BigBurk's soccer thread

BigBurk · 04-20-12, 12:34 AM

Originally posted by NotSammySosa

I'll stick with 2.5 but I know I'm gonna kick myself when they end up scoring 4 goals.

NotSammySosa · 04-20-12, 02:07 AM

Originally posted by BigBurk

Looks like that worked out

Other game had more goals than expected.
at least it was a profitable day with the yellow card bets

BigBurk · 04-21-12, 03:24 AM

Originally posted by BigBurk

Friday:

Roda JC (HOL-E)/NAC Breda (HOL-E) Under 3,3½ -131* (1x)

This one was a real ball buster yesterday. Unitil the 60th minute the match was scoreless, but with luck not being on our side turned out into a 0-3 Roda victory. A 90th minute goal cost us the full win.

1-0, +0.5x.

BigBurk · 04-21-12, 04:12 AM

YTD 10-8-1 = +1.43x

NotSammySosa · 04-21-12, 04:23 AM

Burk. You think over 1 or 1.5 (1H) is a safe play for most games in the Bundesliga?
Im thinking most teams tend not to play defense in the final games since their spots in the standings are known.

BigBurk · 04-21-12, 05:46 AM

Yeah, you gotta be careful though for the teams that dó have something to play for. Other than that, I think we will see more high scoring games than normal in the last couple of rounds.

BigBurk · 04-21-12, 05:48 AM

Saturday:

Newcastle (ENG-P) -½,-1 -110* vs Stoke (ENG-P) (1x)

QPR (ENG-P) +½ -110* vs Tottenham (ENG-P) (1x)

Sporting Gijon (ESP-P) pk,-½ -107* vs Rayo Vallecano (ESP-P) (1x)

De Graafschap (HOL-E) +½ -107* vs SC Heracles (HOL-E) (1x)

Shredder · 04-21-12, 05:50 AM

BOL this weekend!

BigBurk · 04-21-12, 06:08 AM

Thanks Shredder! Same to you!

BigBurk · 04-21-12, 07:11 AM

Originally posted by BigBurk

Saturday:

Newcastle (ENG-P) -½,-1 -110* vs Stoke (ENG-P) (1x)

Newcastle has been in terrific form lately since Cissé has joined them. Five straight wins in the League, and not one loss in their last 9 home fixtures. Stoke on the other hand has been struggling as of late. Out of their last 8 away games they have only been able to win one, whilst they lost four. With the addition of Cissé I expect this to be a fairly easy win for Newcastle, I have this game set at 2-0 and therefore rolling with the Magpies.

QPR (ENG-P) +½ -110* vs Tottenham (ENG-P) (1x)

This is an excellent value bet with QPR getting the half point over Tottenham tonight. QPR has won three straight home games (vs. Arsenal, Liverpool and Swansea) which got them out of the relegation zone. They still have everything to play for with Bolton and Blackburn right behind them and both also playing at home this weekend. With Tottenham not having won a single away match in their last 7 tries, I am rolling with the hot QPR squad. I have this game set at a 1-0 QPR victory.

Sporting Gijon (ESP-P) pk,-½ -107* vs Rayo Vallecano (ESP-P) (1x)

Both these teams are in a tough spot at the moment, with Gijon almost certain of relegation this year. Vallecano is sitting quite safe with 40 points on a 14th place but have not been able to impress lately. Besides of their 6-0 home win versus Osasuna they have lost 4 out of their last 5 overall and 4 out of their 4 last away fixtures. Even with Gijon in a bad spot I have this one set at a 3-1 Gijon win.

De Graafschap (HOL-E) +½ -107* vs SC Heracles (HOL-E) (1x)

After my mistake not to take De Graafschap as home dogs last week against Utrecht, I am not taking any chances this time before the line starts moving and I miss out on some value on this one. Even though they have lost 7 out of their last 8 home matches I give them the edge over Heracles (having lost 6 out of their last 8 away matches) with De Graafschap actually playing close to decent soccer lately. I have this game set at 2-1 in favor of De Graafschap, so the extra half point is very welcome.

Updated the picks above.

NotSammySosa · 04-21-12, 08:19 AM

like the EPL picks

BigBurk · 04-21-12, 01:33 PM

3-0 on todays games. De Graafschap match is at half time, with them trailing 1-2. Hope they can equalize in the 2nd half!

BigBurk · 04-21-12, 02:57 PM

3-1, too bad De Graafschap could nog get the equalizer in against 9 man of Heracles. +1.93x on the day.

swordsandtequila · 04-21-12, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by BigBurk

Saturday:

Newcastle (ENG-P) -½,-1 -110* vs Stoke (ENG-P) (1x)

QPR (ENG-P) +½ -110* vs Tottenham (ENG-P) (1x)

Sporting Gijon (ESP-P) pk,-½ -107* vs Rayo Vallecano (ESP-P) (1x)

De Graafschap (HOL-E) +½ -107* vs SC Heracles (HOL-E) (1x)

Already had Newcastle, tailed you on QPR (took AH pk,+½ +121). Good call on your part. Cheers!

Shredder · 04-21-12, 03:08 PM

Nice job, good wekend so far! Keep it up tomorrow ;d

BigBurk · 04-21-12, 04:28 PM

Yeah I can't complain today! Not really liking tomorrows card so probably won't have many plays.

