1.9.11: I Spy!

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP Sydney: Harrison +110
Harrison has a good rhythm in Sydney this week, working through qualis and a couple rounds. Admittedly, he beat a less than 100% Isner - but his serve has been solid this week and his confidence should be boosted from losing in Brisbane. Benneteau is his draw. Benneteau has a good record in Sydney, but he's looked sloppy and inconsistent in two matches this year. Nieminen crushed him in Brisbane and he wasn't clean on-serve, broken five times. He got on a roll here in winning the title last season, but I think he was playing a lot better. Price to me is reflective of the level at where both are at. If Harrison isn't satisfied with just getting some form - I think he rates a chance.

ATP Auckland Parlay: Kohlschreiber-Malisse Over 22.5 [-113]
While Malisse's effort level may come into question after he pronounced himself prepared for the Australian Open after his 2nd win this week, the fast conditions + solid serves should produce some good holds today. Kohlschreiber was broken twice against Falla, but got more comfortable as the match went on. Malisse showed that same improvement from Round 1 to Round 2 where he was not broken at all against Giraldo. Both guys have already played multiple tie break sets in very few matches, so chances are good we could see at least one and give this a boost.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Im already on the Kohlschreiber, P 2-1, for small amount. Putting the amount to cover it on the over. GL to us.

[Optional]

Love the Kohli/Malisse Over. Didn't think of that.

Do you think it's worth splitting the bet between the over and 3 Sets Played @ +160?

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't know. I'm still a little skeptical that Malisse is going to give a full effort. 7-6, 6-4 type of match gets it done in straights for someone. If it was my money, I'd probably just stick with the over since it's not really too juicy currently.

[EaglesPhan36]

Australian Open Qualis
Ilhan -130
Backing the Turk again today. His form continued solid in his opening round win in qualis yesterday. Today he gets the Thai vet Danai Udomchoke. Reading up on Udomchoke, he's not a Thai police cadet and has admitted to poor prep for the Australian swing. He was able to outlast Frenchman Vincent Millot in his opener in three, but was on the ropes in the 3rd for a bit. He's a solid pro, but I'm going with the guy who has better prep and form at the moment in what will likely be a good battle.

[Optional]

I don't know. I'm still a little skeptical that Malisse is going to give a full effort. 7-6, 6-4 type of match gets it done in straights for someone. If it was my money, I'd probably just stick with the over since it's not really too juicy currently.

Malisse looking in great touch and committed so far

[ItsMeMrMattE]

First set looking great for the over. and ya Malisse looking like he has a good shot at winning one set.

[EaglesPhan36]

Big moment comes when whomever wins the 1st set - then we get to see commitment from the person who is down or not.

[EaglesPhan36]

Australian Open Qualifiers
Pouille +210 *0.5 unit
Small shot on the young Frenchman who whipped the local Aussie Groth in the first round. This came a week after Groth beat him at the Noumea Challenger. That shows good ability to change tactics and improve. He also trained in the off-season with some of the big French guys like Gasquet and even worked out with David Ferrer in Valencia. This kid knocked off the 2012 Junior Player of the Year at a Futures Event on a hard surface in December and had some solid success at those Futures Events. Just a small shot here, but Bemelmans can be had if he doesn't hold up on-serve ... this kid will have to serve big himself though to compete the entire match.

[hmichaelt]

istomin +160 vs anderson. k anderson struggled against bedene, and istomin crushed verdasco

[EaglesPhan36]

There's the let down from Malisse. Can still cash the over, but he can't slip up at all any more.

[EaglesPhan36]

Gonna get that 7-6, 6-4 result for the over.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

good call on the over.

[matt05man]

Great play EP.

[Optional]

I don't know. I'm still a little skeptical that Malisse is going to give a full effort. 7-6, 6-4 type of match gets it done in straights for someone. If it was my money, I'd probably just stick with the over since it's not really too juicy currently.

[EaglesPhan36]

Harrison didn't have it tonight. Blah.

[Optional]

Did you see Istomin took a short medical timeout with a sore right shoulder or neck early in the 2nd set?

He was grimacing about it.

Would not be surprised to see this one end early.

[EaglesPhan36]

WTA Sydney: Cibulkova-Kerber Over 21 [-120]
The diminutive one seems to have hit her stride this week after she was punked by Sloane Stephens last week to open the season in Brisbane. Steadier on serve and doing a good job of winning key points when she's up against break opps. Kerber has been steady, but not spectacular here. I think she took advantage of an exhausted Kuznetsova yesterday, but she was a little iffy in that match for a little bit. I think this plays out to be an entertaining match as both look to be in search of going deeper here and not thinking yet about Melbourne.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

WTA Sydney: Cibulkova-Kerber Over 21 [-120]
The diminutive one seems to have hit her stride this week after she was punked by Sloane Stephens last week to open the season in Brisbane. Steadier on serve and doing a good job of winning key points when she's up against break opps. Kerber has been steady, but not spectacular here. I think she took advantage of an exhausted Kuznetsova yesterday, but she was a little iffy in that match for a little bit. I think this plays out to be an entertaining match as both look to be in search of going deeper here and not thinking yet about Melbourne.

Im on cibulkova (+135). would be playing the over instead but my book doesnt offer it.

[EaglesPhan36]

I was originally headed that way or Cibulkova +3. But looked and thought this might be better overall.

[STAY STRONG]

EP can I get your thoughts on Haas and Tomic tonight? Thinking about throwing them in a parlay for some late night action. Thanks.

[davopnz]

Monfils to smoke haas-been

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Cibulkova is lookin fresh this first set.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

EP can I get your thoughts on Haas and Tomic tonight? Thinking about throwing them in a parlay for some late night action. Thanks.

This is the parlay im going with tonight.

Tomic, B -280
Berankis, R -325
Brands, D -450

[EaglesPhan36]

I have decided I have no idea what Monfils is doing early in the season and won't be touching his matches. He's in the Dolgpolov category for me. If you knew ahead of time that the effort level would be there, I'd back Monfils a lot when he was a dog. Haas is more consistent. It should be entertaining. Tomic is playing really well and full of confidence.

[davopnz]

siezling had 30 unforced errors again hass. monfils would smoke this fool

[STAY STRONG]

Thanks EP. Hoping Haas comes through for me.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nailed my first two totals of the season, that feels good! Split the quali plays, but made out with some profit since the pot shot on the young dog was a smaller stake.

Match I am really looking forward to later is Baghdatis v. Delpo in the Kooyong exhibition.

[gangeriver]

Stefan Seiffert odds were -190 when open the lines but right now it is -245 ~ -250
One of my book (tempobet) offers still -200

is it +EV really?

[EaglesPhan36]

A lot of those quali matches the favorites have been getting pounded. Lots of people probably thinking they are an easy pay day or using them for parlays.