How exactly does Vegas set lines?

[Good2cu]

Hey guys first post, didn't know whether to post this in the newbie questions area or here, but this area
seems specifically related to this type of question.

I'm an average sports bettor, have a pretty small bank roll, have my good days and my bad days (lol), but throughout gambling for the last 4 years or so I've always wondered this question and have never gotten a definitive answer.

How exactly does Vegas set lines? I've heard two answers

1) They set them according to how much action they think they can get on both sides, meaning they want to get 50% action on each side and increase the amount of vig they get on their games. I've heard they don't care who wins or who loses as long as they get enough to balance the line.

2) They run mathematical calculations and statistical analysis based off how teams match up and get exactly how the game ends up according to their computers and than base the spread on this information.

Now, if the answer is #1, how is it possible they get the line so damn accurate literally every single time? Besides the occasional blowout it seems most gamblers end up having to sweat their wins with less than 20 seconds left in a given game (NBA at least)

Anyway appreciate any help from more of the experienced/veteran posters here. I've been a lurker for a long time and decided this would be a good place to finally sign up and try and increase my roll/learn from other posters. Also I read the entire thread on Steve Stevens and the CNBC show "Money talks" and have never laughed harder. props to that one guy JJ who called and talked to Pirelli.

[jaytee20]

"Vegas" copies their lines from the large offshore books.

[sourtwist]

Robl wannabe

[Good2cu]

Robl wannabe

[jjgold]

Las Vegas sports consultants usually set the lines first it's a private company

I guess they use various computer models

I do believe most offshore sports books subscribe

Of course all the books subscribed to Don best sports a line service

Most books don't move on action but move off other books

[Good2cu]

[allin1]

good post jj

does vegas open before betcris?

[dealer wins]

Pinnacle has the perfect system for line setting. Opening lines have very small limits, which get pulled and pushed as they find the true middle, and Pinnacle gradually increase the limits as they get there.

Very smart!! (even though I wont deposit there any more due to their rollover requirements)

[jjgold]

Rarely

Cris as earlier openers

good post jj

does vegas open before betcris?

[JoeyBagels]

Mispost

[JoeyBagels]

It's a diverse market so the lines are set in a variety of ways for a variety of sports around the world. Just as general overview of how it works IMO.

-For small/medium and PPH books (usually locals or agents) the lines are all copied from Pinnacle/Cris. They subscribe to a line service like Donbest and move on air as the market moves. Some books may look to balance action but it's a rather antiquated notion at this point atm I'd estimate 99% of them have a position on games usually. There are some books though that shade lines they get a lot of action on. So you're a local out of Boston and you know almost all your NHL action is coming in the Bruins with the market at -127/117 and 140/125 at PIN/CRIS respectively you may deal -150 to your clients and give up 130 on MTL. If you've got a decent square client base you're not worried about the buyback on the 130 because you've got so much on the bruins, maybe you will welcome some buyback on MTL so that you don't get your nose opened too much. Some online books shade action a lot and they can be exploited for profit but finding them is part of the game if you want to win money.

-For major markets (NFL/NBA/NHL) Cris/PIN set openers. They employ a service like LVSC that has proprietary mathematical models that set a base line and they have limits on openers as they look to sharps to shape the line with their betting. So once the "soft" openers have been hardened via sharps they increase limits and move on sharp action. Markets trend towards "efficiency" but they are not always efficient because they are so fractured. It's a bit of a cat and mouse game with punters and books. Some sharps/syndicates don't attack openers and wait till the game starts before betting as the limits are highest then (you'll see late moves in the market right before the game starts). Some syndicates also bait and switch. So maybe they'll place a couple grand of false bets via beards to move the market one way and then bring a lot of money on the other side at various outs. Sometimes two sharp players just have differing opinions on the game and may move the market both ways.

-I've read that pinnacle employs "in house" handicappers to set some markets. Whether this is true or not I have no idea. My impression is that they are culled from their customer base based on their results. I think most of it on their end is just math models and using limits to shape the market.

-There's also huge Asian outfits that book for soccer and horse racing and stuff whose action dwarf the major US sports markets but I don't know much about that besides of their existance.

[JoeyBagels]

Also at this point "Vegas" is largely irrevelent. Maybe sharps can find a book there that opens earliar but the whole town as far as sports betting goes is a joke. They are afraid to take action off anything but the squarest punter and will either ban you if you win too much or just have limit constraints that make betting impossible. They don't set for the major sports so the days of the "Stardust" posting and the world moving are long over. The whole place could be nuked to the ground and the betting market would not skip a beat.

I'm not arguing that some guys can't make a living out there but as far as the markets go it means nothing now.

[rangerz2478]

Also at this point "Vegas" is largely irrevelent. Maybe sharps can find a book there that opens earliar but the whole town as far as sports betting goes is a joke. They are afraid to take action off anything but the squarest punter and will either ban you if you win too much or just have limit constraints that make betting impossible. They don't set for the major sports so the days of the "Stardust" posting and the world moving are long over. The whole place could be nuked to the ground and the betting market would not skip a beat.

I'm not arguing that some guys can't make a living out there but as far as the markets go it means nothing now.

Very well said. Have been an online player all my life, but went to Vegas a couple months back and was NOT impressed at all. Basically zero ingame wagering, and they offer nothing special (besides cash transactions) that you can't get online. Give me offshore any day of the week over vegas. Not even a fair fight.

[Good2cu]

Also at this point "Vegas" is largely irrevelent. Maybe sharps can find a book there that opens earliar but the whole town as far as sports betting goes is a joke. They are afraid to take action off anything but the squarest punter and will either ban you if you win too much or just have limit constraints that make betting impossible. They don't set for the major sports so the days of the "Stardust" posting and the world moving are long over. The whole place could be nuked to the ground and the betting market would not skip a beat.

I'm not arguing that some guys can't make a living out there but as far as the markets go it means nothing now.

Are you saying that if I'm a winning bettor in Vegas I'm really going to get limited at some books? I mean, wouldn't they want to encourage me to keep betting as much as possible because in the long run rarely anybody is ahead except for the sharps who make a living at it and even those are few and far inbetween?

And thanks to all those who answered the question, getting more of a feel for how exactly lines are set.

[JoeyBagels]

Are you saying that if I'm a winning bettor in Vegas I'm really going to get limited at some books? I mean, wouldn't they want to encourage me to keep betting as much as possible because in the long run rarely anybody is ahead except for the sharps who make a living at it and even those are few and far inbetween?

And thanks to all those who answered the question, getting more of a feel for how exactly lines are set.

It's not like poker where everyone is welcome because the rake doesn't discriminate as long as the game runs. For a sportsbook sharp players will crush a books bottom line. Sportsbooks today in Vegas are basically a sideshow to keep whales on a property, maybe make a bit of money and certainly not to LOSE money. So yes they will ban you. The only books that don't limit or ban are exchanges that welcome the liquidity and Pinnacle. As for the rest of them it's you vs the books/other punters so get used to it.

[jjgold]

Vegas lines are probably sharper than thank shorelines because they wait a little longer to tighten the lineup

You will get limited it much quicker offshore verse Las Vegas. If you're betting 500 a gamer so In Las Vegas you rarely get limited know matter how much you win

Vegas sports betting is more popular now because of US restrictions on offshore sports books. It's a major hassle withdrawing and depositing money