BigBurk's soccer thread

[BigBurk]

Sunday:

SC Heracles (HOL-E) -113* vs RKC Waalwick (HOL-E) (1x)

Hoffenheim (GER-1)/Freiburg (GER-1) Over 2½ -113* (1x)

Malaga (ESP-P) -1 -123* vs Real Sociedad (ESP-P) (1x)

Like I said, 0-3 today completing a terrible weekend! -3.49x today.

YTD 7-6-1 = +0.69x

[BigBurk]

Last play of the weekend:

Paris SG (FRA-1) / Auxerre (FRA-1) Over 2.5 -104 (1x)

With Montpellier losing today I expect PSG to go full throttle against Auxerre. Let's hope we can close the weekend with a win.

[vangend]

Last play of the weekend:

Paris SG (FRA-1) / Auxerre (FRA-1) Over 2.5 -104 (1x)

With Montpellier losing today I expect PSG to go full throttle against Auxerre. Let's hope we can close the weekend with a win.

Just got the bet in @ 2.50 about a minute before they scored the first goal, hope the get two more.

[BigBurk]

Yeah, we can use some luck.

[BigBurk]

Yeah, we can use some luck.

Luck is not on our side this weekend! Lost the PSG play. Starting fresh on a new week, and the beauty is that after a bad spell always comes a nice streak. Hope this starts tomorrow!

YTD 7-7-1 = -0.35x

[BigBurk]

What does everybody think of Arsenal - Wigan tonight? Lines are Arsenal -1½ and o/u 3 goals.

[Shredder]

What are the lines?

[BigBurk]

-1½ -136 and +1½ +116
o3 -120 and u3 +105

[Shredder]

I suppose you are leaning towards +1.5 Wigan? Otherwise I really see no value in this play. I really don't like this game considering the lines. Wigan being at a good streak trying hard to stay above the relegation spots and playing pretty solid from what I have seen. They only lost 2 games the last 8 playing some decent to good teams like liverpool and chelsea away and last week the surprising deserved win versus Man U. They kept all of their last 8 games below 4 and losing only 2 games, making a +1.5 look tempting. However Arsenal is playing really well and have the much better squad. In the last games they missed quite a lot of changes. They have been doing very well scoring wise versus lower ranked teams at home in 2012. If van Persie and friends have a bit of luck I easily see them score a bunch but considering the line -1.5 I wouldn't play it.

Sorry that I can't help you more with this one, it's just one of those form off the day games. 4-0 or 3-1 wouldn't surprise me but 2-0 or 2-1 neither. If I had to chose it would be Arsenal -1.5 but I just don't like the line for that.

[BigBurk]

I suppose you are leaning towards +1.5 Wigan? Otherwise I really see no value in this play. I really don't like this game considering the lines. Wigan being at a good streak trying hard to stay above the relegation spots and playing pretty solid from what I have seen. They only lost 2 games the last 8 playing some decent to good teams like liverpool and chelsea away and last week the surprising deserved win versus Man U. They kept all of their last 8 games below 4 and losing only 2 games, making a +1.5 look tempting. However Arsenal is playing really well and have the much better squad. In the last games they missed quite a lot of changes. They have been doing very well scoring wise versus lower ranked teams at home in 2012. If van Persie and friends have a bit of luck I easily see them score a bunch but considering the line -1.5 I wouldn't play it.

Sorry that I can't help you more with this one, it's just one of those form off the day games. 4-0 or 3-1 wouldn't surprise me but 2-0 or 2-1 neither. If I had to chose it would be Arsenal -1.5 but I just don't like the line for that.

Well, you basically summed up my own thoughts on this one. There is absolutely no value in Arsenal 1½ in my opinion also. Glad to see we are agreeing on this being a no play!

[Shredder]

You got anything for today? Plan to tail you when you strike back and start up the week with some profits again!

[BigBurk]

Nope, nothing today that I like! Looking into tomorrows card already, Bayern - Real match especially.

[BigBurk]

Good call to stay away from Arsenal. Over bettors are sitting on roses early on.

[BigBurk]

Champions League:

Bayern Munchen (UCL) pk -109* vs Real Madrid (UCL) (1x)

Barcelona (UCL)/Chelsea (UCL) Over 2½ -122* (1x)

[BigBurk]

Champions League:

Bayern Munchen (UCL) pk -109* vs Real Madrid (UCL) (1x)

1-0 today, on to tomorrow!

YTD 8-7-1 = +0.65x

[BigBurk]

Early locked in plays:

Friday:

Roda JC (HOL-E)/NAC Breda (HOL-E) Under 3,3½ -131* (1x)

As I have said on a previous wager, I pay a little more juice sometimes than I ought to but I think the bookies are way off on this one. I have this game set at 1-1, giving some nice value on playing the under.

Saturday:

De Graafschap (HOL-E) +½ -107* vs SC Heracles (HOL-E) (1x)

After my mistake not to take De Graafschap as home dogs last week against Utrecht, I am not taking any chances this time before the line starts moving and I miss out on some value on this one. Even though they have lost 7 out of their last 8 home matches I give them the edge over Heracles (having lost 6 out of their last 8 away matches) with De Graafschap actually playing close to decent soccer lately. I have this game set at 2-1 in favor of De Graafschap, so the extra half point is very welcome.

[Shredder]

I wonder what approach De Graafschap will take on this game. With 4 to play they have no chance of avoiding up and down games and are just one point ahead of last place Excelsior which they receive in two games at home. They also have a pretty "easy" schedule compared to Excelsior. You think they will go all attack or just play normal and if it turns out like a draw will take it.

