DoubleRedDragon Tennis Plays

drfunkmaster · 10-24-12, 08:08 PM

good luck.. roll overs are how the books get you..gotta grind it out slowly

Demonata · 10-24-12, 10:46 PM

Good luck man. Who do you like in tennis tomorrow?

Vinnie Paz · 10-24-12, 10:53 PM

Got nudies of girl #2???
Pm em

DoubleRedDragon · 10-25-12, 08:14 AM

I'm liking Serena -165 against the #1 but.... i gotta look into it more.

DoubleRedDragon · 10-25-12, 08:21 AM

I'm thinking of doing some sort of play like Serena Williams moneyline and Azarenka +3.5 at the same time. Both could win and could take away some risk.

matt05man · 10-25-12, 08:23 AM

Sounds like your betting for the sake of betting.

DoubleRedDragon · 10-25-12, 08:25 AM

My reasoning is that I'm just not sure I see Serena breaking Azarenka like she was broken yesterday so many times. I could be wrong though....

I think the line is off... Serena SHOULD be #1 but she was out for a while, no? I think she should be -300 but that's just me :P

If Azarenka takes a set I think Serena still wins most likely. and maybe it goes to a tiebreak? it's a tough call, maybe I should just stick to the money line but hedging SOME out on +3.5 might not hurt... still deciding...

DoubleRedDragon · 10-25-12, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by matt05man

Sounds like your betting for the sake of betting.

At what point did you think I was doing this? When I had to do the rollover bonus I was, now I'm just seeking out value and trying to build a bankroll. Hate that I couldn't cash out until I finished $4,000 of betting.

DoubleRedDragon · 10-25-12, 08:28 AM

I don't really understand why you say that. Serena is like 9-1 against Azarenka, I see a ton of value in -165. I don't think Azarenka as the world #1 goes down without a fight so I see her +3.5 hitting too.

DoubleRedDragon · 10-25-12, 08:28 AM

I'm also trying to avoid taking juice so -165 is a lot to pay. Looking for a way to hopefully hedge off some risk.

vladfan · 10-25-12, 08:29 AM

Azarenka is very good on the hard court but serena is 10-1 lifetime against her. She should definetely be around -300.

DoubleRedDragon · 10-25-12, 08:30 AM

I still haven't deposited, I might go and try to build a bankroll at the cardroom first... I have won a few tournaments there in the past few weeks for $900, $1,870... just keep blowing it betting sports. So this time around I'm betting because I enjoy betting and also I believe if I don't parlay I can find value and virtual locks and make some real money instead of chasing parlays.

DoubleRedDragon · 10-25-12, 08:33 AM

Originally posted by vladfan

Azarenka is very good on the hard court but serena is 10-1 lifetime against her. She should definetely be around -300.

Thanks for this, confirms what I saw in this line from the info I can obtain from head-to-head.

Serena beats her convincingly most of the time... there's one win that azarenka takes, and there's two out of 5 serena wins that go to 3 sets on hard courts... just trying to decide whether to take +3.5.....

I'm actually sort of tempted to take -3.5 :P

DoubleRedDragon · 10-25-12, 08:34 AM

Originally posted by matt05man

Sounds like your betting for the sake of betting.

Also it's you're not your.... thanks for stopping by.....

DoubleRedDragon · 10-25-12, 08:40 AM

6-2 2-6 7-5
US Open with a Serena win

this was their last match on hard court, was in 2012.

6-1 7-6(5)
Serena wins this. coudl have lost the tie break, 2011

6-3 6-3
2011 hard court

4-6 7-6(4) 6-2
Australian Open, Serena wins after dropping first set

There seems to be a lot of 2nd set tie breaks...
Maybe Serena Money line, Azarenka +3.5 and Over, wonder if I could bet all of these and still be profitable a lot of the time? still thinking...

DoubleRedDragon · 10-25-12, 08:43 AM

Upon further review maybe the best would be Serena moneyline and also take the Over 21.5

Lakers Dynasty · 10-25-12, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by DoubleRedDragon

Upon further review maybe the best would be Serena moneyline and also take the Over 21.5

I like the over as well

DoubleRedDragon · 10-25-12, 09:09 AM

Thanks... it is looking like the motivation factor for this win against azarenka might not be there because of how this tournament is structured... Serena doesn't even need beat Azarenka to get to the next round..... weird so i might pass...? tough spot.

DoubleRedDragon · 10-25-12, 09:15 AM

They just changed +3.5 to +2.5 for Azarenka... ugh I want to play this match but the motivation angle is killing me....

Demonata · 10-25-12, 09:21 AM

Even an unmotivated Serena should still win.