Davis Cup final 2008: Argentina-Spain

**meganie** · 11-20-08, 04:08 PM

Some average odds (mean over some books):
Nalbandian (-430) - Ferrer (+300)
Del Potro (-400) - Lopez (+270)

Argentina (-500) - Spain (+300)

**veto** · 11-20-08, 05:18 PM

I will be so screwed if argentina doesnt pull out a victory.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 11-20-08, 08:41 PM

Money is piling on the Argies. Best prices now:

Argentina -450 @Jennings, Spain +425 @Bet24

Fat Dave -400 @Ladbrokes/Intertops, Ferrer +333@Expekt

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-20-08, 10:20 PM

Yeah simply no value anywhere that I see for tomorrow. Set betting isn't even a viable option here with the 5 set format because that's even tougher to pick now. Obviously if you're going for the bomb upset, Lopez is the only choice to make for Spain tomorrow. Ferrer should get beaten easily. Lopez make things a little interesting, but probably not enough to bother Del Potro that much.

**meganie** · 11-21-08, 03:39 PM

Del Potro is playing absolute

.

**meganie** · 11-21-08, 03:48 PM

Del Potro with injury timeout.

**meganie** · 11-21-08, 04:04 PM

If Argentina doesn't win the doubles, I'm screwed. Don't think that Del Potro can start (healthy) on Sunday. And don't think that Acasuso/Calleri could beat Verdasco/(Ferrer).

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 11-21-08, 05:03 PM

I think you'll be OK :-) Half the top 100 could turn up drunk, off their skulls on crack, wearing a blindfold, serving underhand, playing with a frying pan instead of a racket, and still beat Ferrer. Given that, the pressure on Verdasco will be fairly severe, and mental strength is not exactly something he's associated with.

**meganie** · 11-21-08, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

I think you'll be OK :-) Half the top 100 could turn up drunk, off their skulls on crack, wearing a blindfold, serving underhand, playing with a frying pan instead of a racket, and still beat Ferrer. Given that, the pressure on Verdasco will be fairly severe, and mental strength is not exactly something he's associated with.

I normally agree with you, but are you serious this time? We're talking about Jose "I only play good on clay" Acasuso, who recently lost to calibers like Bohli, Serra and Oscar Hernandez and Agustin "winning on indoors is for losers" Calleri, who didn't win one single match on indoors and only won two matches since the begin of the hard court season against Austin Krajicek (wtf is this??) and Devin Mullings (wtf is this??).
I don't have a good feeling at all. Just hoping that Spain will send Ferrer for the maybe deciding match and I'm praying for Del Potro's health. The only good thing is that Lopez will play Nalbandian and not one of the other three.
Dear Jose, dear Agustin, if you win your doubles match, I will forget all the money you cost me with your choking...Regards with best wishes from meganie, HeeeHAWWWW and veto

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 11-21-08, 06:30 PM

Fraid not, just trying to be reassuring. I never ever bet doubles so haven't a clue how to judge that (and especially so when it's singles players playing doubles).

Having said that, think of this: if there's one player you need to lose for your bet to cash, there's nobody better for the job than Ferrer.

You quote all the junk Acasuso loses to, but Ferrer lost to Sela in Beijing, Nishikori at the US Open, Lapentti in Cincinatti. He very nearly lost to Takao "who the hell is he?" Suzuki (world no 700 at the time I think) in Japan in September, and had first round exits in Paris and Madrid. Except for that Davis Cup match on clay vs Roddick, he hasn't beaten a top50 player in 5 months.... and that as Andreev on grass.

In the ancient art of losing tennis matches, Ferrer yields to no man.

Having said all that, Callieri sucks something awful also. That's going to be a painful match to watch.....

**meganie** · 11-21-08, 06:53 PM

I was referring to singles

Yeah, I know how bad Ferrer was, but the difference is still Ferrer is a top 15 player and Acasuso isn't. I mean, Ferrer achieved at least something the last couple of years on hard court.
And I'm afraid that the coach will send out Verdasco after Ferrer losing that badly (didn't see the match, so can't say anything about his performance). I know, Verdasco likes to choke, but I can't see much hope, if Acasuso plays.

Well, doubles is surely another thing, see Clement, who is a great doubles players and sucked badly this year in singles. Hopefully they get something together. The issue is just that Verdasco/Lopez play a lot together and they had success.

Let's just hope you're right and I'm wrong with my bad feeling and that Del Potro's injury isn't too serious.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-21-08, 09:02 PM

Damn too bad I didn't throw a little something down on Lopez like I thought about. Nice win. Del Potro obviously is gassed at this point and his toe apparently comes and goes with pain. Would be a monumental upset in Spain could make the fifth rubber mean anything between Nalby & F-Lo.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 11-22-08, 09:31 AM

Looks like they switched Fat Dave in to the doubles to play with Calleri. Odds now 50/50 on this match.

