Arbitrage Question

[garyking]

What ALL of you losers are doing is allowing yourselves to be put in a position where any on line casino can get rid of you for any reason at all and there is NOTHING that you can do about it. The fact is that ALL of you are losers in the long run. There is not one person in here who can honestly say that he is ahead overall since day one. That is because you fools spend too much time trying to figure out how to beat the books instead of how to win the games. I have won more money overall than anyone in here, by many hundreds of thousands of dollars. I did it by establishing myself at certain Shops in Vegas. I had a limit (and still do) of much more than any of you could ever afford, much less get. I win more than I lose but they always allow me to wager as much as I want because they know I am going to take care of them. What they lose to me is noting compared to the money I bring in for them. I am the only person in here who treats the books as my friends and you guys as the enemy.

I'm gonna take a page out of Morino's book...Dumb shit

[ace7550]

Interesting- I kind of wrote them off because I cashed out after my first deposit and then they just try to bait me with great 100% bonuses with 5x rollover and then tell me I'm not eligible. Didn't realize they had good baseball odds like that though. Will keep on eye on them going forward.

They tried to pull that on me. I called them and argued until they gave me the 100%. Even after cashing twice they still give me 25% cash.
If you are an MLB guy they are a must out.

[ace7550]

I'm gonna take a page out of Morino's book...Dumb shit

I stopped reading after 5 words. Best thing to do with a troll is ignore them.

[garyking]

LOL

[ace7550]

Wagerweb - Bama -2875
GT - Ark +5500

[milwaukee mike]

Wagerweb - Bama -2875
GT - Ark +5500

now that's a great scalp!

and you almost certainly lose at the book you want to lose at

[Tim_L]

Absolutely false. You maximize your expected bankroll growth by only betting the soft side. If one book has a coinflip as heads +120, tails -160 and the other sharp book has it -110/-110, who cares that the soft book has more juice? In fact you're making a mistake by betting tails at the sharp book.

If you read my post carefully, you will see that is what I said. I was replying to the poster that seemed to suggest that weighting the stakes in favour of the soft side allows you to grab more of the value. Which it doesn't, unless you just don't cover.

I am well aware of where the value is thank you.

I am sure this is not what the poster actually meant, but the original poster may construe it as such.

I can't see anywhere in my post where I suggest betting the sharp side. In fact, it provides a reasoning not to.

As for who cares that the soft book has more juice? Well, if someone was weighting arbitrage stakes to the soft book, then this may be something to consider for them. If an arbitrage player chooses to cover the sharp side and lose value that way, it is their choice and reasoning.

[ace7550]

now that's a great scalp!

and you almost certainly lose at the book you want to lose at

Yeah that was a weird one. You almost never see them with that big of underdogs. If Arkansas found a way to win Gt will get destroyed today.

[Tim_L]

Either way, you're definitely fukking up if you fully buy back. No exceptions.

Absolutely false.

There are situations where the reason the arb exists is because value has occured on both sides of the bet. In such a situation it does make sense to bet both sides, even if you're a hard core value bettor.

[ace7550]

Youwager Baltimore -135
Bookmaker Cleveland +142

[Roscoe_Word]

Youwager Baltimore -135
Bookmaker Cleveland +142

Heads up! Excellent.........

[ace7550]

Youwager Baltimore -135
Bookmaker Cleveland +142

Wake up in the morning and it's still there. Amazing.

[DISTROYA]

bigdaddy, if you are that good and make that much kudos for you...but I would not even read this thread let alone comment if I was (wish) in your position.
Give us all your winners and all will quit arbing forever, I guarantee that
But to call people losers because they bet where they cannot lose is not correct.
I cant pick games for the life of me, quit wagering straight up for the most part a while ago and arbing has recouped almost half my career losses which were significant to say the least.

[Crusherrr]

bigdaddy, if you are that good and make that much kudos for you...but I would not even read this thread let alone comment if I was (wish) in your position.
Give us all your winners and all will quit arbing forever, I guarantee that
But to call people losers because they bet where they cannot lose is not correct.
I cant pick games for the life of me, quit wagering straight up for the most part a while ago and arbing has recouped almost half my career losses which were significant to say the least.

It's like the people who chime in saying bonuses are for losers.

Maybe so, but the ones that know what they're doing- it couldn't be further from the truth.

