what would you do if you beat a Pinny closer by 25 cents

Bluehorseshoe · 08-30-10, 06:34 PM

I'd kill my GF.

(I've been looking for a reason.)

durito · 08-30-10, 06:52 PM

What would I do about what? It happens a lot on smaller markets and soccer.

Jaug · 08-30-10, 06:59 PM

Depends on size of bet, if it is a huge one I might scalp otherwise just let it ride.

jayc88 · 08-30-10, 07:00 PM

one thing i def wouldnt do is scalping

-105 · 08-30-10, 07:06 PM

i would bet everything i could steal

statnerds · 08-30-10, 07:10 PM

sorry. Durito is correct, i failed to properly identify the market

it was MLB

it was yesterday

RudyRuetigger · 08-30-10, 07:20 PM

jump off a fukkin cliff!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-105 · 08-30-10, 11:31 PM

write a book

B1GER1C828 · 08-30-10, 11:33 PM

be pretty happy.

OmgUrMom · 08-30-10, 11:38 PM

id be so pissed.

DeluxeLiner · 08-31-10, 05:26 AM

let it ride, and congrats to you for making a wildly +ev bet.

MonkeyF0cker · 08-31-10, 06:28 AM

First off, I wouldn't start a thread like this.

sharpcat · 08-31-10, 06:41 AM

It really depends what the line is and whether it is the no-vig line or not.

If the pinny line was -1025 and I got -1000 I would likely be paying juice, .25 cents is not worth very much on higher numbers.

If I beat +100 no-vig line by .25 cents I would be patiently waiting for the game to end so I can find out if the book is going to cancel my winning bet or take my money on a losing bet.

Mudcat · 08-31-10, 07:22 AM

My reaction would depend on a bunch of things. A lot of people have the idea that beating the Pinny closer automatically means something great has happened. My research shows that is clearly not the case. Depending on the market and what the opener was and the juice, you could still be in a very big -ev position.

I could easily envision situations where I would have an opportunity to beat the pinny closer by 25 cents and I would pass.

RollPlayer · 08-31-10, 07:59 AM

I would probably be tempted to scalp it, but end up letting it ride because it isn't often you get that good of a chance to make some money

durito · 08-31-10, 07:59 AM

Originally posted by Mudcat

I could easily envision situations where I would have an opportunity to beat the pinny closer by 25 cents and I would pass.

Ok, but send me those bets.

Bluehorseshoe · 08-31-10, 08:07 AM

Originally posted by durito

Ok, but send me those bets.

You'd be surprise. I have a slow moving local and with MLS, it has not been profitable.

durito · 08-31-10, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by Bluehorseshoe

You'd be surprise. I have a slow moving local and with MLS, it has not been profitable.

Sample size?

I broke even over 2M worth of bets earlier this year that should've returned 3-4%. This month I can't lose over a much smaller # of bets.

Nicky Santoro · 08-31-10, 09:02 AM

it means absolutely nothing over 2 games. even if it's 49 cents.. it's ONLY 2 games.

however, if you can get 25 cents over the next 25,000 games and you're a high roller.. i would stop playing at pinny and take all my money out of there fast because you will put them out of business.

but then again, pinny wouldn't allow you to last more than 20 more games if you were doing this on a regular basis. you'd get the boot..

Iceman · 08-31-10, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by durito

Sample size?

I broke even over 2M worth of bets earlier this year that should've returned 3-4%. This month I can't lose over a much smaller # of bets.

broke even over how many total bets would you estimate?

My records show the most bets in sequence I have broke even in is around 2,000. When you talk 5,000 bets, I have always shown a proift and my entire focus is beating the closing line.

As for the question: Like Nicky said 2 bets means absoultely nothing. Depending on some factors you probably raised your win pct z bit on those 2 plays but nothing that couldn't lose short term.

Nicky Santoro · 08-31-10, 09:20 AM

Originally posted by durito

I broke even over 2M worth of bets earlier this year that should've returned 3-4%. This month I can't lose over a much smaller # of bets.

i swear in 2006, i lost 49 of 52 weeks and i played incredible edges those days with some mediocre books and 3 locals.. my avg was 3% ROI on every game and i'd bet 37 games a day each day in 2006.. and i took the beating of my life. 35% of my whole bankroll was gone and i thought i was about to go broke..

every day i was losing losing losing.. i had 2 winning days in a row, maybe 4x all year.. i coudln't take the losing anymore.. and like i said, i had the edge on 97% of every game i bet.. i was doing well over 2M a month, not a year.. and i was still losing big..

sometimes you just can't win, even with edges.. but at least thank GOD it turned later on.. i am still not even sure if i recuperated all my losses yet of 2006. i had many sleepless nights..

edges only will win over yrs and yrs and yrs of gambling.. that's when you should be up.. if not, then you are doing something wrong.

Fishhead · 08-31-10, 09:27 AM

If I beat the Pinny closers everyday by 25 cents, I would have one losing day approximently every 122.3 days(think my math is right on this).

Nicky Santoro · 08-31-10, 09:34 AM

if i beat pinny closers by 25 cents each day, i'd make EXACTLY 7.3million /yr..

lets say i bet an avg of 25 games a day each day 365 days a year. i'd bet 5k a game.. then i'd have enough funds at matchy to play other side for 5k.. i'd make 20,000$/day just scalping those 25 games each day...

