The Future of Arbitrage Betting

[rkelly110]

So, are you saying you can't lose arbing? Why is what I'm doing not the same as arbing?

No, I don't understand arbing, because of having all that money at all those different books. To me that's stupid.
A book keeping nightmare, not to mention the mental nightmare of wondering if you got the best possible price
and still lose.

This is only one tool in my tool box, I don't use it daily. I don't have all day to chase odds around. I work.

I use the KISS method, don't like kicking my own ass. You guys carry on, have fun and good luck.

[Hareeba!]

So, are you saying you can't lose arbing? Why is what I'm doing not the same as arbing?

No, I don't understand arbing, because of having all that money at all those different books. To me that's stupid.
A book keeping nightmare, not to mention the mental nightmare of wondering if you got the best possible price
and still lose.

This is only one tool in my tool box, I don't use it daily. I don't have all day to chase odds around. I work.

I use the KISS method, don't like kicking my own ass. You guys carry on, have fun and good luck.

Don't give up your day job!

[rangerz2478]

So, are you saying you can't lose arbing? Why is what I'm doing not the same as arbing?

No, I don't understand arbing, because of having all that money at all those different books. To me that's stupid.
A book keeping nightmare, not to mention the mental nightmare of wondering if you got the best possible price
and still lose.

This is only one tool in my tool box, I don't use it daily. I don't have all day to chase odds around. I work.

I use the KISS method, don't like kicking my own ass. You guys carry on, have fun and good luck.

Dude, arbing is the act of buying and selling simultaneously in different markets in order to take advantage of variance that exists between those markets. When you arb, you are obviously getting an edge. What you are doing is THINKING you are getting an edge that absolutely doesn't exist. You need to understand the math of what you are doing, and I hate to break it to you, you don't. I'm in a charitable mood so I'll help you out here...

In your +135 both sides example, say you bet $100 on each

$100-$135 on ML
$100-$135 on -1.5

If the fave wins by 1, you are out $200. If they don't you profit $35. Therefore you are betting $200 to win $35 that the fave DOESN'T win by 1. This is essentially laying -600 this doesn't happen. Now ask yourself, if there was a prop "will the fave win by exactly 1 run?" Would you take the no at -600? Because by doing what you are doing, that is EXACTLY what you are betting. You are giving the book the edge, which is the absolute opposite of arbing.

Hope this helps.

[relaaxx]

rkelly110----people here are trying to help you out. everyone makes mistakes don't get pissed at remarks from people who have been doing this much longer. the math does not lie. please listen to them on this. follow games without risking any money for a while. see how often you would win $35 on a hundred and how many times you lose the $200. you must win 6 times for every one $200 loss. try it for a couple weeks. it may change your mind. good luck

[rkelly110]

Looks like 4 for 4 last night. 7-0 last two days.

Yes fellas, I know the odds and the risk to reward ratio. I used a minimum of +135 to make money. As you can see,
some winners had +156 and higher odds. This has to hit at 90% or better to make money if you are to use it as
your only source of betting income. IT'S ONLY A TOOL!

I'm showing my hand and gave you guys a tool for your tool box. How you use it is on you. If you want to bust my
balls on a MLB and NHL strategy I gave up for free, by all means have at it.

[shaunovery]

Maybe this needs to be researched a bit closer

Anyone have any stats on the percentage of 1 run games by favs

[Sawyer]

USa its impossible to Arb PERIOD

JJ, sorry i didnt understand?

[Legions36]

OP is one of the smartest people in this forum, how u guys question him is beyond me. I just sit back and read his threads and learn, this has been going on for years now.

[relaaxx]

Looks like 4 for 4 last night. 7-0 last two days.

Yes fellas, I know the odds and the risk to reward ratio. I used a minimum of +135 to make money. As you can see,
some winners had +156 and higher odds. This has to hit at 90% or better to make money if you are to use it as
your only source of betting income. IT'S ONLY A TOOL!

I'm showing my hand and gave you guys a tool for your tool box. How you use it is on you. If you want to bust my
balls on a MLB and NHL strategy I gave up for free, by all means have at it.

have to say at 1st i just dismissed the whole idea but i found i kept thinking about it - you have been around for years and sound sincere so i am going to at least look into it more. thanks either way

[stevex]

Are you picking certain games where two teams don't have a lot of 1 run game differences? I don't get how you pick 1 game over the other?

[BigDaddy]

lol lol @ both posts above

[relaaxx]

yes it's funny and seems ridiculous - but i've got the time and just curious enough to see if the math in this case is not the outcome.

[rangerz2478]

have to say at 1st i just dismissed the whole idea but i found i kept thinking about it - you have been around for years and sound sincere so i am going to at least look into it more. thanks either way

Dude, lol.

[BAUS]

Looks like 4 for 4 last night. 7-0 last two days.

