Chasing Steam and Limiting Books - Justin7

[cyberinvestor]

Asking Justin7 as he seems to have a lot of experience both first and second hand with professional wagering and why books limit due to steam players. The problem I have had is that I have found two definitions for chasing steam. I am curious which is the "real" meaning of chasing steam that when followed you will more than likely get limited by everyone except perhaps Pinnacle (and the exchanges of course).

Chasing Steam #1: This is what I always believed to be chasing steam and that is let's say it's an NBA game between Denver and New York with the line currently at all books as the Knicks -5. If I am watching my Don Best screen and see the line at Pinnacle go to the Knicks -6 but still -5 everyone else. At this moment I log in to my 5Dimes or whatever account and bet Knicks -5 before they change the line then I am chasing the steam. 5Dimes won't like it because I just beat them to the line move and now they have to raise their line to 6 however they cannot offset my action with a Denver +5 bet. Our friend Tony isn't going to like me very much. This example is what I always believed to be the definition of chasing steam.

Chasing Steam #2: I am starting to see people now say the following is chasing steam but I don't agree. They say is the same game from above moves from Knicks -5 to Knicks -6 at Pinnacle. In this example however the game goes up to -6 at all books. I follow my Don Best screen and say "Geez, Knicks up a point, I am going to take it because it obviously was a big move". I now bet the Knicks -6 at 5Dimes. In theory I am "chasing the steam" because the sharps are moving on the Knicks (let's say public is on Nuggets) however the line I am getting is the line after the sharps hit it (bad line). By definition I am "following" or "chasing" the move but I am getting the worst line.

I am curious as to Justin7's take and which of these two scenarios will get you limited and which won't. My previous knowledge says #1 gets you limited and #2 every book wants you because you are betting the garbage line. However now I am seeing people say BOTH would get you limited equally. I am also curious as to what other people feel is correctly the picture of "chasing steam". I realize there are other factors so please don't tell me I left things out of what makes a steam move. I am just looking for answers and thoughts and not going to write a thesis on Steam Moves and Chasing Steam. Just trying to layout overview scenarios.

Thanks for taking the time to read and discuss!

[tep]

Well I am not Justin. If the only bets you are playing is chasing steam you will get banned no mater if you beat the move or follow the move. Both is chasing steam you just happen to beat the move in the first scenario. Books don't seem to like it too much when that is all you are betting.

[BranchDavidian]

I would like to bring up a second question, as long as you ask about steam plays. I have played at BetPhoenix, and am considering making another deposit. But, when I read their terms, I find it disturbing to see the one that states that any player "caught" playing steam moves can have their winnings confiscated. This allows the book to steal. If you make a bet, and an hour later the line moves -- the book can say you bet steam and confiscate any winnings you may have built up. Any bet you make can be called steam, since lines are constantly moving. The term steam move is a subjective term where the book decides what is steam. Any player can make a bet, and if the line happens to move afterwards, watch out! I cannot get myself to make another deposit as long as the book has this rule, allowing them to steal your funds any time they choose. If they put a line up and someone places a bet, how in the world can they justify confiscating your funds. You have only bet what they offered.

[Inkwell77]

Good post. Probably ways to get around it, but need many many outs and have to keep a very low profile.
Do books know if guys are betting $10 a game on steam?
Do they care about potentially paying out a player lets say $200 (20 units) from just playing steam plays?
And I'm talking about steam plays where the line has already moved and you, as a player, are getting the worse number.

[Hareeba!]

Asking Justin7 as he seems to have a lot of experience both first and second hand with professional wagering and why books limit due to steam players. The problem I have had is that I have found two definitions for chasing steam. I am curious which is the "real" meaning of chasing steam that when followed you will more than likely get limited by everyone except perhaps Pinnacle (and the exchanges of course).

Chasing Steam #1: This is what I always believed to be chasing steam and that is let's say it's an NBA game between Denver and New York with the line currently at all books as the Knicks -5. If I am watching my Don Best screen and see the line at Pinnacle go to the Knicks -6 but still -5 everyone else. At this moment I log in to my 5Dimes or whatever account and bet Knicks -5 before they change the line then I am chasing the steam. 5Dimes won't like it because I just beat them to the line move and now they have to raise their line to 6 however they cannot offset my action with a Denver +5 bet. Our friend Tony isn't going to like me very much. This example is what I always believed to be the definition of chasing steam.

