Hey guys first post, didn't know whether to post this in the newbie questions area or here, but this area
seems specifically related to this type of question.
I'm an average sports bettor, have a pretty small bank roll, have my good days and my bad days (lol), but throughout gambling for the last 4 years or so I've always wondered this question and have never gotten a definitive answer.
How exactly does Vegas set lines? I've heard two answers
1) They set them according to how much action they think they can get on both sides, meaning they want to get 50% action on each side and increase the amount of vig they get on their games. I've heard they don't care who wins or who loses as long as they get enough to balance the line.
2) They run mathematical calculations and statistical analysis based off how teams match up and get exactly how the game ends up according to their computers and than base the spread on this information.
Now, if the answer is #1, how is it possible they get the line so damn accurate literally every single time? Besides the occasional blowout it seems most gamblers end up having to sweat their wins with less than 20 seconds left in a given game (NBA at least)
Anyway appreciate any help from more of the experienced/veteran posters here. I've been a lurker for a long time and decided this would be a good place to finally sign up and try and increase my roll/learn from other posters. Also I read the entire thread on Steve Stevens and the CNBC show "Money talks" and have never laughed harder. props to that one guy JJ who called and talked to Pirelli.
seems specifically related to this type of question.
I'm an average sports bettor, have a pretty small bank roll, have my good days and my bad days (lol), but throughout gambling for the last 4 years or so I've always wondered this question and have never gotten a definitive answer.
How exactly does Vegas set lines? I've heard two answers
1) They set them according to how much action they think they can get on both sides, meaning they want to get 50% action on each side and increase the amount of vig they get on their games. I've heard they don't care who wins or who loses as long as they get enough to balance the line.
2) They run mathematical calculations and statistical analysis based off how teams match up and get exactly how the game ends up according to their computers and than base the spread on this information.
Now, if the answer is #1, how is it possible they get the line so damn accurate literally every single time? Besides the occasional blowout it seems most gamblers end up having to sweat their wins with less than 20 seconds left in a given game (NBA at least)
Anyway appreciate any help from more of the experienced/veteran posters here. I've been a lurker for a long time and decided this would be a good place to finally sign up and try and increase my roll/learn from other posters. Also I read the entire thread on Steve Stevens and the CNBC show "Money talks" and have never laughed harder. props to that one guy JJ who called and talked to Pirelli.
