what would you do if you beat a Pinny closer by 25 cents

[Iceman]

he didn't.. if he knew this stuff, he'd not be on this forum. he'd be playing GOLF right now in the course he built. he'd be richer than billy gates.. no one can look at a line and just say, hey that line is off.. do that and watch how more often wrong you'll be than right.. the naked eye cannot see this.. even if you think you know every stat, it can easily go the other way.

alot of times you see a line like -150 and you say, whaaaaaaaaaaaat??? how can he be only -150?? he's 15-1 at home with a 1.57 era.. you bet the -150 and you are sure now it will close at -178 and you are happy with your bet.. and game closes at -126.

i bet you pros have seen this a lot in your lifetime, huh??

a lot easier to do off of openers thats for sure.

[Nicky Santoro]

a lot easier to do off of openers thats for sure.

not even openers..

there aint 1 poster at sbr that can look at a line with the naked eye and say this line is off, and he is right..

i'll never forget Justin7 last year (and justin7 is sharp).. he came in here last year at midnight and said, i can't believe tex is only -152, what a joke of a line.... everyone bet it now for tomorrow's game.. line is way off, it will close much higher.. and it closed at -141 and admitted next day he was wrong..

no one here can do this..

[statnerds]

not even openers..

there aint 1 poster at sbr that can look at a line with the naked eye and say this line is off, and he is right..

i'll never forget Justin7 last year (and justin7 is sharp).. he came in here last year at midnight and said, i can't believe tex is only -152, what a joke of a line.... everyone bet it now for tomorrow's game.. line is way off, it will close much higher.. and it closed at -141 and admitted next day he was wrong..

no one here can do this..

first off, thought I was in the minority thinking Justin7 is sharp, and I wonder how many people discredited him for one missed call. don't know how many guys would admit their error either like that, kudos.

second, didn't know I would beat the line

Wager Type:Money LineWager Status:WinRisk / To Win Amount:Accepted 8/29/2010 7:53 AM - EST

Sport / Period:MLB Baseball / Game Line:
Seattle Mariners 8/29/2010 4:10 PM - (EST)
+151Pitchers:C Pavano -R - Must Pitch L French -L - Must Pitch
advantage of living in the East I guess. although you West Coast guys get a crack at the openers, I'm in bed by 11 p.m. EST every night. liked the match-up and thought the price was decent. had no idea it would close at +126 at Pinny.

got the answers I expected from the sharp cats on this here forum. long term it would have a substantial edge, but anything could happen in 2 games.

Iceman - know it wasn't yours, as you said, but bet small, bet for life? love it!!!

[Iceman]

I can pick a part openers at a high enough rate to take leads and win in the long run doing this. Not everytime but easily for sure and enough to do so profitably. In fact this is the #1 reason I am aheead and have been able to do this profitably for the pas few years. Taking leads is huege to what I do or trying to beat the closing line.

Any sport I can do this that I follow closely. Just look for the mistkaes. now maybe not so much with the naked eye but using a few factors including that. I am sure there are many others who can also do this. In fact in MLB this year I have did 120 of these according to my records (pure scalps taking a lead) and am up over 3k doing so. Usually play 3k on each side and have made abour $25 on average a play. I try and make over a $100 a play but doesn't happen a lot of times. I have also lost on my share of these at times but its very doable is all I am going to say.

ActuallY I am surprised more people dont do this. This is just scalp as all my plays (which are to beat the cloing line) are made early also.

Statnerds,
operners in most sports come out the day before early like MLB lines are up for tomorrow right now at the Greek and should be up at Pinny very soon. In fact living in the east coast would be advantagous for this as you would have more time to do your work everday in the morning with these. I am hard pressed with my time. Most of plays for tomorrow are made today in all sports and is the main reasoon for my success.

[trixtrix]

statnerds, you seem to like to make a lot of generalizations and assumptions w/out proof, i think the consensus w/ regard to justin7 is that he's a mega-sharp, have to be in order to make a v good living doing this (i readily admit i'm currently not prepared to make that jump)

[HedgeHog]

In order to know what the Pinny closing # is, by definition the game has already started. So there really isn't much you can do at that point. Congrats on your two +Ev bets.

[RudyRuetigger]

second, didn't know I would beat the line

which is why you shouldn't have (and didn't) doubled the bet at worse odds

[statnerds]

statnerds, you seem to like to make a lot of generalizations and assumptions w/out proof, i think the consensus w/ regard to justin7 is that he's a mega-sharp, have to be in order to make a v good living doing this (i readily admit i'm currently not prepared to make that jump)

i'll do you one better there skeezix (see attached image), not only do I believe Jsutin7 is sharp, I will publicly state that he is fukkin awesome. I've been here for nearly a year now and am decipher who knows their shit, and whom merely talks poop.

What makes Justin7 even better: I must have asked that dude about 10 questions via PM and he has taken the time to answer every one of them. He knows more than I do but answers them in the most unassuming manner.

Same thing goes for Nicky and Iceman. Nicky took the time to help educate me as well. Iceman however, took it to another level. I wrote the guy like a book in one PM, and it took a day (which is completely understandable cause the guy is busy as all get out), but he addressed every point.

I hate to reveal that those guys were gracious enough to help me cause it is PM for a reason, but I think they all 3 deserve high marks for taking the time to help out a guy they don't know from Adam and owe nothing to. Fukkin great resources here on SBR.

I apologize in advance to Justin7, Iceman and Nicky if you guys get bombarded with PMs now, my bad. But you guys all deserve recognition, respect and continued success for being stand up guys.



did i just date myself with the skeezix ref?