Is arbing sustainable?

[Dirty Butcher]

Everyday books are getting smarter. First deposit and early bets are important. I have a technique, I call it Planting technique. Just like planting a flower, I open an account and don't start arbing immediately. I sacrifice a small amount and I bet like a recreational bettor for 3-4 weeks. You don't always lose the money sometimes you get breakeven, sometimes you finish that period with a slight profit. Then I start to hammer the book but not with high stakes. Instead of betting 2000€ on a single event, you can place 4 bets x 500€. It also depends on league also, if your first bet is Macedonia 1st League or Russian Women Volleyball 2nd league, don't expect to have a long life in that book.
Another important tip, don't let your balance get very high in one bookie except sharp ones. You can have problems if your balance in bookie is above 10k. Asians and Pinnacle are safe though. I remember I had over 100k in Pinnacle and didn't had any problems at all.

In the past, We were able to place bets with much higher stakes. In 2014, my yearly turnover was around 12 Million €. Last year, it was 2.7 Million. You can see how it's decreased dramatically. Nowadays, placing a bet with high stake is very very risky. My advice is bet less but bet many. Bet 10x500 instead of trying to place 5000 on a single event. Good luck!

Very useful tips thank you and wow your turnover is insane! It surprises me that it's dropped so dramatically though. Do you think it has become more risky to place large bets vs before and why? Or have you just changed your strategy? Also, would you say that your turnover has also reduced due to being limited at most of the books where you can place large stakes, or just that in general bookies are lowering their max bets? The betting industry has continued to grow a lot over the past few years so it would be surprising if max bets have been lowered across the board on average. I guess it could also just be that they are getting smarter and therefore limit you quicker

[Sawyer]

I like to reply with a single sentence: ''Even Pinnacle reduced limits. Even Pinnacle..''

[Dirty Butcher]

I like to reply with a single sentence: ''Even Pinnacle reduced limits. Even Pinnacle..''

It's strange because surely they make more money with higher limits given their business model?

[dealer wins]

With more any more countries banning Pinny, only smart gamblers will bother with agents/vpns etc So they keep getting the smart action without any mug action, hence they are struggling. Its government regulation and draconian taxes that is killing the whole online sports betting (and casino) market slowly but surely!

[TheMoneyShot]

With more any more countries banning Pinny, only smart gamblers will bother with agents/vpns etc So they keep getting the smart action without any mug action, hence they are struggling. Its government regulation and draconian taxes that is killing the whole online sports betting (and casino) market slowly but surely!

There's a book called Fairlay... you can only wager with Bitcoin. It's been a few months since I wagered with them.... but they were cloning Pinny lines. I don't know if they do that anymore or not?

[Dirty Butcher]

With more any more countries banning Pinny, only smart gamblers will bother with agents/vpns etc So they keep getting the smart action without any mug action, hence they are struggling. Its government regulation and draconian taxes that is killing the whole online sports betting (and casino) market slowly but surely!

Is that simply because mug punters increase the size of the market, so less mug punters - > smaller market - > lower limits? So struggling in the sense that they are getting lower volumes? Because I would imagine for sharp bookmakers, sharp punters are still very profitable for them since the value is being taken from other bookies and not them.

[dealer wins]

Sharp players constantly back the sharp side of the line. Whether they are sharp because they arb, have game info or just bet only when the odds are out of line with others, it hurts to only have sharp bettors! Hence why soft books ban them quickly, Pinny try to be smarter than the sharps but its hard without mug money!!

[Dirty Butcher]

Sharp players constantly back the sharp side of the line. Whether they are sharp because they arb, have game info or just bet only when the odds are out of line with others, it hurts to only have sharp bettors! Hence why soft books ban them quickly, Pinny try to be smarter than the sharps but its hard without mug money!!

Understood, didn't think of it like that before. Hopefully Pinnacle will get licenses in the UK and US in the next few years which would bring in a lot of mug money!

[Codone69]

Understood, didn't think of it like that before. Hopefully Pinnacle will get licenses in the UK and US in the next few years which would bring in a lot of mug money!

My dream for Pinny.

[Sawyer]

There's a book called Fairlay... you can only wager with Bitcoin. It's been a few months since I wagered with them.... but they were cloning Pinny lines. I don't know if they do that anymore or not?

I suggest to be careful with Pinny-like bookmakers. Cloning Pinnacle lines is easy but running the business for long time requires a strong capital. Once there was a bookmaker, Gobetgo. They were cloning Pinnacle lines. They went bankrupt. I had lost 12k there. They did't pay.

[lonnie55]

Once there was a bookmaker, Gobetgo. They were cloning Pinnacle lines. They went bankrupt.

They didn't go bankrupt. They ran away with the money.

[semibluff]

Is that simply because mug punters increase the size of the market, so less mug punters - > smaller market - > lower limits? So struggling in the sense that they are getting lower volumes? Because I would imagine for sharp bookmakers, sharp punters are still very profitable for them since the value is being taken from other bookies and not them.