[ace7550]

It's like the people who chime in saying bonuses are for losers.

Maybe so, but the ones that know what they're doing- it couldn't be further from the truth.

I've never understood people that don't take bonuses. Is the RO really that big a deal? Were you going to withdraw and never make another bet? You are going to eventually meet the RO. You might as well take the free money.

[ace7550]

FYI BOL's 5% boost on deposit is back. This is additional to any bonus you take.

[Sawyer]

I've never understood people that don't take bonuses. Is the RO really that big a deal? Were you going to withdraw and never make another bet? You are going to eventually meet the RO. You might as well take the free money.

I agree with you completely. Bonus is a free money. You must be stupid to not take it. It's a nice addition to your profits. Still, many people are still overlooking bonus offers.

I must admit I made this mistake as well, in the past. When I was a handicapper, I was overlooking bonuses. I was a pro after all and the reduced juice was the best bonus. Later, I realized picking odds higher then Pinnacle & enjoying bonus is much better then Pinnacle odds.

It's very hard to beat Pinnacle. If there's a bet you like, you must beat Pinnacle odds. Pinnacle is offering +105 for Miami. If you can grab it at +130 in a softbookmaker, you win over long haul. That's what we call value betting. Plus, you get bonus. Well, now you get the odds in your favor, that's what I call EDGE!

Btw, I miss old generous bonus offers. Costa rica bookmakers offering %50-100 bonuses were hammered hard

[jazzmonkey]

Agree, tough to beat Pinny. They do overreact, however, on steam moves which makes sense from a risk point of view - take the drifting price on a sharp move for US sports and you'll be in profit in the long run. Easier said than done of course

I agree with you completely. Bonus is a free money. You must be stupid to not take it. It's a nice addition to your profits. Still, many people are still overlooking bonus offers.

I must admit I made this mistake as well, in the past. When I was a handicapper, I was overlooking bonuses. I was a pro after all and the reduced juice was the best bonus. Later, I realized picking odds higher then Pinnacle & enjoying bonus is much better then Pinnacle odds.

It's very hard to beat Pinnacle. If there's a bet you like, you must beat Pinnacle odds. Pinnacle is offering +105 for Miami. If you can grab it at +130 in a softbookmaker, you win over long haul. That's what we call value betting. Plus, you get bonus. Well, now you get the odds in your favor, that's what I call EDGE!

Btw, I miss old generous bonus offers. Costa rica bookmakers offering %50-100 bonuses were hammered hard

[ace7550]

I wish Pinny accepted US players...

[DISTROYA]

just get VPN service

[ace7550]

just get VPN service

I would but I've heard a lot of stories about books screwing players for faking their IP address.

[kai_who]

Sawyer, thanks for entering the thread!

When you advise:

"don't bet odds above 3,20."

Is this because you think the market is too inefficient on these long odds to make it worthwhile to value bet?

For example when you see a +500/-900 line on a market book that you normally price compare with, are you saying you wouldn't value bet a +800 opportunity?

[Sawyer]

Sawyer, thanks for entering the thread!

When you advise:

"don't bet odds above 3,20."

Is this because you think the market is too inefficient on these long odds to make it worthwhile to value bet?

For example when you see a +500/-900 line on a market book that you normally price compare with, are you saying you wouldn't value bet a +800 opportunity?

Based on my experience, value bets above +220 are not very profitable. Not to mention, you may experience disastrous losing streaks. So it's better to arb these (you can just cover the risk if you like and create a risk-free bet) instead of taking risk.

[Tim_L]

Based on my experience, value bets above +220 are not very profitable. Not to mention, you may experience disastrous losing streaks. So it's better to arb these (you can just cover the risk if you like and create a risk-free bet) instead of taking risk.

What's the source of those bets. Many commercial alert services don't seem to know how to take into account margin bias, and thus report a lot of false positives.

[DISTROYA]

I would but I've heard a lot of stories about books screwing players for faking their IP address.

I was addressing pinnacle only they don't care

[deeppckts]

HOHOHO20 50% BOL bonus, 20HOHOHO at Sportsbetting
Expires this Friday

[ace7550]

Youwager Pelicans +170
BOL Heat -162

[Crusherrr]

Youwager Pelicans +170
BOL Heat -162

Now Pelicans +140 on YW

[ace7550]

Now Pelicans +140 on YW

It went from +150 to +170 to +140 in about 5 minutes. I bet a couple people hammered the Heat at the same time.

