The echo effect

[Justin7]

If you want to manipulate, especially smaller markets, focus on Pinny, Olympic and Cris. Despite Pinny's departure from the US, they are still copied by most offshores.

Today I put 1k on Arizona +14 +105 at Pinny. The moved to +13 -105. Within 10 seconds, 5Dimes and Betonline moved off the 14. 2 minutes later, Oly moved off.

So who cares? Anyone betting Arena. If you see a game lined on a 7 and are playing at least 5k a side, you can "bump" the line either way, and get more equity than just straight buying of a discounted half-point.

[curious]

If you want to manipulate, especially smaller markets, focus on Pinny, Olympic and Cris. Despite Pinny's departure from the US, they are still copied by most offshores.

Today I put 1k on Arizona +14 +105 at Pinny. The moved to +13 -105. Within 10 seconds, 5Dimes and Betonline moved off the 14. 2 minutes later, Oly moved off.

So who cares? Anyone betting Arena. If you see a game lined on a 7 and are playing at least 5k a side, you can "bump" the line either way, and get more equity than just straight buying of a discounted half-point.

Your example doesn't make any sense. How does the book making the line less favorable after you make your bet help you? Unless you are going to then bet 2K on the opposing team at -13, which doesn't really make sense to me.

[Justin7]

Your example doesn't make any sense. How does the book making the line less favorable after you make your bet help you? Unless you are going to then bet 2K on the opposing team at -13, which doesn't really make sense to me.

Assume the market is Chicago -7. I want to bet 20k on Chicago. I can buy the hook, risking 24k to win 20k at -6.5.

Or, I can throw a head-fake. Bet 4k at the big books, and the line moves everywhere. I take back 24k at -6.5 -110. By betting 4k both ways, I lose 400 in juice, or rather paid 400 for the hook instead of 2000.

[durito]

20k's a little steep for me on arena at this point,

But, it certainly shows how easy it is to manipulate these markets.

[Frank]

Your example doesn't make any sense. How does the book making the line less favorable after you make your bet help you? Unless you are going to then bet 2K on the opposing team at -13, which doesn't really make sense to me.

-13 -105 and +14 +105 makes a lot of sense to some people

[bigboydan]

-13 -105 and +14 +105 makes a lot of sense to some people

Indeed it does Mr.Frank.

[katstale]

I can tell you for a fact that since the American market dried up for these books--it only takes a couple grand to move the line. Given that, i am sure you are correct that you could successfuly move an arena line a point or two with somewhat small wagers and then jump on the other side with a good sized bet.

[20Four7]

I"ve also seen the greek put out a "bad line" on 2nd half NBA then correct it quickly leading the copy cat books hanging out the "bad greek Line". I hope arizona was your "real" bet as they won the game outright.

[Justin7]

20Four7,

I liked Arizona a little in the game. They were trying a new QB, and I made the line Chicago -11. +14 -110 would be a small play, but Pinny hung +14 +105. It was scalpable, and I liked the side... so I took "half a scalp" (playing the sharp side of a scalpable game, and passing on the "wrong side" of the scalp).

[austintx05]

thanks for the read, we need more topics like this.

[20Four7]

20Four7,

I liked Arizona a little in the game. They were trying a new QB, and I made the line Chicago -11. +14 -110 would be a small play, but Pinny hung +14 +105. It was scalpable, and I liked the side... so I took "half a scalp" (playing the sharp side of a scalpable game, and passing on the "wrong side" of the scalp).

Thanks for sharing what you did Justin, I do follow AFL but certainly am NOT as good a capper as you in it. I understood what you were getting at in your thread, but just curious as to who you did like.