Euro 2012

[Dark Horse]

Hard to believe it's almost that time again. Four years have passed since: .

Group A: Poland, Greece, Russia, Czech Rep
Group B: Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Portugal
Group C: Spain, Italy, Ireland, Croatia
Group D: Ukraine, Sweden, France, England

All the usual suspects in there. Let's discuss in the month ahead, and come up with some power rankings. A first glance:

Top 3:
Netherlands
Germany
Spain

Bottom 3:
Poland
Ireland
Greece

My pretournament favorites are Holland and Germany. They're in the group of death, so will have to see if both make it out of round one.

[BigBurk]

I'm from Holland, but I don't really have a good feeling this time around. Everyone is expecting so much out of them (as from Germany and Spain like you say) but I don't think they will deliver this year.

If they make it out of round 1, which will going to be a hell of a job, I see them reaching semi finals max. But, like I said, that ******* group....

[Wordsworth]

Denmark are also at risk in settling among the bottom 3. Not because Denmark is a particularly bad team, but because of the teams they will face, have world class players on every position.

The grouping is kinda odd, considering Denmark won their group and still got blemished with a poor seeding. Not a Denmark hater. Just saying that UEFA coefficients have little merit in comparisson to current form.

I'd put my money on either Germany or Italy, and maybe Holland as a dark horse.

[BigBurk]

Italy? Really?

I understand you mention Germany, and maybe Holland, but I would never scale the Italians as favorites. Probably a quarter or semi final exit against teams like the two already mentioned or Spain.

[Punter101]

Italy? Really?

I understand you mention Germany, and maybe Holland, but I would never scale the Italians as favorites. Probably a quarter or semi final exit against teams like the two already mentioned or Spain.

Italy could pull it through as dark horses, supporting Holland since 06 WC so i hope they win it but my dark horse would have to be France

[gregm]

I personally wouldnt put Poland as co -hosts in the bottom of any sort of power rankings, I think they have a real good chance moving beyond the first stage in that weak group. The Czechs have the best goal keeper in Petr Cech in that group ,they are an older team but probably that experience will help them and Greece is just plain old. Russia has looked very good in qualifying .

Hosts usually make it past the first group stage but it could be like 2008 with Austria and Switzerland. I would take Poland to advance here.

There are always alot of strange teams that make it, Russia and Turkey made it to the semifinals in 2008, Greece won it in 2004 and the Czechs made it to the semifinals that year. My dark horse might be Croatia with Modric but I just don't see many upsets in that first group stage

These are pretty square picks for the groups stage but I just dont see many upsets, maybe Portugal with Ronaldo and Nani and Pepe over the Netherlands and robben and van Persie or maybe Croatia over Italy.

Group A Poland and Russia to advance ( May be great value on Poland here but Czech Republic may advance here with russia) This is really an awful group, nothing would surprise me here.

Group B Germany and Portugal to advance

Group C Spain and Italy to advance. ( Croatia dark horse) Italy will be great with totals and unders and Italy really didnt impress me in qualifying. I love that Dinamo zagreb team and Croatian league football and they should give Italy a tough time. Italy may be too strong though, they certainly have the money and the record in euro competition behind them.

Group D England and France to advance. Who knows, even Ukraine and Sweden might have an outside shot here, England always disappoints and I am not buying the hype here on France making a run but who knows, they have talent with Ribery, Nasri and Benzema. Nothing will surprise me after Greece won it all in 2004

Germany to win Euro 2012


They supposedly have a new psychic octopus that did so well in the world cup or at a least cousin of Paul the octopus.

http://www.theportugalnews.com/cgi-bin/article.pl?id=1158-34

[BigBurk]

I think Sweden may cause a major upset in group D, as I am not thrilled by both England and France. England always seems to disappoint on big tourneys (now even without Rooney during the group stage) while France has been horrific lately. They shouldn't even be participating if it wasn't for the late equalizer against Bosnia (yes, I know they would have been playing play-offs in that case but whatevs).

All eyes on group B though during the first couple of games. Don't forget; Denmark ended #1 in a qualification group with Portugal.

[zizoudane10]

1. Germany 30%
2. Spain 25%
3. Holland 15%
4. France 10%
Rest: 20% (England, Portugal, Italy)

[Pat McCrotch]

Really fancy Germany to win it, just look how well there players are performing all over europe!!!!

[pellumb341]

England NOT to advance !!!