For the title, Argentina -150, Spain +142

Incidentally, anyone know Las Vegas rules on replacement of players in a doubles match? I'd bet on Acasuso/Calleri, not sure if it stands. Did specify an action bet rather than matchbet though, which seems to imply player change doesn't make a difference.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 11-22-08, 11:15 AM

Big Fat Dave looking good so far, they could win here .....

Question is, will he be knackered tomorrow?

**meganie** · 11-22-08, 12:17 PM

YES, Nalby is playing and they won the first set.

Doesn't matter, if he's tired tomorrow, Lopez will be in the same condition (hopefully). Does this mean that Acasuso will play singles?

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 11-22-08, 12:43 PM

Verdasco chokefest. Double-faulted away the last set, and he's going to do it again here.

Apparently tomorrow Del Potro is almost certainly out, barring a medical miracle.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 11-22-08, 12:52 PM

Duh. Calleri completely blew up, gifted Spain the set.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 11-22-08, 01:24 PM

Lol! Verdasco serving for the set, double faults it away. What a tool.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 11-22-08, 01:33 PM

Spain have blown a double break here. The crowd are MEAN.

Not sure how this has turned around, the Argies were looking horrendous, had given up, were 5-1 down in this set. They hold, then Verdasco does his thing, gifts his service game away, Argies hold, then Lopez blows up also. Crowd are on FIRE, Verdasco/Lopez are getting annoyed at it, crowd mocking every mistake.

Now the announcers are telling the crowd to stfu, and the crowd are booing. Could cost the Argies a penalty point though......

**meganie** · 11-22-08, 01:41 PM

Verdasco at his best...

What's a penalty point though? Does that mean that Spain could get a free point, so it could be tied 3:3?

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 11-22-08, 01:45 PM

It's just a single point, so 15-15 to 15-30. It's something they do if the home crowd is being really nasty, calling out during away team's serve etc.

Not sure what happens if crowd keeps doing it though - does it escalate?

**meganie** · 11-22-08, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

It's just a single point, so 15-15 to 15-30. It's something they do if the home crowd is being really nasty, calling out during away team's serve etc.

Not sure what happens if crowd keeps doing it though - does it escalate?

Thanks. Never saw something like this.
Verdasco is a moron, smiling after they lost a point.

The crowd is singing something with Espagnol... don't know what, are they mocking the Spaniards?

Don't think that the umpire does something like a penalty point, this could really be responsible for some escalation.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 11-22-08, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by meganie

Thanks. Never saw something like this.
Verdasco is a moron, smiling after they lost a point.

The crowd is singing something with Espagnol... don't know what, are they mocking the Spaniards?

Big time :-)

Irony is a Spanish fan tried to annoy Argies by yelling out, worked too. Umpire has no idea what to do, don't think the rule works when an away fan does it.

Argie players got really angry, and have blown the tiebreak now, from 5-1 up.

**meganie** · 11-22-08, 01:54 PM

Urggs, don't know are the greater chokers...Losing the tie break after leading 5-1...

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 11-22-08, 01:57 PM

Turn about:

Verdasco

then
Lopez

then
Argentina

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 11-22-08, 02:12 PM

....and now Nalbandian

Lose serve, and you're down a set and a break. He's 0-30, and he double faults.

Match over, very possibly.

**meganie** · 11-22-08, 02:27 PM

And Verdasco does it again.

The guy will never win something big with his mental weakness.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 11-22-08, 02:28 PM

...and now Verdasco blows it, serving for the match! Captain choke strikes for the third time this match.

Insane match.

**meganie** · 11-22-08, 06:00 PM

Confirmation that Del Potro is out for tomorrow. Acasuso is likely to replace him.

Odds moved from about even to -150 for Spain.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 11-22-08, 06:49 PM

Aha, thanks. The long-awaited whosucksmost contest we all feared, Acasuso vs Ferrer.

**meganie** · 11-22-08, 09:26 PM

I don't get it. Why are the odds now moving to the other direction?

Source is btw: http://www.clarin.com/diario/2008/11...m-01808202.htm
(It's spanish, so you have to use google translator or something else)

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 11-23-08, 12:17 AM

All bet sites seem convinced it's Del Potro vs Ferrer, with Ferrer approx a 40% underdog (not massive, since DP would clearly be playing injured/unfit).

Maybe Argentine coach trying to pull some confusion?

**pimike** · 11-23-08, 01:54 AM

Ferrer has beaten this guy two times. I like Ferrer +160 I put 300 on him.

**pimike** · 11-23-08, 02:01 AM

Nobody like Ferrer here?