[Treebeard]

You can still make easily 100k a year even starting with 10k. Sign up bonuses are nice but reloads are just as good. Just have to know what you're doing and be willing to only bet big markets and dabble in casino games. It also helps I probably rake tens of thousands of dollars in poker on several of the sites as well

Gamblers no, Arbers&Bonus Hunters yes. 100k/year is very achievable for arbers&bonus abusers.
It's hard to make money with straight betting/handicapping. In my opinion, people who make profit over long haul should be less then %0.01.

Great thread guys. Just joined the forum, I've been doing a ton of research into pro sports betting recently.

I constantly see posts about accounts getting banned / limited for winning. Which kinda defeats the point...

How can you or others you know earn 100k a year?! Do you get around limiting or are there just enough cool bookmakers who won't ban / limit you?

[ace7550]

Great thread guys. Just joined the forum, I've been doing a ton of research into pro sports betting recently.

I constantly see posts about accounts getting banned / limited for winning. Which kinda defeats the point...

How can you or others you know earn 100k a year?! Do you get around limiting or are there just enough cool bookmakers who won't ban / limit you?

Most A+ sites don't limit you. I've been playing at BOL, BM, Bovada, Heritage etc for years and I've never been limited by any of them.
You're gonna have to beat them pretty badly to get limited. And if you do get limited, it'll be worth it.

[Sawyer]

Great thread guys. Just joined the forum, I've been doing a ton of research into pro sports betting recently.

I constantly see posts about accounts getting banned / limited for winning. Which kinda defeats the point...

How can you or others you know earn 100k a year?! Do you get around limiting or are there just enough cool bookmakers who won't ban / limit you?

Well, we have many friends
It's the only way to continue arbing..

[HomeRun35]

I constantly see posts about accounts getting banned / limited for winning. Which kinda defeats the point...

Most books are soft and will limit winners. You can avoid being limited at some of the soft books for a period of time by mixing in losing bets in major markets. If you're only firing sharp action at any book other than Pinnacle, Bookmaker, or BetOnline, you will get limited very quick. The exception for this for me has been B105(run by Heritage) but I specifically avoid betting overnight lines there to try and keep my limits where they are, which has so far worked out.

Do you get around limiting or are there just enough cool bookmakers who won't ban / limit you?

You just have to be good enough to beat the biggest books(without arbing or steam chasing) that are tolerant of sharp action which are the 3 I listed above.

[punintended]

You just have to be good enough to beat the biggest books(without arbing or steam chasing) that are tolerant of sharp action which are the 3 I listed above.

From what I've heard most pros don't do it this way because #1 it's hard, #2 you feed them information with your bets which diminishes your edge long term.

Instead, like Sawyer alluded to, they rely on friends to get them PPH and offshore accounts that copy the odds of the big 3.

The real question is how to make those accounts last for any significant length of time. It's very easy for a book to see that you're a sharp if you're beating the closing line 70%+ of the time, and it won't take very long for them to give you the boot.

I feel that you need to be betting right before kickoff, that way they don't have CLV to go on to determine if you're sharp or not.

Obviously winning betting the closing line is a lot harder then betting hours of days before the game. You can bet on smaller leagues which makes it easier, but then that looks pretty suspicious as well. What recreational player is going to only bet on stuff like Nicaraguan soccer?

So yea, I guess the way to go is like you said. Bet on many things close to gametime, break even (or lose a little) on the big leagues and make your money on the small/mid tier ones.

And have a good system in place to constantly be getting new accounts to replace the ones that limit you. Working on this myself now.

[HomeRun35]

From what I've heard most pros don't do it this way because #1 it's hard, #2 you feed them information with your bets which diminishes your edge long term.

I did not realize until I started posting here that there is such a thing as "pros" who make their living without being able to beat the Big 3 markets and win just by jumping around between soft books and collecting bonuses. I do not believe #2 to be true.

And have a good system in place to constantly be getting new accounts to replace the ones that limit you. Working on this myself now.

It really just depends on how you are getting your edge. Personally, that sounds like way too much of a hassle but apparently there are many different ways to eek out a profit in the sports betting world.