Chasing Steam #2: I am starting to see people now say the following is chasing steam but I don't agree. They say is the same game from above moves from Knicks -5 to Knicks -6 at Pinnacle. In this example however the game goes up to -6 at all books. I follow my Don Best screen and say "Geez, Knicks up a point, I am going to take it because it obviously was a big move". I now bet the Knicks -6 at 5Dimes. In theory I am "chasing the steam" because the sharps are moving on the Knicks (let's say public is on Nuggets) however the line I am getting is the line after the sharps hit it (bad line). By definition I am "following" or "chasing" the move but I am getting the worst line.

I am curious as to Justin7's take and which of these two scenarios will get you limited and which won't. My previous knowledge says #1 gets you limited and #2 every book wants you because you are betting the garbage line. However now I am seeing people say BOTH would get you limited equally. I am also curious as to what other people feel is correctly the picture of "chasing steam". I realize there are other factors so please don't tell me I left things out of what makes a steam move. I am just looking for answers and thoughts and not going to write a thesis on Steam Moves and Chasing Steam. Just trying to layout overview scenarios.

Thanks for taking the time to read and discuss!

Agree with your definitions. #1 = steam play, #2 not
Books which openly take a stance against "steam play" should define it clearly.

[BrianLaverty]

#1 is a steam play.... #2 is not. The whole reason why books don't like it is because you are beating the line move.... I'm sure most books would love people who just simply do #2 as you are getting the worst of it.

[durito]

no book will care at all about betting the line after the move

[BeardedTaco]

here's the question I brought up in another thread on the subject:

yeah I keep hearing about how even semi pro books like betcris and the greek will limit players that "chase steam" and win. I can understand them cutting you off if say you follow RAS and take em for a good chunk of cash.

But just the other day I was looking to play Denver Nuggets -12 and find that it moved to -12.5 just about everywhere an hour before. I see the Greek still has it at -12. When I place my bet there am I technically "chasing steam" and building myself a bad rep at the book?!? What's more "pro" then a "pro" line shopping at a bunch of "pro" books?

Another example was yesterday when fullerton moved down to +12 everywhere really early in the day while the greek kept it at +12.5 until game time. If I make a bet there and win at a 54% clip making those bets am I going to get limited? If so only for CBB?

[JohnGalt2341]

A couple of years ago a book accused me of chasing steam although I think they called it something else. The thing is... I didn't even know that I was doing it. I no longer play at that book but what I am wondering is... how likely is it to get limited by a book for "chasing steam" even if you are completely unaware that you are doing it?

[lt56]

Books never cared or talked about "chasing steam" when Vegas's top line makers were clear headed and great at setting lines. The Vegas oddsmakers are nothing like they used to be so the players collect and win quite often. For example, it took Vegas about 11 weeks to realize the Colts actually sucked. It took most players about 3 weeks to see the Colts sucked so the players they called "sharp" buried the Vegas line makers by going opposite the Colts throughout October and November. Are the players "sharp" or are the line makers morons at times? 10 years ago Vegas laughed at players who bet before a line moved. They didn't care 10 years ago because the top line maker(Roxy Roxborough--Las Vegas Sports Consultants in Vegas) always produced winning weeks for them. Ever since he retired Vegas hasn't been as good. They still win but not like they used to so they now have to find excuses to cut off players and not pay them. Chasing steam is just an excuse to screw the player.

[Hareeba!]

A couple of years ago a book accused me of chasing steam although I think they called it something else. The thing is... I didn't even know that I was doing it. I no longer play at that book but what I am wondering is... how likely is it to get limited by a book for "chasing steam" even if you are completely unaware that you are doing it?

Very likely indeed.

Years ago I was limited to waste-of-time levels at just about all the Euro books when following a service which had gained a good reputation. Trouble was that those of us following the service created the "steam". Until then I'd never even heard the term.

