List of bookmakers - Who accpet arbitrary bet?

[allin1]

Sorry, what is BTCL?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12yGXmdxl3k

[pippo-c-l]

Thank you for your video but sorry i have not understood.
Can you do an example?

[goombah]

I thought that was an interesting video. Learn something new everyday.

[allin1]

Thank you for your video but sorry i have not understood.
Can you do an example?

beating the closing line (btcl) is betting at odds better than closing line. For example you take +102 and the line closes at -110. Use search on this forum you will find other threads with btcl

[Topo]

Value side may work over time. However it's no guarantee of victory, so it carries risk. Arbs are risk free.

Respectfully, I have to take issue with this. Arbs are not risk free. You can get timed out on one side or have a bookmaker cancel the bet. Maybe it's less risky overall, but you can certainly get burned.

[bobbywaves]

Not sure what you mean by timed out, as I'm not betting seconds before a game starts. As for a cancelled bet, that doesn't hurt you when both books have the same house rules. But I'll rephrase my statement, arbs are only risk free if you're not an idiot & know what you're doing.

[pippo-c-l]

Sorry but for example inter-juventus:

Initial line 3,5 3 2,2

I bet 10€ Inter winner @3,5

Line closes 3 3,2 2,4

How to earn with my bet if Inter doesn't win?!

[allin1]

Sorry but for example inter-juventus:

Initial line 3,5 3 2,2

I bet 10€ Inter winner @3,5

Line closes 3 3,2 2,4

How to earn with my bet if Inter doesn't win?!

if we flip a coin and I always pick tails and you give me 2.15 odds every time even if I lose my first 10 bets, I will win in the long run because the odds imply a probability of 46.51% for an outcome that actually has a probability of 50%

It's mathematics and probability.

If the probability of an outcome is x% but I can take odds that have implied probability x-4% (I took 4 at random, it can be 5 or 6 etc.) I will win in the long run because I have an edge.

The closing line is the most closer to the fair line, the one that reflects the correct probability for that outcome therefor every time you beat the closing line, you are actually having a mathematical edge regarding probability.

If one event has 60% probability but you find odds of 1.95 then you have an edge. because you will win 6 times out of 10. Of course, 4 times you will lose, but in the long run, you will make money. 6x0.95-5=1.7 units profit.

This is the only way you can actually be profitable in the long run in any kind of betting/gambling/speculating: if you have an edge.

[bobbywaves]

In your experience, rank the following books which have the most accurate (hardest to beat) closing lines:

1) Pinnacle
2) Bookmaker
3) 5 Dimes
4) Heritage

So in the rankings example above, you would have an edge by betting a line as far off as possible from Pinnacle's lines.

[jjgold]

Respectfully, I have to take issue with this. Arbs are not risk free. You can get timed out on one side or have a bookmaker cancel the bet. Maybe it's less risky overall, but you can certainly get burned.

mistakes too..any of these conditions wipe out at least one month of profits

[bobbywaves]

When you double check your bets before placing, these "mistakes" don't happen. And why are you assuming a mistake will hurt you? A mistake can just as easily benefit you as well.

[lakersno1]

hey guys, nice discussion. I wanted to ask...is it arbing if i get a totals line, for ex. in one book i get under 150.5 and in other i get over 146.5? So im waiting on the middle, the total to go between 147 and 150, if it doesnt go like this i lose some money and if it goes 147to150 i win both bets with great risk to win ratio? is this arbitrage or not? and is this allowed from the bookies? I am from Europe so i can get to most of the books and can do this if possible.

thanks for the replies....keep up the good discussion in this thread!

[bobbywaves]

No...that's middling, not arbing. This is gr8 to do as well, in your example you can only lose vig & possibly win both bets. It's allowed, just hard to find a big middle. Arb is very different, as there's no chance of loss. Game outcome is irrelevant. Basic example is you find Mets at +140 in Book A, & find Pirates -120 in Book B. Depending on your available bankroll in both books, you enter the risk amount for bet #1 & enter odds of both bets using an arb calculator: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...ge-calculator/

Let's say you risk $4,000 on Pirates at -120, the calculator will tell you to risk $3,055.56 on Mets +140. Locking in a guaranteed profit of $277.78!!!!

