I posted this at another forum just my thoughts on the action, will post here as well. Good Luck guys
Sam Querrey vs. Fernado Verdasco
I will be doing my awards predictions soon and Sam Querrey is certainly a contender for Comeback player of the year. This is a guy who was a top 20 player got hurt and had to build his ranking back up at the challenger level. He has since done that and currently sits at 23 in the world set to play Verdasco in this opening round clash. These guys just played in Beijing a couple of weeks ago with Querrey winning a tight 3 setter. Querrey has played against the Spaniard and even beat him last year when Querrey’s wasn’t at his best. This line sits at -165 and my first read was take the American. Sam 25-15 at tour level hard court events and has made the quarters 2 of the last 3 tournaments he has played in. Verdasco has had 1 quality win since he pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season when took out Nadal on clay at Madrid. He was won matches against lower ranked players, but when he plays a quality opponent he has struggled. I will try Sam at a small price of -165, as Verdasco has had a disappointing season. It is hard to believe he is just 11-9 on hard courts in 2012.
Play: Sam Querrey -165 1x
Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs. Julien Benneteau
There are certain players on the ATP tour that you don’t want to see when you look at your draw. For JWT it is Benneteau. While his H2H against his compatriot is 4-4, Benny has always competed in their 8 clashes. He just seems to feel comfortable out there against Tsonga. These guys haven’t played since 2010 but I am sure the game of Tsonga is fresh in Benneteau’s mind, he knows how to attack him and put him on the defensive. Tsonga should have won the Stockholm title but choked away a set and break lead against Tomas Berdych, he followed that up with a retirement after just 4 games against Xavier Malisse. Tsonga is competed for a World Tour Finals spot and desperately needs a win here but I don’t think it is going to be easy. Benneteau because he has been to inconsistent indoors this season for me. 1 week he is destroying a top 5 player in David Ferrer, the next week he is winning 1 game in a match against Seppi. I do think because of the familiarity he will compete in this match therefore I am playing the over and Benny + the games. If you want to get bold and take the ML I respect but I think because Tsonga needs to find a way to eke out a victory he will do it but he won’t cover.
Play: Over 22.5 -135, Benneteau +3.5 -120 1x
Radek Stepanek vs. Michael Llodra
I don’t know if there is something in the water in France but Llodra is another guy that you just never know what you are going to get from him. If he is serving and volleying well he give even the top guys trouble. I the flipside I have seen him lose on the challenger tour to a nobody. This matchup with Stepanek has been one that has always given him problem. Step holds a 6-1 H2H record and he just beat him in the qualifying for the Basel event. It was a close match and I think Llodra learned a lot from it and take since 2008 Llodra has played well in all 4 matches, including winning his lone encounter vs. the Czech. I am playing Llodra for a couple of reasons: 1. it is difficult to beat someone twice in a 2 week span, it just is, especially when you are talking veterans at this level. 2. Llodra has been really good on indoor surfaces this year and historically throughout his career. 3. The matches Llodra has lost recent have been in deciding tiebreaks which means he is serving well, if he is serving well he is very dangerous. 4. Not the biggest factor but something to consider, he is playing in France, this isn’t the NFL but home country does matter a little bit.
Play: Michael Llodra +150 1x
Jerzy Janowicz vs. Marin Cilic
1st meeting between these two and this one smells like it will fly over. Both guys have been in form this season and the total isn’t that high because Jerzy is not a house hold name. Many people will expect Cilic to roll over the Pole and that will not be the case. Janowicz qualified here and then soundly defeated Kohlschreiber in the opening round. He also made the quarters in two previous indoor events so he playing his best tennis of the year late. Cilic crashed out early to countrymen Ivan Dodig last week in Valencia, in a match in which he was broken numerous times. Janowicz has a above serve and I see this one going to at least 1 tiebreak if not Jerzy being lucky enough to grab a set. Since you can never tell which side of the Croat will show up it is a safer play to take the over.
Play: Over 22.5 -125 1x
Quick Hitters
Bautista-Agut +195 1x
What year is it? Mathieu a -235 favorite is asinine. His run in Basel was a mirage and before that event he was a 3 match losing streak. Bautista-Agut has quietly racked up a 15-3 record indoors on the challenger tour. Worth at shot at +195.
Dolgopolov -3 (-120) 1x
This is an interesting match, Sijsling is the running for challenger player of the year amassing a 40-14 record but just 7-9 on tour events. The Dog nearly won a stacked Valencia tournament last week and is really one of the most talented players on the ATP tour. This is a bold play because of Sijsling’s ability to hold his own serve but I think Dolgo will get enough chances to at worst make this a push. I see a 6-4, 6-4 routine win.
Chardy/Garcia-Lopez-Under 22.5 -110 1x
This is the type of match where the loser of the first set will lose the match. Two headcases struggling to win. The loser of the first set will be thinking "Here we go again" and calmly get dismissed in 2.
Paire +210 1x
Take out a loss to Lorenzi in Austria and Paire has been impressive during the indoor swing. Nishikori hasn’t played a match in 3 weeks so he is bound to have a little rust. I wish my book had first set odds because I am very positive Paire wins the opener. I will hope he can parlay it into a match win.
Berdych -5 (-145) 1x
Seppi is a great story, but Berdych has owned the Italian in 2 previous meetings in this year. Berdych is fresh off his Stockholm title, no reason to expect his form to change here.
Wawrinka/Berlocq Over 20.5 -120 1x
Could be dead wrong here, but Wawrinka has been a little off lately and hasn’t had much match play. Berlocq is not a fast court player but he did score a win over Istomin and should come with some confidence to at least win more than 8 games here.