[pellumb341]

Group A : Poland and Russia to advance (most of matches will be Draw)
Group B : Germany and Holland
Group C : Spain and Italy (Croatia)
Group D : France and Ukraine

[pellumb341]

Champion :

Holland and Germany 35 %
Spain 30 %
Rest : (England ,France,Italy,Portugal) 0%

[Shredder]

I think England and the Netherlands fail to qualify and Poland will def qualify. Germany/Spain best chance, don't really see any other team take it.

[BigBurk]

Come on bro, a little love for the Netherlands!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Keep an eye on Italy guys.

We have to forget about Euro 2008 (Prandelli >>>>> Donadoni) and SAF 2010 (it was the same group that won the WC in Germany, no further ambitions).
This is a young squad with lack of talent on offense but also 2010 team was...
And like in 2010 big scandals in Italy so don't give them small credit because when they're underdog they perform extremely well.

The best upset to me could be Spain not to qualify or out of the Top4.

[gregm]

Some interesting picks here, I cant wait until this starts. Most league play coming to an end, Champions league a while away. we are lucky this is going on this year. I just dont see how England underperforms this year with the talent they have, but maybe they will find a way to lose early. France has talent but will they play together well, this is what Germany always does. I really like Germany and that Spain upset pick is pretty bold but nothing would surprise me after this weeks showings from Spainish teams.

[BigTimeWinner]

Spain will win it again

[BigBurk]

Has that ever been done before? Winning the Euro Championship twice in a row plus the World Cup in between?

Will David Villa be fit on time for the EC by the way? If not Spain will be lacking a good striker...

[BigTimeWinner]

Has that ever been done before? Winning the Euro Championship twice in a row plus the World Cup in between?

Will David Villa be fit on time for the EC by the way? If not Spain will be lacking a good striker...

I'm not sure , Spain will do it this time though, if it hasn't been done before

[rentongfb]

I think Croatia is going to be the surprise of this tournament. Wish Turkey was here too, we were the team of the last tournament

[rentongfb]

Has that ever been done before? Winning the Euro Championship twice in a row plus the World Cup in between?

Will David Villa be fit on time for the EC by the way? If not Spain will be lacking a good striker...

how about Athletic Bilbao's striker?

[Wotton]

Some interesting picks here, I cant wait until this starts. Most league play coming to an end, Champions league a while away. we are lucky this is going on this year. I just dont see how England underperforms this year with the talent they have, but maybe they will find a way to lose early. France has talent but will they play together well, this is what Germany always does. I really like Germany and that Spain upset pick is pretty bold but nothing would surprise me after this weeks showings from Spainish teams.

We're quite mediocre actually. Nasri has failed time and again to become a very good 10 and Laurent Blanc who had been grooming Gourcuff for several years (who has had a very very weak couple of years) is without option for that role which is essential to his preferential tactical system. Ribery is not himself when he plays for the national team. At first Blanc tried to make Mexes and Rami play together all the time in central defense but then because Mexes got hurt, he hasn't been able to solidify that part. Benzema is about the only difference maker. Remy has played too much this year and will probably be burnt out come June (he is a little already). Blanc tries to make the French team play a very possession oriented game but we lack the talent in the midfield for it.
I'll be surprised if we make it to the semis to be honest...

[BigBurk]

how about Athletic Bilbao's striker?

That's about their only decent option.

[Wordsworth]

Italy? Really?

I understand you mention Germany, and maybe Holland, but I would never scale the Italians as favorites. Probably a quarter or semi final exit against teams like the two already mentioned or Spain.

Italy often sports great tournament teams who can win the last match in any international tournament, just like Germany and also recently Spain, and once upon a time France when they played like a coherent group and not like a bunch of inner city gang bangers.

It's not going to be the team with most superstars that is going to win, but the team with quality players who still have mileage in their legs... Italy and Germany have a massive tier 2 player base of notable but not larger-than-life-international-superstars. But they haven't had to play twice or trice a week for nearly a year because they, aside from Napoli, where knocked out fairly early in continental tournaments and at the same time don't have to play both league and 2-3 different cup matches like the teams who have many players in for example England.

This will come in favor of Italy and Germany and stands in contrast to Spain whose two main suppliers are also coming of a tough season with lots of intense and consequential games. Spain would on paper have been my favorites, but I'm expecting a drop in form from their side during the summer months. Therefore my tip of the hat goes to Italy and Germany.