[lakersno1]

No...that's middling, not arbing. This is gr8 to do as well, in your example you can only lose vig & possibly win both bets. It's allowed, just hard to find a big middle. Arb is very different, as there's no chance of loss. Game outcome is irrelevant. Basic example is you find Mets at +140 in Book A, & find Pirates -120 in Book B. Depending on your available bankroll in both books, you enter the risk amount for bet #1 & enter odds of both bets using an arb calculator: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...ge-calculator/

Let's say you risk $4,000 on Pirates at -120, the calculator will tell you to risk $3,055.56 on Mets +140. Locking in a guaranteed profit of $277.78!!!!

yeah but we are gamblers after all.... we need that little bit of uncertainty in events so we can cheer for one or other side. Risk free is great but middling is also good and interesting and profitable!

[onemoregoal]

You can also weight the arb if you want to cheer one side.
Book A = overs 2.38 (+138) £100 = £238
Book B = unders 1.91 (-110) odds £110 = £210

So you will be cheering overs at Book A and get money back for unders, book B.
Maybe thats middling also? I dont know.

[lakersno1]

thats called freerolling. You cant lose anything but you can win money, just like a freeroll bet.

[bobbywaves]

yeah but we are gamblers after all.... we need that little bit of uncertainty in events so we can cheer for one or other side. Risk free is great but middling is also good and interesting and profitable!

I'm in this to make $, I don't need any uncertainty. Like poster onemoregoal said, if you want some uncertainty you don't have to make the arb exactly equal. If you want risk, then you shouldn't arb at all. I agree middling is good. However, arbing is much better.

[daejeon]

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/arbitrage-calculator/[/URL]

Let's say you risk $4,000 on Pirates at -120, the calculator will tell you to risk $3,055.56 on Mets +140. Locking in a guaranteed profit of $277.78!!!!

cool story
and what american facing book would have such an arb AND accept 4000 on a regular basis?

[jjgold]

What happens when one side wins 5 times in a row and that is real easy now your out like 20,0000 at one book , you might have to wait for money from other book to get back in action

Need massive bankroll and also have to pray book does not it you which most do

Simply not worth all hassle of moving money around and starring at computer all day

This day and age arbing not good

No...that's middling, not arbing. This is gr8 to do as well, in your example you can only lose vig & possibly win both bets. It's allowed, just hard to find a big middle. Arb is very different, as there's no chance of loss. Game outcome is irrelevant. Basic example is you find Mets at +140 in Book A, & find Pirates -120 in Book B. Depending on your available bankroll in both books, you enter the risk amount for bet #1 & enter odds of both bets using an arb calculator: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...ge-calculator/

Let's say you risk $4,000 on Pirates at -120, the calculator will tell you to risk $3,055.56 on Mets +140. Locking in a guaranteed profit of $277.78!!!!

[allin1]

Simply not worth all hassle of moving money around and starring at computer all day

This day and age arbing not good

sounds like a normal day job

[bobbywaves]

cool story
and what american facing book would have such an arb AND accept 4000 on a regular basis?

Indeed, very cool story. And 100% true, refer to post #18. Books used in that arb were Bookmaker & 18th hole. $4,000 is nothing to them, limits are more than double that. I deal with professional books, not Mickey Mouse recreational books.

[bobbywaves]

What happens when one side wins 5 times in a row and that is real easy now your out like 20,0000 at one book , you might have to wait for money from other book to get back in action

When that happens, you find yourself with approx 19k in DSI & simply withdraw $2,500/week. Doesn't slow me down a bit. May have to cash out betpoints soon, add up fast.

[OnkelChris]

Indeed, very cool story. And 100% true, refer to post #18. Books used in that arb were Bookmaker & 18th hole. $4,000 is nothing to them, limits are more than double that. I deal with professional books, not Mickey Mouse recreational books.

[bobbywaves]

Questioning 18th? Highest limits in the industry & I've been paid. They cater to professionals.

[lecubs28]

bobbywaves, are you up or down lifetime at 18th hole? that may have something to do with how you've been treated, don't you think?

[OnkelChris]

When you google 18th hole you will recieve a lot of complaints in various forums and bobby who praises them. No offense bobby. I can well believe it that you are fine with the book. Nevertheless the descriptive statistics says there is something wrong with this place.