YTD 13-9-1 = +3.36x

BigBurk · 04-22-12, 04:57 AM

Sunday:

Hannover (GER-1) -½ -112* vs Freiburg (GER-1) (1x)

I was kind of surprised to see that Hannover was only -½ against Freiburg today. Even though Freiburg has been on a great run lately (they haven't lost in 8 matches), I still think Hannover at home is a bridge too far for them. Hannover has not lost a single home fixture this season and will want to keep the pressure on Stuttgart and Leverkusen. I have this game set at 3-1 in favor of Hannover and am therefore rolling with them today.

That's it for today!

BigBurk · 04-22-12, 05:02 AM

I'm pissed at myself by the way for waiting too long on taking ADO against Feyenoord today (starts in 30 minutes). Now that Guidetti is out the line has gone to +1 -166 (!!) on the home playing ADO. Should have locked this in earlier this week when Guidetti was doubtfull and the line was still around -120.

Great price on Feyenoord though for those who are willing to take the shot; ML -116, -1 +151.

swordsandtequila · 04-22-12, 05:45 AM

Originally posted by BigBurk

Sunday:

Hannover (GER-1) -½ -112* vs Freiburg (GER-1) (1x)

I was kind of surprised to see that Hannover was only -½ against Freiburg today. Even though Freiburg has been on a great run lately (they haven't lost in 8 matches), I still think Hannover at home is a bridge too far for them. Hannover has not lost a single home fixture this season and will want to keep the pressure on Stuttgart and Leverkusen. I have this game set at 3-1 in favor of Hannover and am therefore rolling with them today.
That's it for today!

Hey Burk, why not roll with the ML in this match? 5Ds has -½ -110, ML -107. Less juice is always good, unless I'm missing something? I took Schalke pk, -½ -107 last night, down to -104 now. Think they'll bounce back after b2b losses.

Good luck today

BigBurk · 04-22-12, 05:54 AM

Originally posted by swordsandtequila

Hey Burk, why not roll with the ML in this match? 5Ds has -½ -110, ML -107. Less juice is always good, unless I'm missing something? I took Schalke pk, -½ -107 last night, down to -104 now. Think they'll bounce back after b2b losses.

Good luck today

I locked this play in before today, when the ML had more juice than the spread. Still a strange thing though, different juice on similar plays.....

swordsandtequila · 04-22-12, 06:01 AM

Yeah, I notice 5Ds does that sometimes, and I never understand it. Would be better option with asian handicap; -½ no different than ML to win. Doesn't matter as long as we bank!

BigBurk · 04-22-12, 06:28 AM

Live bet:

Feyenoord ML +100 vs ADO Den Haag (1x)

BigBurk · 04-22-12, 06:34 AM

Wow.. just in time, 30 secs in the 2nd half, 0-1 Feyenoord.

BigBurk · 04-22-12, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by BigBurk

Live bet:

Feyenoord ML +100 vs ADO Den Haag (1x)

Winner. As I was watching the game it was obvious Feyenoord would take this one. Glad I put in my wager just in time before they opened the score.

BigBurk · 04-23-12, 12:21 AM

Wasn't able to follow the Hannover match yesterday, but to my surprise they drew 0-0 against Freiburg. 1-1 yesterday, with a small loss of juice.

YTD 14-10-1 = +3.24x

BigBurk · 04-23-12, 01:44 AM

Monday:

Osasuna (ESP-P) pk +116* vs Malaga (ESP-P) (1x)

Write up later today.

Shredder · 04-23-12, 04:54 AM

Originally posted by BigBurk

Monday:

Osasuna (ESP-P) pk +116* vs Malaga (ESP-P) (1x)

Write up later today.

Was just looking into it and thought about going straight up Osasuna, so I like your pick ;p gl

BigBurk · 04-23-12, 09:29 AM

Originally posted by Shredder

Was just looking into it and thought about going straight up Osasuna, so I like your pick ;p gl

Thanks! Busy day today so probably don't have time for a write up but I'm feeling pretty good about this one!

true blue 26 · 04-23-12, 10:51 AM

looks like both teams have to win so they can play on the euro league/cl next year. do you also like over 2.5 in this one?

BigBurk · 04-23-12, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by true blue 26

looks like both teams have to win so they can play on the euro league/cl next year. do you also like over 2.5 in this one?

I rarely bet on totals on Spanish and Italian matches... Too much games which get stuck on only 2 goals.

BigBurk · 04-23-12, 12:56 PM

Varese (ITA-B) -1 +106* vs Grosseto (ITA-B) (1x)

Varese still has a playoff spot to battle for, whilst Grosseto seems safe from the bottom regions. This is mostly a value play, as this is a great price imo for this matchup. I just don't see this one ending a draw, so it's either push or win.......

Shredder · 04-23-12, 01:08 PM

Looks pretty solid, gl!

BigBurk · 04-23-12, 03:09 PM

I'm hoping the gambling gods show a bit of mercy and let me at least push the Varese match..

BigBurk · 04-23-12, 03:29 PM

Crash and burn! That's the risk of betting on the lower leagues!

BigBurk · 04-24-12, 12:23 AM

0-1-1 yesterday, -1 unit.

YTD 14-11-1 = +2.24x