to be a major problem even after a longer match yesterday for Stephens. Seems like more of a coin flip and I try to steer clear of those.
                Comment
                • Fidel
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 01-12-12
                  • 116

                  #9
                  Monfils thoughts vs Ferrer at +400? This guy seems to have so much potential, if he could just get rid of the circus act. 3-0 h2h also
                  Comment
                  • JNic
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-03-10
                    • 4272

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Fidel
                    Monfils thoughts vs Ferrer at +400? This guy seems to have so much potential, if he could just get rid of the circus act. 3-0 h2h also
                    Ferrer in 2
                    Comment
                    • EaglesPhan36
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 12-06-06
                      • 71662

                      #11
                      No read on Monfils still. I think he flirted with danger a lot against Haas. I think he saved 14/17 break points. Ferrer will probably pound those into breaks if given out again.

                      Querrey struggling just enough to get broken today. Over has no chance. Wish I had bucked up and gone with Kohlschreiber. Thought about it because the price just was not set very well. Should have been maybe a pick 'em, not Querrey at -160 or so.
                      Comment
                      • Fidel
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 01-12-12
                        • 116

                        #12
                        Thanks guys. I know Gael is an error machine, but the more i think about it I like the ML price here for a small play. I think he's healthy and motivated to bounce back from the injury, also little Lu was powering David all over the court last match and took a set.
                        Comment
                        • JNic
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-03-10
                          • 4272

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Fidel
                          Thanks guys. I know Gael is an error machine, but the more i think about it I like the ML price here for a small play. I think he's healthy and motivated to bounce back from the injury, also little Lu was powering David all over the court last match and took a set.
                          Well Gael looked like an idiot in my opinion in both of his wins against Kohlschreiber and Haas, both Germans folded. Gaels serve though has been unreal and I watched both of those matches and the serve bailed him out every single service game. Every single rally will be really troubling, Ferrer is going to pound the corners with his forehand and completely control this
                          Comment
                          • Fidel
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 01-12-12
                            • 116

                            #14
                            ...And maybe the biggest workhorse in tennis will want to take a breather before the Open. Wishful thinking I know, but he is getting older.
                            Comment
                            • Fidel
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 01-12-12
                              • 116

                              #15
                              Originally posted by JNic
                              Well Gael looked like an idiot
                              He usually does, but then he hits those shots that are jaw droppers.
                              Comment
                              • JNic
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-03-10
                                • 4272

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Fidel
                                ...And maybe the biggest workhorse in tennis will want to take a breather before the Open. Wishful thinking I know, but he is getting older.
                                Monfils beat him in 3 BIG matches, 2 french opens and Davis Cup quarters. Ferrer will take his revenge
                                Comment
                                • EaglesPhan36
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-06-06
                                  • 71662

                                  #17
                                  Surprised Kohli got broken. Looks like a TB to see if Sambo can get it to a 3rd and cash this over.
                                  Comment
                                  • JNic
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-03-10
                                    • 4272

                                    #18
                                    Querrey looks really good, I think he is going to cruise into the 4th round of Aussie
                                    Comment
                                    • JNic
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-03-10
                                      • 4272

                                      #19
                                      Kohlschreiber is actually in top form, if he doesn't close out this tiebreak it will destroy him mentally
                                      Comment
                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-06-06
                                        • 71662

                                        #20
                                        Crushed Querrey. Nice TB dipshit.
                                        Comment
                                        • hmichaelt
                                          SBR Rookie
                                          • 01-05-13
                                          • 27

                                          #21
                                          monfils +400? seems kinda tempting, i dunno. ferrer got worked by davydenko last week
                                          Comment
                                          • JNic
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-03-10
                                            • 4272

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by hmichaelt
                                            monfils +400? seems kinda tempting, i dunno. ferrer got worked by davydenko last week
                                            Try reading above...
                                            Comment
                                            • hmichaelt
                                              SBR Rookie
                                              • 01-05-13
                                              • 27

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by JNic
                                              Try reading above...
                                              just saw. my bad
                                              Comment
                                              • JNic
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-03-10
                                                • 4272

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by hmichaelt
                                                just saw. my bad
                                                If you wanna fade Ferrer you need something special like Davydenko in Doha
                                                Comment
                                                • MagicDiceFlow
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-15-12
                                                  • 4585

                                                  #25
                                                  Wasnt even close......that Ferrer score looks like a WTA score.

                                                  Monfils got pimped.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                    • 71662

                                                    #26
                                                    Mrdeza hasn't held serve once. Glushko gave the first break of the 2nd set right back though, but then broke back again. If she can consolidate here, that should be done. She bageled her in the 1st set.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                      • 71662

                                                      #27
                                                      Now GLushko can't hold serve. WTA at it's finest.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                        • 71662

                                                        #28
                                                        Well Glushko has gone to absolute shit.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Optional
                                                          Administrator
                                                          • 06-10-10
                                                          • 61613

                                                          #29
                                                          WTA... you're still well in it
                                                          .
                                                          Comment
                                                          • EaglesPhan36
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 12-06-06
                                                            • 71662

                                                            #30
                                                            Nah, she's toast. She could have gone up 2-0 in the 2nd and I think that would have been that, but she started playing poorly and letting the other broad gain some confidence. She never recovered even though there have been breaks galore the whole match. Ah well.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • EaglesPhan36
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 12-06-06
                                                              • 71662

                                                              #31
                                                              Well not a great day, but the Tomic future pays dividends. Anderson is at +130, so can lock up some nice profit regardless of tonight's winner.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • JayDelight729
                                                                SBR Hustler
                                                                • 12-04-10
                                                                • 58

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                                Well not a great day, but the Tomic future pays dividends. Anderson is at +130, so can lock up some nice profit regardless of tonight's winner.
                                                                I also have a Tomic future... mine's at +700.

                                                                I'm thinking of playing Anderson at 2 units.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                                  • 71662

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Sounds sexy.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Optional
                                                                    Administrator
                                                                    • 06-10-10
                                                                    • 61613

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I tailed your Tomic future yesterday too. Was a smart play. Think I'll just ride it home though.
                                                                    .
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                                      • 71662

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Good luck. I'll be rooting for Tomic for the higher payout, but with Anderson's serve and this being Tomic's 1st tour level final - hedging is a must for me.
                                                                      Comment
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