Nice job over the weekend....I just got in and saw that my BR was up three units 
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Any early thoughts on the upcoming CL games?
I like Gala at home against Braga (-113) and will definitely play that one and I also like Real M. at Ajax and will go BIG on them once the -1 comes available.Comment -
good luck todayComment -
Just one play today, very slow day.
#55 - 2 team parlay:
Hammarby (SWE-S) -165* vs IFK Varnamo (SWE-S)
Oster (SWE-S) -285* vs Umea FC (SWE-S)
1,50 units to win 1,75 units. *PENDING*Comment -
Oster 4-1 at HT, Hammarby still 0-0.Comment -
GooooooooalComment -
Nice one, Burk. Thanks for the cash
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Better late than never!!Comment -
Actually, you should feel fortunate. If Volga and Anzi draw, which came very close to happening, you lose 8.54 units. When you allow 1 game to dictate a 12 unit swing when you used 19 total games, you're playing into the books hands, and fighting against yourself. When you ping pong these in 3 and 4 team parlays, you are adding to the books hold rate, and also increasing variance on yourself.
You obviously like betting heavy favorites. If your picks have value, this can be a big asset to flat bet them, because you can achieve a long term profit with almost no risk. When I say flat bet, that means betting 100 to win 20 on a -500 shot, and 100 to win 16.67 on a -600 shot, not 500 to win 100 and 600 to win 100. Keep the RISK amount flat, not the win amount.
You bet 19 games in your parlays, 16 of them winning. If you had bet all 19 straight for equal amounts, you achieved a 5.16% return on your investment, and 1 game will never cause a big swing. Why add more variance to the equation? If your picks are value, then let that work for you.
If your picks have value, and you bet 1,000 + of these over the course of a year, you can achieve a 5% yield with almost no risk, as long as your'e properly rolled, which won't need to be much more than 40x of your wager amounts with high % selections. If you get up to betting $1,000 a game with 1,000 selections on the year, thats 50k profit with a 5% ROI. If your picks have that much value, variance will never drag you down too far.Comment -
What the..?
Congrats, your math is great, but can you really be telling me this ain't the way to go when I am up over 40 units on documented plays and count in the parlays before I started posting I am up almost 60 units?
And I'm not talking 10 unit average plays. Average risked is approx 2.5 units. So where is the risk in that?
I am making money hand over fist the last couple of weeks, particulary on parlays, and this is what you come up with? Tell me, what did your system made you the last couple of weeks? If you reall think betting -200 to -300 plays straight up is the way to go, good luck with that my friend. But don't come in here telling me I should do thing differently in your opinion.Comment -
Do the math and calculate the profit when I would have flat betted all plays documented. Profit won't be near what it is now.
Yes, weeks will come where variance will get me, but this started out as a project and it's working out great.
Picking games at approx -110 and flat betting them has not left me on the upside of things lately. This has.Comment -
If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, I'd be a fat sumbitch!
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Thanks for the cash
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Actually, if we just use this group as an example, what if you played 5 units on each of the 19 games you used in a flat bet? You make a profit of 4.90 units (which is more). And you don't have to sweat 1 or 2 games making all the difference.
Hey, I was just pointing out the simple fact that if your properly rolled it makes more sense to flat bet your picks because you can risk more on each high percentage play since your bankroll is subjected to less variance.
I personally don't care what you do. I was just trying to be helpful, since I've studied short term and long term effects of variance. But as soon as I read the phrase "I'm making money hand over fist the last couple of weeks", i realized you're not worth any effort. My mistake, I thought you might be a little sharper than you are. Go ahead and play 5 and 6 team parlays , and good luck.Comment -
Nobody's discounting your logic, just the manner it was applied. You're making assumptions on a very small sample size; none of us post every play we make. Not every play is a 5 or 6 team parlay, many of mine are 2 and 3 teams, which is profitable while reducing outlay. Parlays aren't our only plays. Speaking for myself, I don't doubt your intention to offer sound advice, it just came across as heavy handed, and was unsolicited by the way. Stating "you're not worth the effort" well, our loss I guess.