Holland will always be quality contenders.. Which they have been for over 22 years now. But they haven't walked the line completely unlike Italy and Germany

[gregm]

We're quite mediocre actually. Nasri has failed time and again to become a very good 10 and Laurent Blanc who had been grooming Gourcuff for several years (who has had a very very weak couple of years) is without option for that role which is essential to his preferential tactical system. Ribery is not himself when he plays for the national team. At first Blanc tried to make Mexes and Rami play together all the time in central defense but then because Mexes got hurt, he hasn't been able to solidify that part. Benzema is about the only difference maker. Remy has played too much this year and will probably be burnt out come June (he is a little already). Blanc tries to make the French team play a very possession oriented game but we lack the talent in the midfield for it.
I'll be surprised if we make it to the semis to be honest...

Good post. I am glad to hear from someone who knows this national team. I have been seeing France as a dark horse pick to actually win it all and I just dont understand why people think that. Thanks for posting, I probably will be looking to fade France at some point here, I wish they were in Group B or C, they have a pretty easy group stage here.

[Nova99]

My group stage dark horses: Poland and Sweden.

Poland has a lot of good players playing regularly around the top leagues in Europe, add in home advantage and I think they can make a splash. Winnable group, we should get nice odds for their games.

Sweden seems to always get drawn with England in major tourneys and somehow they seem to survive, cant say I know much about the national team but I know Guidetti is red hot in the Dutch league and Zalatan is quality, they will be trouble to the opponents.

France is my enigma of the tourney, they have quality players but can they get it together and win some games or implode in the first round??

Looked it up - no one has ever won the European Championship in consecutive editions.

Adding a note - next euros will expand to 24 teams so this may be the last true great tourney where you see really great matchups in the group stages.

[Dark Horse]

Here's the way the books see it. Disagreements with this view could be profitable. Will post my power rankings closer to the tournament. At a first glance I see plenty of disagreement with the books breakdown; starting with England, which is always overbet, because the English public bets on their team, legally, and every time thinks they can truly win it all. Best consistent fade from tournament to tournament.

Spain
Germany
Netherlands
England
France
Italy
Portugal
Russia
Ukraine
Croatia
Poland
Czech Republic
Sweden
Greece
Ireland
Denmark

Teams that go deep into a tournament have a strong team concept. Star players without team concept have little added value (England's Rooneys and Beckhams! ), but star players on top of team concept add the extra that can make all the difference. So my first step, which will take a while, is to grade the teams by team concept. Italy's team concept is always quite strong; and not that hard to execute. Defensive soccer is easier than offensive soccer, so they're always a contender. Italy tends to have a tough time against bad teams (once again in the last World Cup), when they're expected to dominate. But against the world's top they're fine. Spain has changed styles to the Dutch school (as Germany, to a lesser extent), and immediately won two tournaments. Meanwhile, the Dutch themselves have shifted towards a more defensive minded style, and immediately became more consistent, as in harder to beat on a bad day. Teams without much talent but with strong team concept can go deep. Remember Greece, a dwarf nation in soccer, winning it all in 2004.

[BigBurk]

Greece, 2004.

[Dark Horse]

Got it. Thanks.

[Dark Horse]

I think I'm going with:

Holland
Germany
Spain
Italy
Ukraine
Portugal
Russia
France
England
Poland
Czech Rep.
Sweden
Croatia
Ireland
Greece
Denmark

[Nova99]

Why is Ukraine so high on ur list?

Have to put a question mark on Italy, the recent scandals have hit their squad pretty hard. The same happened in 2006 but I dont think it was this close to the tourney and i dont think there were players on that team being kicked off due to it. Lets see if they thrive on it or implode.

[Gndias]

Cesare Prandelli has stated that he would understand if Italy were to withdraw from Euro 2012 for the good of the game in the country, in the wake of the Scommessopoli scandal that has disrupted preparations for this summer's tournament.

[Dark Horse]

Why is Ukraine so high on ur list?

Have to put a question mark on Italy, the recent scandals have hit their squad pretty hard. The same happened in 2006 but I dont think it was this close to the tourney and i dont think there were players on that team being kicked off due to it. Lets see if they thrive on it or implode.

Italy is an unusual story, obviously. A lot of people expect Italy to kind of roll over now, but why wouldn't they embrace an 'us-against-the-world' attitude? This is not France 2010 with internal troubles. They play a relatively simple style of soccer, where players can easily be replaced by others. They're always hard to beat in big tournaments, and I don't see Ireland or Croatia get past them into the second round.

And I'm giving Ukraine a bigger home field advantage than the books. This is the biggest sports event that ever happened to the country, and I like their soccer culture.

[NetworkCash]

i think the winner of the EURO will not be Spain !!

[snip3r2006]

SPAIN
.
.
.
Holland
Germany


Italy to bust out in group stage !!!