20,000 x 365= 7.3 million a year.

i would clear 7.3 million a year gambling with NO RISK.

for 7.3 mill, i prefer to scalp than to bet those straight up, even though it would be smarter to bet em.. but at 7.3 mill, i will prefer to guarantee myself 7.3 mill.. why be greedy, right???

Fishhead · 08-31-10, 09:38 AM

ICE and myself, along with BobbyFK and WAS discussed this heavily at the bash............so much can be discussed on this topic but anyone realizing they are beating the closers by 25 cents are going to be profitable and successful in the longrun, no matter how they attack it(if they don't lose their bankroll).

Fishhead · 08-31-10, 09:39 AM

25 games, 25 cents, 365 days a year.................lol, that would be sweek Nicky.

We could call it the 25-25-365 system

-105 · 08-31-10, 09:57 AM

Originally posted by Fishhead

25 games, 25 cents, 365 days a year.................lol, that would be sweek Nicky.

We could call it the 25-25-365 system

After the 25-25-365 system gets you cut from everybook , it's time to have a 1-900-TOP-TOUT

$14.99/min?

wantitall4moi · 08-31-10, 10:06 AM

People give Pinny way too much credit. I can still bet there if I want to through a porxy, and I have a few times this year in baseball, and even a modest bet (compared to the days it was running full tilt) can move a number 12-13 cents. A big bet I have no doubt would move it closer to 20. They have software now that moves them automatically especially their openers. But that was installed a while ago after I and a couple other guys used to crush them on their overnight lines in baseball.

So if you think a few guys like me taking a shot or making a bet and moving the line 10-12 cents each is something to be proud of then feel free to keep holding onto the Fantasy that pinnacle still matters in American sports.

trust me they dont miss Americans in the least. They did and continue to make their money off soccer, horses, and probably even tennis at this point. But soccer alone makes them the biggest book internationally right now. The money bet on the NFL isnt even a drop in the bucket compared to what is bet on soccer. That is just a common fac that anyone betting should know.

Ruifgalmeida · 08-31-10, 10:30 AM

if you beat pinny 25cents every day, they will give you a Job

statnerds · 08-31-10, 10:34 AM

gotta dog i liked on Sunday at +151. Pinny closed at +126.

i've only seen it happened twice since i finally starting tracking all of this bullshit, and they are 2-0.

that is why i asked the question. i was expecting the general consensus to be it represented a +EV wager. was hoping, but not expecting, someone with a sample size larger than 2 games to use their Super Secret Invisible Ink Pen from Capt'n Crunch to reply so I could use my Scooby Doo Decoder ring to get the information.

my first instinct when i saw it was to throw more on the dog, say double my bet. this would still leave me with a number far superior to the closer, (+138...fill in blanks on your own please). never thought to scalp it. i did nothing as i did not have the long term winning/losing % of lines that beat the Pinny closer by such an abnormal margin. if i knew the long term rate was say 60% or higher in such a situation, more money would have been added to my dog play.

as Nicky (sharp as always) said takes years, not 2 games.

Nicky Santoro · 08-31-10, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by Ruifgalmeida

if you beat pinny 25cents every day, they will give you a Job

if you beat pinny 25 cents each day, you wouldn't need a job there.. why make 200k/yr salary there when you can probably make 15 million a year easily if you can beat the # by 25 cents on each game..

you can bet yourself, scalp yourself, give out plays to all your friends.. and you make 50% of all their profits. you can hire 35 new beards.. you would destroy every book offshore and they'd all have to close eventually and there'd be no more offshore.. you'd wipe out the whole gambling industry if you can do this..

but the big problem would probably end up being that you, me and every guy you ever hired as a beard would eventually get the boot after their 7th bet.. so maybe all this would be useless.. you might end up making peanuts.

you know what?? maybe i'd take the job at pinny, but for no less than 900k/yr.. and i am sure they'd give it to you too if you can get 25 cents on every game. and on the side, i'd scalp 5-8 cents a game to not make it look too obvious. this way, i don't get the boot and can easily make another 700k a year just scalping, NO RISK.. so 900k salary, PLUS 700k/yr scalping =1.6 million a year. NOT BAD..

Dr.Gonzo · 08-31-10, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by statnerds

and another by 23 cents?

hypothetical of course.

Dance a hypothetical Irish jig

Iceman · 08-31-10, 11:18 AM

Bet small, bet for life.

A fellow poster has this motto at another forum. I think it's the perfect sports betting motto.

RudyRuetigger · 08-31-10, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by statnerds

my first instinct when i saw it was to throw more on the dog, say double my bet. this would still leave me with a number far superior to the closer, (+138...fill in blanks on your own please).

How did you KNOW that new number would beat the closer?

Nicky Santoro · 08-31-10, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

How did you KNOW that new number would beat the closer?

he didn't.. if he knew this stuff, he'd not be on this forum. he'd be playing GOLF right now in the course he built. he'd be richer than billy gates.. no one can look at a line and just say, hey that line is off.. do that and watch how more often wrong you'll be than right.. the naked eye cannot see this.. even if you think you know every stat, it can easily go the other way.

alot of times you see a line like -150 and you say, whaaaaaaaaaaaat??? how can he be only -150?? he's 15-1 at home with a 1.57 era.. you bet the -150 and you are sure now it will close at -178 and you are happy with your bet.. and game closes at -126.

i bet you pros have seen this a lot in your lifetime, huh??