BTW you play Greece games? Full schedule tonight, wondering if you have any thoughts.

BOL

[BigBurk]

I wonder what approach De Graafschap will take on this game. With 4 to play they have no chance of avoiding up and down games and are just one point ahead of last place Excelsior which they receive in two games at home. They also have a pretty "easy" schedule compared to Excelsior. You think they will go all attack or just play normal and if it turns out like a draw will take it.

I think they will take the draw when they are still levelled after like 60-70 minutes. Excelsior will probably lose against Twente so at least they win a point. Plus like you already mentioned, they still have to play Excelsior at home. Therefore I'm very happy to take the half point just in case they will settle for the draw.

BTW you play Greece games? Full schedule tonight, wondering if you have any thoughts.

Unfortunately not! I couldn't even name more than 3 Greek teams out of the top of my head right now so I'm not very usefull. Best of luck to you too!

[BigBurk]

Barca should atleast have scored one in order to keep the over alive. Too bad Alexis and Fabregas didn't score.

[BigBurk]

Sometimes you need to bitch a bit to get work done.

[BigBurk]

Even though the over did not hit I feel good about the play I made. The over should have been golden if Barca would have been a bit more sharp in front of the goal. The last touch just wasn't there today! Happens!

[BigBurk]

YTD 8-8-1 = -0.57x

[BigBurk]

Thursday:

Sporting Lisboa (UEFA-Europa) pk -120* vs Athletic Bilbao (UEFA-Europa) (1.5x)

Even though Athletic has had some great results at Man Utd (2-3) and Schalke (2-4) I do not see them repeating this tonight at Sporting. In this years Europa League stages Sporting has won every home fixture and only conceded three goals in 8 fixtures. Athletic has been horrific in away matches in the Primera Division this calender year, having only won 1 out of 6 matches (at Rayo Vallecano) whilst they conceded a minimum of two goals in every one of them. Also in the Europa League they have conceded 11 goals in only 6 away matches.

I have this game set at a 2-1 home victory, and given Sportings home results this year I'm playing this 1.5x.

Good luck!

[Shredder]

Funny, I was gonna bet Athletic Good luck! (Unless I will bet then I hope you lose ;p)

[BigBurk]

Funny, I was gonna bet Athletic Good luck! (Unless I will bet then I hope you lose ;p)

Hehe, I thought I read that EaglesPhan also leaned Athletic. But even without doing some research my initial lean was Sporting though. Let me know what you decide to play!

[Shredder]

For me, just like in CL, the two favorites are playing away in the first game. So it is likely I don't bet it. But out of the two games I like Bilbao the most. Although I hope that Dutch guy will do good for sporting ;p The overs in both games have pretty good odds.

[BigBurk]

You think? I think Sporting and Atletico have better chances of reaching the final than Bilbao and Valencia.

We'll see what happens tonight.

[NotSammySosa]

I like over in the Atletico/Sporting game. either Atletico scores or they concede trying to score goals. either way both teams should find themselves on the scoresheet. Contemplating wether to go over 3 @ +191 or over 2.5 @ +106

[BigBurk]

I like over in the Atletico/Sporting game. either Atletico scores or they concede trying to score goals. either way both teams should find themselves on the scoresheet. Contemplating wether to go over 3 @ +191 or over 2.5 @ +106

Don't reach too much bro, +106 is a great price for an over on 2.5 goals. It's not without reason that the bookies are offering +106 on 2.5........

[NotSammySosa]

I'll stick with 2.5 but I know I'm gonna kick myself when they end up scoring 4 goals.
How about the Valencia/ A Madrid game? total of 2 goals in 2 games against each other this season

[BigBurk]

I'm sure you will! But it's all about value. When they end up scoring three atleast you have made some money instead of the push... 4 goals is a lot in this matchup imo.

Are you trying to say you are leaning the under on the Atletico Valencia matchup?

[NotSammySosa]

I'm sure you will! But it's all about value. When they end up scoring three atleast you have made some money instead of the push... 4 goals is a lot in this matchup imo.

Are you trying to say you are leaning the under on the Atletico Valencia matchup?

leaning that way and I just might play a 1-1 scoreline.

[BigBurk]

Well the odds on scorelines are great so you'd be nailing a great price if it hits! Good luck!

[BigBurk]

Thursday:

Sporting Lisboa (UEFA-Europa) pk -120* vs Athletic Bilbao (UEFA-Europa) (1.5x)

Even though Athletic has had some great results at Man Utd (2-3) and Schalke (2-4) I do not see them repeating this tonight at Sporting. In this years Europa League stages Sporting has won every home fixture and only conceded three goals in 8 fixtures. Athletic has been horrific in away matches in the Primera Division this calender year, having only won 1 out of 6 matches (at Rayo Vallecano) whilst they conceded a minimum of two goals in every one of them. Also in the Europa League they have conceded 11 goals in only 6 away matches.

I have this game set at a 2-1 home victory, and given Sportings home results this year I'm playing this 1.5x.

Good luck!

A late comeback to secure the Sporting win yesterday. +1.5 units.

YTD 9-8-1 = +0.93x

[BigBurk]

Early locked in plays:

Friday:

Roda JC (HOL-E)/NAC Breda (HOL-E) Under 3,3½ -131* (1x)

As I have said on a previous wager, I pay a little more juice sometimes than I ought to but I think the bookies are way off on this one. I have this game set at 1-1, giving some nice value on playing the under.

This will probably be tonight's only play. Good luck.