Janowicz-Tipsarevic UNDER 23.5 [-110]
From a side standpoint, this is a difficult guesstimate. Janowicz has obviously shown a great nerve this week in beating Cilic & Murray but teetered with a straight sets loss yesterday before Murray folded and this is unchartered territory for the young gun. Tipsarevic played a roller coaster three setter with Monaco that earned him his trip to the Tour Finals. For Janowicz, this will be the 6th straight day of play as he came through qualis. That eventually is going to lead to fatigue where the legs go and the serve follows. Today? Tomorrow? We'll see. Tipsarevic came into Paris off some shoulder soreness that reportedly flares up now and again with no real warning. Rest seems to have helped him. His 2nd serve was what was getting him into trouble yesterday, so it bears watching. Janowicz was broken for the 1st time all week - not shocking because of Murray's return skills - but it also is something to note that his 2nd serve was getting pounded on as well. On top of this, you've got the emotional aspect. I was ready to say Janowicz looks like getting a marquee win won't be a big deal as he followed up maybe his 2nd best win [Cilic] with his top scalp of Murray. However, reading the post-match report - he showed tremendous emotion after winning and talked a lot about sacrifices made by his parents, etc. to get to this point. Making a Masters QF I think was the big deal, not necessarily beating Murray - although a key moment nonetheless. After all that, I do question whether or not he may come out flat today. Mr.T meanwhile has nothing left to do this week. It's his choice now to go for this event or rest for London. If healthy, he has as good a chance as any left in the field. My read here though is that one of these guys is going to be content with their place in this tournament. Certainly this total could be obliterated if both hold serve, but I'm looking at the fatigue of the season and the week mentally & physically as something to consider. Good luck whatever you decide to do with the info.
From a side standpoint, this is a difficult guesstimate. Janowicz has obviously shown a great nerve this week in beating Cilic & Murray but teetered with a straight sets loss yesterday before Murray folded and this is unchartered territory for the young gun. Tipsarevic played a roller coaster three setter with Monaco that earned him his trip to the Tour Finals. For Janowicz, this will be the 6th straight day of play as he came through qualis. That eventually is going to lead to fatigue where the legs go and the serve follows. Today? Tomorrow? We'll see. Tipsarevic came into Paris off some shoulder soreness that reportedly flares up now and again with no real warning. Rest seems to have helped him. His 2nd serve was what was getting him into trouble yesterday, so it bears watching. Janowicz was broken for the 1st time all week - not shocking because of Murray's return skills - but it also is something to note that his 2nd serve was getting pounded on as well. On top of this, you've got the emotional aspect. I was ready to say Janowicz looks like getting a marquee win won't be a big deal as he followed up maybe his 2nd best win [Cilic] with his top scalp of Murray. However, reading the post-match report - he showed tremendous emotion after winning and talked a lot about sacrifices made by his parents, etc. to get to this point. Making a Masters QF I think was the big deal, not necessarily beating Murray - although a key moment nonetheless. After all that, I do question whether or not he may come out flat today. Mr.T meanwhile has nothing left to do this week. It's his choice now to go for this event or rest for London. If healthy, he has as good a chance as any left in the field. My read here though is that one of these guys is going to be content with their place in this tournament. Certainly this total could be obliterated if both hold serve, but I'm looking at the fatigue of the season and the week mentally & physically as something to consider. Good luck whatever you decide to do with the info.