Sam Querrey vs. Fernado Verdasco
I will be doing my awards predictions soon and Sam Querrey is certainly a contender for Comeback player of the year. This is a guy who was a top 20 player got hurt and had to build his ranking back up at the challenger level. He has since done that and currently sits at 23 in the world set to play Verdasco in this opening round clash. These guys just played in Beijing a couple of weeks ago with Querrey winning a tight 3 setter. Querrey has played against the Spaniard and even beat him last year when Querrey’s wasn’t at his best. This line sits at -165 and my first read was take the American. Sam 25-15 at tour level hard court events and has made the quarters 2 of the last 3 tournaments he has played in. Verdasco has had 1 quality win since he pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season when took out Nadal on clay at Madrid. He was won matches against lower ranked players, but when he plays a quality opponent he has struggled. I will try Sam at a small price of -165, as Verdasco has had a disappointing season. It is hard to believe he is just 11-9 on hard courts in 2012.
Play: Sam Querrey -165 1x
Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs. Julien Benneteau
There are certain players on the ATP tour that you don’t want to see when you look at your draw. For JWT it is Benneteau. While his H2H against his compatriot is 4-4, Benny has always competed in their 8 clashes. He just seems to feel comfortable out there against Tsonga. These guys haven’t played since 2010 but I am sure the game of Tsonga is fresh in Benneteau’s mind, he knows how to attack him and put him on the defensive. Tsonga should have won the Stockholm title but choked away a set and break lead against Tomas Berdych, he followed that up with a retirement after just 4 games against Xavier Malisse. Tsonga is competed for a World Tour Finals spot and desperately needs a win here but I don’t think it is going to be easy. Benneteau because he has been to inconsistent indoors this season for me. 1 week he is destroying a top 5 player in David Ferrer, the next week he is winning 1 game in a match against Seppi. I do think because of the familiarity he will compete in this match therefore I am playing the over and Benny + the games. If you want to get bold and take the ML I respect but I think because Tsonga needs to find a way to eke out a victory he will do it but he won’t cover.
Play: Over 22.5 -135, Benneteau +3.5 -120 1x
Radek Stepanek vs. Michael Llodra
I don’t know if there is something in the water in France but Llodra is another guy that you just never know what you are going to get from him. If he is serving and volleying well he give even the top guys trouble. I the flipside I have seen him lose on the challenger tour to a nobody. This matchup with Stepanek has been one that has always given him problem. Step holds a 6-1 H2H record and he just beat him in the qualifying for the Basel event. It was a close match and I think Llodra learned a lot from it and take since 2008 Llodra has played well in all 4 matches, including winning his lone encounter vs. the Czech. I am playing Llodra for a couple of reasons: 1. it is difficult to beat someone twice in a 2 week span, it just is, especially when you are talking veterans at this level. 2. Llodra has been really good on indoor surfaces this year and historically throughout his career. 3. The matches Llodra has lost recent have been in deciding tiebreaks which means he is serving well, if he is serving well he is very dangerous. 4. Not the biggest factor but something to consider, he is playing in France, this isn’t the NFL but home country does matter a little bit.
Play: Michael Llodra +150 1x
Jerzy Janowicz vs. Marin Cilic
1st meeting between these two and this one smells like it will fly over. Both guys have been in form this season and the total isn’t that high because Jerzy is not a house hold name. Many people will expect Cilic to roll over the Pole and that will not be the case. Janowicz qualified here and then soundly defeated Kohlschreiber in the opening round. He also made the quarters in two previous indoor events so he playing his best tennis of the year late. Cilic crashed out early to countrymen Ivan Dodig last week in Valencia, in a match in which he was broken numerous times. Janowicz has a above serve and I see this one going to at least 1 tiebreak if not Jerzy being lucky enough to grab a set. Since you can never tell which side of the Croat will show up it is a safer play to take the over.
Play: Over 22.5 -125 1x
Quick Hitters
Bautista-Agut +195 1x
What year is it? Mathieu a -235 favorite is asinine. His run in Basel was a mirage and before that event he was a 3 match losing streak. Bautista-Agut has quietly racked up a 15-3 record indoors on the challenger tour. Worth at shot at +195.
Dolgopolov -3 (-120) 1x
This is an interesting match, Sijsling is the running for challenger player of the year amassing a 40-14 record but just 7-9 on tour events. The Dog nearly won a stacked Valencia tournament last week and is really one of the most talented players on the ATP tour. This is a bold play because of Sijsling’s ability to hold his own serve but I think Dolgo will get enough chances to at worst make this a push. I see a 6-4, 6-4 routine win.
Chardy/Garcia-Lopez-Under 22.5 -110 1x
This is the type of match where the loser of the first set will lose the match. Two headcases struggling to win. The loser of the first set will be thinking "Here we go again" and calmly get dismissed in 2.
Paire +210 1x
Take out a loss to Lorenzi in Austria and Paire has been impressive during the indoor swing. Nishikori hasn’t played a match in 3 weeks so he is bound to have a little rust. I wish my book had first set odds because I am very positive Paire wins the opener. I will hope he can parlay it into a match win.
Berdych -5 (-145) 1x
Seppi is a great story, but Berdych has owned the Italian in 2 previous meetings in this year. Berdych is fresh off his Stockholm title, no reason to expect his form to change here.
Wawrinka/Berlocq Over 20.5 -120 1x
Could be dead wrong here, but Wawrinka has been a little off lately and hasn’t had much match play. Berlocq is not a fast court player but he did score a win over Istomin and should come with some confidence to at least win more than 8 games here.