Yes fellas, I know the odds and the risk to reward ratio. I used a minimum of +135 to make money. As you can see,
some winners had +156 and higher odds. This has to hit at 90% or better to make money if you are to use it as
your only source of betting income. IT'S ONLY A TOOL!

I'm showing my hand and gave you guys a tool for your tool box. How you use it is on you. If you want to bust my
balls on a MLB and NHL strategy I gave up for free, by all means have at it.

Wanti?

BAUS

[Sawyer]

Guys, let's not move away from the main subject of thread please. Rkelly, I appreciate/respect your betting strategy but it's not arbing/trading. I wish you good luck with your strategy.

The main subject is Future of Arbitrage Betting and Live Arbing. Thanks.

[Optional]

Do you have any tools to find live arbs or do you have to keep multiple books open and just hope something pops up between the ones you are watching?

[rkelly110]

Guys, let's not move away from the main subject of thread please. Rkelly, I appreciate/respect your betting strategy but it's not arbing/trading. I wish you good luck with your strategy.

The main subject is Future of Arbitrage Betting and Live Arbing. Thanks.

Sorry. My understanding of Arbing is limited. I thought arbing was betting both sides of the same game and searching
the books for the best odds. Guess I was wrong. GL guys.

[Sawyer]

Do you have any tools to find live arbs or do you have to keep multiple books open and just hope something pops up between the ones you are watching?

Thank you for your question. I do both.

[shaunovery]

Sorry. My understanding of Arbing is limited. I thought arbing was betting both sides of the same game and searching
the books for the best odds. Guess I was wrong. GL guys.

Yes arbing is

Betting both sides of a game at different odds, what your relying on is books having different odds and being able to take advantage of both

There's other versions of arbing like middling taking one side at the start of the game and during that game bet the other side

[chachi]

Yes arbing is
Betting both sides of a game at different odds, what your relying on is books having different odds and being able to take advantage of both

Correct ... and simultaneous or nearly so excepting time for bets to be accepted.

There's other versions of arbing like middling taking one side at the start of the game and during that game bet the other side

No, this is legging into a position "while sitting in church hoping for nothing adverse to occur" as it were.

Middling is pairing A+7 and B-5.5 or such and aiming for a double payout or payout + void.

Sawyer's use of the phrase 'live arbing' is a misnomer.

[Hareeba!]

Middling is pairing A+7 and B-5.5 or such and aiming for a double payout or payout + void.

This is most definitely a form of arbing if the bets are placed simultaneously.

[chachi]

This is most definitely a form of arbing if the bets are placed simultaneously.

I didn't say that it wasn't ... just clearing up Shaun's remark

[shaunovery]

Sorry I didn't explain middling very well , but chachi kindly corrected me

Been cleaning up the free money last couple weeks on betfairs twitter comp

[chachi]

lol ... I won one of their Golden Boot competitions a couple of years ago to the tune of €5k ...

a memorable celebration that weekend

[Sawyer]

Arbitrage Betting changed a lot in recent years. I really wonder how it will look like after 10 years, probably I will be retired by that time.

[KalouKalou]

Arbitrage Betting changed a lot in recent years. I really wonder how it will look like after 10 years, probably I will be retired by that time.

How old are you?

[Sawyer]

How old are you?

34.

I started sports betting in 2003. I was a straight bettor in my early years. I turned pro in 2009 October, started to work as a professional handicapper. I had ups, I had downs but it was good. Then, I started to mess with Betfair and switched/focused on arbitrage trading in 2012. Arbitrage is still a profitable business but it's getting more challenging every day. May be more difficult after some 4-5 years. You know betting industry changes fast. With money I accumulated by betting and trading, I started to buy real estates and renting them. I'm planning a retirement after few years. I like to spend more time with my children when they grow up, specially in weekends..

[Spacefrog]

Thank you for your question. I do both.

What kind of tools do you use Sawyer?
Public ones or your own design?

[jjgold]

If you do not have big credit accounts very hard to scalp

moving money too hard and too many fees

Its a dying business

[shaunovery]

Very hard to get good money on these days

But if you keep your limits a little smaller then you will have no problem

[Sawyer]

If you do not have big credit accounts very hard to scalp
moving money too hard and too many fees
Its a dying business

Very hard to get good money on these days
But if you keep your limits a little smaller then you will have no problem

Arbing still is a very profitable business in europe but it changed its ways a little bit. Using e-wallets and broker/agent services is a good way to avoid/reduce fees. Having a large bankroll also helps.

Old school arbing is dying but new forms of arbing are still very profitable. Personally, I'm making more profit this year so far then my previous year. I guess it will take 2-3 years more for european bookies to wake up so we may still have some good years ahead.

What kind of tools do you use Sawyer?
Public ones or your own design?

Own design. If you want to make serious profit in this business, then you must have a different way. I enjoy exploring/finding new strategies/tactics to beat books. If you're a creative arber, then you get your reward in many ways.