Sharp punters are never very profitable for books. The best a book can hope to do is break even against them whilst the losses are at the other book. The Sharp book is still adversely affected by arbing because the lines are influenced by the 'bad' lines at the Soft book. Money might be forcing a -130, +118 line towards -135, +122 at a sharp book but if the smaller Soft book is still laying -118, -102 the Sharp book is creating an arbing opportunity if it moves the line. If it holds the line it's trading at a sub-optimal line with the vast majority, (non-arbing) community. Sub-optimal lines mean lower profit margins and greater risk caused by lopsided books.

[jjgold]

there are no sharp bettors

no such thing

[lonnie55]

there are no sharp bettors

no such thing

[pythonic]

If some suspicious book just copies pinny lines, you would be well advised to rather stay with the original.

[TheMoneyShot]

I suggest to be careful with Pinny-like bookmakers. Cloning Pinnacle lines is easy but running the business for long time requires a strong capital. Once there was a bookmaker, Gobetgo. They were cloning Pinnacle lines. They went bankrupt. I had lost 12k there. They did't pay.

Appreciate your advice. I also like reading your posts about arbing. Thank you.

[ouzoun]

In my opinion arbing is dead. It is dead because soft bookmakers bookmakers will limit you after 2-3 bets. You can survive longer if you do in play arbitrage. Like this your accounts will stay alive for months or even years. In play arbitrage is stressful please notice that. It is not for everyone but only for those with strong nerves. I see there is a trend right now, people leaving arbing for live arbing and then leaving live arbing for value betting.
Arbitrage between sharp bookmaker is possible but again not for everyone. You have to know that in arbing world people will try to discourage you and tell you all the BS of the world so you don't even try. When you hear ''that's impossible'' then this is the case. All the old guys want the pie for themselves and they want newbies to stay out, because they will get a part of the pie.

[cashin81]

if arbing was dead (or just value betting), no one would be limited.

[Alfa1234]

if arbing was dead (or just value betting), no one would be limited.

You have it backwards, arbing is (almost) dead because bookies limit very quickly, not the other way around.

[cashin81]

You have it backwards, arbing is (almost) dead because bookies limit very quickly, not the other way around.

No i mean if it was truly dead, then books wouldnt be worried about limiting.

ive had lots of books where ive arbed in play, and had accounts over 1 yr which is fair enough.

ive had pre match bet when they limit after one bet, i guess its easier to norice the odds pre match.

[cashin81]

zarkovo/borac fixed as hell.

zarkovo kick off 1.05 odds , 2-0 half time - Borac favs to win 2h lol

[Alfa1234]

No i mean if it was truly dead, then books wouldnt be worried about limiting.

ive had lots of books where ive arbed in play, and had accounts over 1 yr which is fair enough.

ive had pre match bet when they limit after one bet, i guess its easier to norice the odds pre match.

If they stopped limiting, they would revive arbing so I still believe you have it backwards.

[cashin81]

If they stopped limiting, they would revive arbing so I still believe you have it backwards.

who said they should stop limiting? Im saying the proof that arbing is still alive, is that books are still having to limit players regularly.

[lonnie55]

@cashin81 As long as we have not reached the situation that EVERY market is 100% efficient (which will never happen imo) there will be sharps who beat the bookies. Sure, A.I., improved algorithms and bots will help bookies to make more efficient odds and identify sharps earlier but what they still don't do is a research of soft information and that is currently the edge sharps have over books (and hopefully keep it)

[cashin81]

@cashin81 As long as we have not reached the situation that EVERY market is 100% efficient (which will never happen imo) there will be sharps who beat the bookies. Sure, A.I., improved algorithms and bots will help bookies to make more efficient odds and identify sharps earlier but what they still don't do is a research of soft information and that is currently the edge sharps have over books (and hopefully keep it)

yeah i agree with that. until theres no opportunity, its not dead.

[Sawyer]

It's like life guys. Some people live 100 years while some die young. It's up to you

[Sawyer]

By the way, I'm arbing since 2012 Summer. I had started sports betting in 2003. Sports betting arbitrage is still profitable business but things started to get more harder and challenging recently. I'm thinking about retirement in 2-3 years.

[Dirty Butcher]

Sawyer, do you hedge your risk of some books stealing your money or the book going bust and losing your money at all? Surely this is a big risk to factor in when doing this with large amount like you do. Likewise with brokers, do you simply trust them or do you protect your money with them in some way? There have been stories of bookmakers and brokers closing down and people not getting their money, this would crush profits a huge amount if this happens. Any insight on your opinion of this risk would be amazing

[stevex]

Sawyer, do you hedge your risk of some books stealing your money or the book going bust and losing your money at all? Surely this is a big risk to factor in when doing this with large amount like you do. Likewise with brokers, do you simply trust them or do you protect your money with them in some way? There have been stories of bookmakers and brokers closing down and people not getting their money, this would crush profits a huge amount if this happens. Any insight on your opinion of this risk would be amazing

He clearly doesn’t live in the U.S if he’s profiting from arbing. No way you can do it in the States this day in age.

[Dirty Butcher]

Arbing from the UK and Europe can be very profitable, this risk is probably the biggest risk there is for arbers i feel