1.8.13: I Spy!

[EaglesPhan36]

Australian Open Qualis

1. Parlay: Brands + Ilhan [+107]
Brands hasn't always been a consistent performer, but his form in Doha is hard to overlook. He knocked off Chardy & Monfils and played Gasquet tough in a two set loss, 7-5, 7-5. His serve was steady most of the week and he played aggressive. If he does that against Dancevic today, he stands a good shot to move to the next round of qualis. Dancevic's career has been chock full of injury & inconsistency. At his best, his serve will keep this tight. But he's prone to service games where his 2nd serve gets demolished and he drops serve. I don't expect it easy for Brands, but confidence is his friend. Ilhan has been in Melbourne training and rates the better hard court player than Mektic. Both players lost in Doha qualis last week, but Ilhan was more impressive with a win over Copil and a hard fought loss to Brands.

[tevari]

So many juicy ATP/WTA plays and you're playing qualies....that's the EP I know. G'luck pal.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP Auckland: Lacko +100
Lacko showed no ill effects from the ankle injury picked up last week as he demolished Lorenzi in straights yesterday. Bellucci is his draw today. Bellucci weather a slow start to take the donation from Goffin in the opening round. I don't think Bellucci played particularly great, Goffin just did not adjust to the conditions and Bellucci played a bit more consistent. Lacko has shown a nice serve so far with his run in Doha and now to start in Auckland. He rates more consistent on this surface, although Bellucci can beat a lot of players on this surface if he serve helps propel him.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP Sydney: Tomic -155
I'm drinking the kool aid with Tomic right now. To this point, improved fitness and improved power & serving have pushed Tomic to a great start to the season. He dispatched of Matosevic quickly and now faces someone in Mayer who has owned him in three prior matches. This is a massive test to his new resolve. This is one for me if Tomic is engaged from the jump, his new attitude should help him over a guy in Mayer who can beat the best - but also as seen last week, can go from hero to zero from match to match.

[Optional]

With you on Lacko but still can't lay juice on Tomic... yet.

[hmichaelt]

istomin +125 vs verdasco?

[EaglesPhan36]

Typical Brands after I get excited about him. Serve v. serve and he blows the TB in the 1st.

[STAY STRONG]

Rolling with you on Tomic. GL EP!

[EaglesPhan36]

Brands breaks to open the 2nd, hopefully Dancevic goes into his more typical turd mode now.

Interested to see the man, the myth, the legend - James Blake today against Copil. Blake says he's as healthy as he has been in a long time, but he's also 33. Not sure how good his prep is here. He trained at UCLA with some fellow US players and Roddick.

[hmichaelt]

millman +230 vs seppi?

[EaglesPhan36]

Seen a lot of people on Millman. No opinion. Seppi is one of those cats that can just step in and win even after not playing all that well last week.

[davopnz]

brian baker 2.10 to beat levine looks good to me

[JNic]

istomin +125 vs verdasco?

Damn, Istomin was sooo bad in his last match besides his serve. Nice 6-3 set for him to start off, I really hope he has a much better season than his horrible end to the season last year

[hmichaelt]

Damn, Istomin was sooo bad in his last match besides his serve. Nice 6-3 set for him to start off, I really hope he has a much better season than his horrible end to the season last year

i dont trust verdasco, too shaky imo

[EaglesPhan36]

Parlay alive after a shaky 3rd set from Brands where he rallied down from 2-5 to win 7-5. Way to do it the hard way fukstick.

[JNic]

It looks like Lacko might have the makings of breakout season, gotta see his AO draw first, I really want the guy to keep going

[JNic]

Uh-oh speaking of qualies, Steve Johnson is tied 9-9 in the 3rd to some random Aussie

[EaglesPhan36]

Lacko!

[EaglesPhan36]

Australian Open Qualis

2. Stebe -160
Giving the German a look here. He definitely regressed in 2012 after his breakout campaign in 2011 that saw him get to the Challenger Finals. Even amidst a dreary 2012, he still showed ability - he fought Hewitt hard for four sets in the Australian Open before losing and dumped Troicki out of the US Open in the 1st round. He gets Ignatik who is a talent, having won a Challenger Title on hard courts last Fall. However, he has no match play to open the season whereas Stebe got comfortable in Chennai with a run through qualis and a 1st round win over Sjisling before losing to Wawrinka in the 2nd round. Ignatik can certainly push him as they split two matches 1-1 in 2011 in back-2-back tournaments on hard courts. Ignatik crushed Stebe and then Stebe survived in three sets. In Stebe's defense, the first meeting came a tournament after Stebe had worked through qualis and won a title - so fatigue was large. Willing to go with form here vs. no match play.

[STAY STRONG]

EP, is Na Li pretty safe to toss in ML parlay with Tomic?

[EaglesPhan36]

As long as she gives two shits, you'd think so. Great form and a tournament she has crushed the last two years.

[EaglesPhan36]

One more. Will be one of the late matches in the sessions. Good spot check. Would probably advise if you like it to find a one set book with Farah's status still iffy.

Australian Open Qualis: de La Nava -175
de La Nava is going against Robert Farah who has complained of consistent pain in his right wrist for months. It forced him from Brisbane last week and he has tweeted several times about it. de La Nava didn't look lost in Doha qualis losing in three tough sets to Brands in the final round. Certainly not his best surface, but he ran through to the final round of qualis at last year's US Open and should have the upper hand against a wounded opponent.

[EaglesPhan36]

Parlay just about done with Ilhan a game away from closing out the 2nd set. Qualis kids, don't skip 'em over - there is money to be made.

[sando]

ATP Sydney: Tomic -155
ATP Auckland: Lacko +100

With you on these. Let's do this.

[EaglesPhan36]

Hoping Bernie brings the thunder again. Lacko looked real solid again.

[STAY STRONG]

As long as she gives two shits, you'd think so. Great form and a tournament she has crushed the last two years.

Thanks EP, going to give it a shot.

[w@lt]

Awesome info EP36, thanks. If I may ask, how do you come across these injuries, etc?

[Jrod124]

Nice hits so far EP

[sando]

Hoping Bernie brings the thunder again. Lacko looked real solid again.

Crazy that we're backing a guy at short odds who has been completely dominated in the 3 previous encounters, however the little brat is playing at a nice level ATM, and Mayer is definitely in my fade book.

[EaglesPhan36]

Awesome info EP36, thanks. If I may ask, how do you come across these injuries, etc?

Some just from googling them. The Farah one there was a story in Spanish about it, google translate is my friend.

[tevari]

TI burial in progress with Millman.

[EaglesPhan36]

Heh. Yeah noticed that one although I think dog players mostly have to be ahead if they managed their plays well these first two weeks.

Seppi was too crafty for me to go against. Always capable of doing what he is doing so far.

[EaglesPhan36]

Tomic's serve is tip top so far, think he has lost two points on his serve in five games.

[EaglesPhan36]

Good recovery from Tomic in the TB after dropping the 1st point, worked his way back and took it.

[w@lt]

Millman takes a set! Please, please, please come through! For some reason I was feeling ballsy and went big on him.