[durito]

Books never cared or talked about "chasing steam" when Vegas's top line makers were clear headed and great at setting lines. The Vegas oddsmakers are nothing like they used to be so the players collect and win quite often. For example, it took Vegas about 11 weeks to realize the Colts actually sucked. It took most players about 3 weeks to see the Colts sucked so the players they called "sharp" buried the Vegas line makers by going opposite the Colts throughout October and November. Are the players "sharp" or are the line makers morons at times? 10 years ago Vegas laughed at players who bet before a line moved. They didn't care 10 years ago because the top line maker(Roxy Roxborough--Las Vegas Sports Consultants in Vegas) always produced winning weeks for them. Ever since he retired Vegas hasn't been as good. They still win but not like they used to so they now have to find excuses to cut off players and not pay them. Chasing steam is just an excuse to screw the player.

lol

[cyberinvestor]

Great replies and thoughts guys. I appreciate the discussion and seeing what others were thinking.

[FourLengthsClear]

Books never cared or talked about "chasing steam" when Vegas's top line makers were clear headed and great at setting lines. The Vegas oddsmakers are nothing like they used to be so the players collect and win quite often. For example, it took Vegas about 11 weeks to realize the Colts actually sucked. It took most players about 3 weeks to see the Colts sucked so the players they called "sharp" buried the Vegas line makers by going opposite the Colts throughout October and November. Are the players "sharp" or are the line makers morons at times? 10 years ago Vegas laughed at players who bet before a line moved. They didn't care 10 years ago because the top line maker(Roxy Roxborough--Las Vegas Sports Consultants in Vegas) always produced winning weeks for them. Ever since he retired Vegas hasn't been as good. They still win but not like they used to so they now have to find excuses to cut off players and not pay them. Chasing steam is just an excuse to screw the player.

Cool story.

The only problem with the premise is that, statistically, NFL opening lines are more accurate now than they were 10 years ago. If LVSC lines are more beatable these days it just might be that players are using more sophisticated methods to gain an edge.

[Justin7]

Chasing Steam #1: This is what I always believed to be chasing steam and that is let's say it's an NBA game between Denver and New York with the line currently at all books as the Knicks -5. If I am watching my Don Best screen and see the line at Pinnacle go to the Knicks -6 but still -5 everyone else. At this moment I log in to my 5Dimes or whatever account and bet Knicks -5 before they change the line then I am chasing the steam. 5Dimes won't like it because I just beat them to the line move and now they have to raise their line to 6 however they cannot offset my action with a Denver +5 bet. Our friend Tony isn't going to like me very much. This example is what I always believed to be the definition of chasing steam.

Chasing Steam #2: I am starting to see people now say the following is chasing steam but I don't agree. They say is the same game from above moves from Knicks -5 to Knicks -6 at Pinnacle. In this example however the game goes up to -6 at all books. I follow my Don Best screen and say "Geez, Knicks up a point, I am going to take it because it obviously was a big move". I now bet the Knicks -6 at 5Dimes. In theory I am "chasing the steam" because the sharps are moving on the Knicks (let's say public is on Nuggets) however the line I am getting is the line after the sharps hit it (bad line). By definition I am "following" or "chasing" the move but I am getting the worst line.

I am curious as to Justin7's take and which of these two scenarios will get you limited and which won't. My previous knowledge says #1 gets you limited and #2 every book wants you because you are betting the garbage line. However now I am seeing people say BOTH would get you limited equally. I am also curious as to what other people feel is correctly the picture of "chasing steam". I realize there are other factors so please don't tell me I left things out of what makes a steam move. I am just looking for answers and thoughts and not going to write a thesis on Steam Moves and Chasing Steam. Just trying to layout overview scenarios.

Thanks for taking the time to read and discuss!

Both are chasing steam. Books don't like your example in #1; in that case you beat them to the move. Most books don't care if you bet steam after the line moves. With some exceptions, this is a losing strategy.

[BeardedTaco]

Am I wrong in thinking that the only way a non-US player can get away with winning six figures on a semi-pro book (say betcris) is by somehow deciding not to play on pinny or exchanges but instead placing his wagers at -110 VIG on sharp + accurate lines (according to the market at the time) and help the book balance their action (preferably in big markets like the NFL)?

There has been so many situations lately where the line I want to bet is -11.5 -104 at pinny but -11 -110 at so called "pro" book and I'm saddened to hear that I won't be able to keep betting the -11 in the long term.

[lt56]

Cool story.

The only problem with the premise is that, statistically, NFL opening lines are more accurate now than they were 10 years ago. If LVSC lines are more beatable these days it just might be that players are using more sophisticated methods to gain an edge.

