Djokovic ailing with a stomach bug and he's going to move up to #1 regardless of what happens because of Federer skipping Paris and losing a lot of points. Think that makes this a bit open, especially with some guys pushing late for London next week and/or the home Frenchies pulling off some upsets perhaps.
Del Potro +900
Berdych +900
These two really stuck out. The obvious caveat for Del Potro is does he want another long week ahead of the Tour Finals? He's won back-2-back indoor tourneys, beating Federer last week in what had to have been a big break through for him mentally. There shouldn't be a more confident player in Paris this week. If Djokovic's stomach ailment hinders him, Del Potro is there to push through in this quarter although he will have to fight Isner or Llodra and maybe Djokovic himself. With Federer out, the top quarter is Berdych's to lose. He has some tough guys like Gasquet, Simon or a guy who has his number in 2012 - Nishikori ... but he's playing some of his best tennis in the last couple months and could be peaking.
Nishikori +5000
This is an interesting one. Nishikori's ankle was a worry coming in, but he looked fine against Paire. Indoor surfaces are pretty solid for Kei and he may have done better here last year if he hadn't come in off a long week from making the Basel Final. Having Berdych in this quarter might be a boon to Nishikori who has beaten Berdych twice already in 2012. If he did escape this quarter to the semis, it's like Andy Murray would be against him. Speak of which ...
Murray +190
He might be the safe play. He's coming in good form from Shanghai albeit off a long time off. If he finds rhythm early, he could get on a roll. Mathieu is first up and he should eventually break him down. Then young Janowicz and the quarterfinals would pit him against any one of Monaco, Dimitrov, Sjisling or Tipsarevic. A healthy Mr.T would be a tough clash, but all are beatable. You've also got a hedge available whenever needed as Murray should be a healthy favorite through to the semis. I believe from what I have read that the surface is slower compared to other indoor courts and that could suit Murray against some of the big servers as well.
I'm thinking Berdych & Murray for one unit for sure. The other two I outlined here have their advantages, but also obviously hold the longer odds with some question marks.
Del Potro +900
Berdych +900
These two really stuck out. The obvious caveat for Del Potro is does he want another long week ahead of the Tour Finals? He's won back-2-back indoor tourneys, beating Federer last week in what had to have been a big break through for him mentally. There shouldn't be a more confident player in Paris this week. If Djokovic's stomach ailment hinders him, Del Potro is there to push through in this quarter although he will have to fight Isner or Llodra and maybe Djokovic himself. With Federer out, the top quarter is Berdych's to lose. He has some tough guys like Gasquet, Simon or a guy who has his number in 2012 - Nishikori ... but he's playing some of his best tennis in the last couple months and could be peaking.
Nishikori +5000
This is an interesting one. Nishikori's ankle was a worry coming in, but he looked fine against Paire. Indoor surfaces are pretty solid for Kei and he may have done better here last year if he hadn't come in off a long week from making the Basel Final. Having Berdych in this quarter might be a boon to Nishikori who has beaten Berdych twice already in 2012. If he did escape this quarter to the semis, it's like Andy Murray would be against him. Speak of which ...
Murray +190
He might be the safe play. He's coming in good form from Shanghai albeit off a long time off. If he finds rhythm early, he could get on a roll. Mathieu is first up and he should eventually break him down. Then young Janowicz and the quarterfinals would pit him against any one of Monaco, Dimitrov, Sjisling or Tipsarevic. A healthy Mr.T would be a tough clash, but all are beatable. You've also got a hedge available whenever needed as Murray should be a healthy favorite through to the semis. I believe from what I have read that the surface is slower compared to other indoor courts and that could suit Murray against some of the big servers as well.
I'm thinking Berdych & Murray for one unit for sure. The other two I outlined here have their advantages, but also obviously hold the longer odds with some question marks.