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thanks for the plays againComment -
Winner - InThread Record 2-1 +2.78u
Burk congrats on another winner.... I say go with what your capping or gut tells you....Personally I feel more strongly about some plays than others, hence my variation on the amount I bet....This play today I didn't feel as comfortable so I pulled back a little....Personally bet .5 u to 1.5 u roughly on my average plays...And I even go stronger - I'll bet 2,3,4,5 units maybe even more if I feel that good about it...It's definitely not as common for me to go larger but I will....I know there is variation but every game is different....Just because Team A is -120 one day, and Team B is -120 the same day...I might like both of these plays...But might only put .5u on team A, and Heck I might toss a few units on team B just because I like the play alot. To each their own I guess....Most important thing here is that we all help each other win units.
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Tuesday play....Was going to do 1.5u but I hate brafix.....Told myself I was going to shy away from the BRA leagues....If this gets me I will be done with them and not even look at them anymore....
Sao Caetano (BRA-B) -239*vs Guaratingueta
Swindon (ENG-One) -169* vs Colchester
Risking 1 to win 1.26
Inthread Record 2-1 +2.78uComment -
Moving on;
#56 - 3 team parlay:
Juventus (UCL) -170* vs Shakhtar Donetsk (UCL)
Valencia (UCL) -145* vs Lille (UCL)
Barcelona (UCL) -170* vs Benfica (UCL)
1,50 units to win 4,89 units. *PENDING*
Risky bet, but I'm not really liking other plays tonight out of the CL games to put into a parlay.Comment -
haha looks like we post a lot of our plays around the same time....In the middle of the night here EST...Comment -
Nobody's discounting your logic, just the manner it was applied. You're making assumptions on a very small sample size; none of us post every play we make. Not every play is a 5 or 6 team parlay, many of mine are 2 and 3 teams, which is profitable while reducing outlay. Parlays aren't the only plays we make. Speaking for myself, I don't doubt your intention to offer sound advice, it just came across as heavy handed, and was unsolicited by the way. Stating "you're not worth the effort" well, our loss I guess.
Winner - InThread Record 2-1 +2.78u
Burk congrats on another winner.... I say go with what your capping or gut tells you....Personally I feel more strongly about some plays than others, hence my variation on the amount I bet....This play today I didn't feel as comfortable so I pulled back a little....Personally bet .5 u to 1.5 u roughly on my average plays...And I even go stronger - I'll bet 2,3,4,5 units maybe even more if I feel that good about it...It's definitely not as common for me to go larger but I will....I know there is variation but every game is different....Just because Team A is -120 one day, and Team B is -120 the same day...I might like both of these plays...But might only put .5u on team A, and Heck I might toss a few units on team B just because I like the play alot. To each their own I guess....Most important thing here is that we all help each other win units.
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Wow, middle of the night for me 1:15 am...I'm in New York State.Comment -
I wish I would! It's been too long since I've been in NY!Comment -
True!Comment -
Going to follow this thread, looks great mate!Comment -
Indio, I calculated every play I made in this thread (including the not documented, see post #1) so far as if I had bet them as single bets (no parlays), with a 2 units bet (TO WIN 2 units, not the RISK amount) for all. After all, I'm an accountant....
If I had betted them all as singles, to win 2 units each like I said, I would have made a profit of 99,66 units. The profit on parlays as at today (undocumented and documented in this thread) amounts to approx 57 units. BUT, it is hard to compare since the wager amount on the parlays varies from 1 to 5 units risked.
This got me thinking ofcourse, since everyone in here wants to make the highest possible profit.. with the least risk possible.
Why would you favor flat betting the RISK amount instead of flat betting the WIN amount? I understand that heavy favorites (like Barca -980 against Granada, with a 88th minute win) can drag you down a bit. But after all, I would have been up almost 100 units in like 3 weeks...Comment -
Single betting those 19 games, TO WIN 2 units each, would have made a profit of 11,44 units. Just to compare the RISK and TO WIN possibilities.
I would have risked the staggering amount of 127 units though to win 38.. In comparison with 15 units risked on the parlays, to win 20,82 units.
If I have a bad day, I could only lose 15 units max on parlays... On a bad day (50/50 win/loss) with the single bets (TO WIN 2 units) it would cost me roughly 44 units (19 x 0,5 x 2 units profit minus 127 x 0,5 loss(depending on which team doesn't win and how big they were favored)). On an average day (67/33) it would cost me approx 16,5 units.
Input welcome.Comment