I think the Vegas lines are easier than ever to hit the past few years and that's why books are limiting more and more players and trying to screw players out of money for excuses like "chasing steam". That expression didn't exist until Roxborough retired.

[lt56]

Am I wrong in thinking that the only way a non-US player can get away with winning six figures on a semi-pro book (say betcris) is by somehow deciding not to play on pinny or exchanges but instead placing his wagers at -110 VIG on sharp + accurate lines (according to the market at the time) and help the book balance their action (preferably in big markets like the NFL)?

There has been so many situations lately where the line I want to bet is -11.5 -104 at pinny but -11 -110 at so called "pro" book and I'm saddened to hear that I won't be able to keep betting the -11 in the long term.

If you're trying to win 6 figures, maybe just go to Vegas.

[BeardedTaco]

Vegas is for parties not work!!

[benandjerry]

Am I wrong in thinking that the only way a non-US player can get away with winning six figures on a semi-pro book (say betcris) is by somehow deciding not to play on pinny or exchanges but instead placing his wagers at -110 VIG on sharp + accurate lines (according to the market at the time) and help the book balance their action (preferably in big markets like the NFL)?

There has been so many situations lately where the line I want to bet is -11.5 -104 at pinny but -11 -110 at so called "pro" book and I'm saddened to hear that I won't be able to keep betting the -11 in the long term.

I'm not sure exactly what you're asking, but pinny is as "pro book" as they come so I'm not sure why you would opt out from playing there. As many said above, if you keep beating books to line moves, the majority will take actions against you (and this majority largely consists of euro/aussie/some US market offshore books), but the most serious books will make the line adjustments so quickly you're unlikely to have to worry about it unless you're really going in for it or what you do is arbing/trading.

I'm not familiar with betcris, but as a non US player you have a fair ammount of options. In the example you listed pinny usually offers a few different AH lines for most events so you may be able to get the -11 there still, though maybe at worse odds (depending on what kind of event...).

[BeardedTaco]

I'm saying that the best way to bet online for a serious non-US better is to place 95% of your action on pinny, exchanges and asian bookies (188bet, sbobet etc.).

Ideally the other 5% would consist of betting into stale lines at the greek, betcris and other semi-pro books but from what I am hearing winning a lot of money that way will get you cut off. I just wanted to know if my thought process on the subject was spot on or way off.



(yes I know pinny offers different AHs, but as you know getting the best number at the lowest price is key)

[Hareeba!]

I'm saying that the best way to bet online for a serious non-US better is to place 95% of your action on pinny, exchanges and asian bookies (188bet, sbobet etc.).

Ideally the other 5% would consist of betting into stale lines at the greek, betcris and other semi-pro books but from what I am hearing winning a lot of money that way will get you cut off. I just wanted to know if my thought process on the subject was spot on or way off.



(yes I know pinny offers different AHs, but as you know getting the best number at the lowest price is key)

I concur. Those you mentioned are far and away my prime books since being effectively booted from all the Euros and the Aussie corporates. Add Tabcorp also though for Aussies.

[QQPALLADIUM]

Very likely indeed.

Years ago I was limited to waste-of-time levels at just about all the Euro books when following a service which had gained a good reputation. Trouble was that those of us following the service created the "steam". Until then I'd never even heard the term.

well at least we know your "system"...why buy a stock at 22 when you could have bought it at 21...oh yeah...you want to chase "steam" at 22...sheep....

[Hareeba!]

well at least we know your "system"...why buy a stock at 22 when you could have bought it at 21...oh yeah...you want to chase "steam" at 22...sheep....

still stalking me to post garbage and insults I see

[RonPaul2008]

#2 is not steam betting, #1 is steam betting.

#2 will not get you limited.

[cyberinvestor]

Great thoughts and discussion. Thanks for taking the time to post!

[BeardedTaco]

#2 is not steam betting, #1 is steam betting.

#2 will not get you limited.

#2 you won't win as much

[davidchong]

Then use static lines and money the juice.

-5 to -6 no!.
-5 to -5 -140 !!

[princecharles]

How can #2 possibly be considered as 'nefarious' as #1?

When you bet a number that has just arrived, that is a GIFT to the book.
Betting a number that the book is late in changing is a 'gift' for the bettor.

[NobodyUKnow]

Scenario #1 is chasing steam
Scenario #2 is chasing farts