BigBurk's soccer thread

[BigBurk]

seems like there's a match everyday for the next 2 weeks including the manchester derby tomorrow. plenty of time to make some $$$.

You are totally right. Plus we are learning as we go. Feel bad about some losses (Roda, Newcastle, the totals), while although they lost I feel good about some others like Espanyol and AZ.

Still time enough like you said to end in black this season (don't forget the Euro 2012) and start the new season booming with what we have learned meanwhile.

You have a lean on the Utd - City game? I haven't looked at the line yet by the way.

[BigBurk]

Hmm I just heard something interesting about the last two league rounds in Holland. If Heerenveen does not lose at Twente this wednesday, and Feyenoord wins at home against Heracles they are in 2nd (Feyenoord) and 5th (Heerenveen) place (assuming AZ wins at NEC and PSV wins against ADO).

The 5th place means you'll have to play playoffs for the last EL ticket, BUT because PSV (3rd place) has already secured an EL ticket by winning the Dutch cup the 5th place will get the last EL ticket.

In order for the 5th place to get the remaining EL ticket, PSV has to end 3rd or 4th, thus behind Feyenoord.

Here comes; during the last round Heerenveen hosts Feyenoord! So in order to secure an EL ticket instead of having to play playoffs, Heerenveen needs to lose....

I wonder if the books will adapt, if not, I am all over Feyenoord sunday!

[BigBurk]

6-6-1 this weekend, -0.82x.

YTD 21-19-3 = -0.20x

[Shredder]

Boo! Two weeks of hard work and you get no appreciation from the gambling gods...Better luck next week!

[BigBurk]

Hehe true!! But we learn as we go. I have learned in two weeks that my system is not ready for totals yet (2-6-1 on the 9 total plays) so I am passing on those for a while. Sides are going ok, 19-13-2 (56%) but also have room for improvement.

Enough matches coming up this week to get in black numbers again!

[NotSammySosa]

You have a lean on the Utd - City game? I haven't looked at the line yet by the way.

City: pk and -0.5 -111; ML +120
Man U: pk and +0.5 +103; ML +251
Tie +255

Over 2.5 and 3 -103
Under 2.5 and 3 -107

Leaning towards those. City always score at home and Man U has scored in 33 of 35 games this season. Might be a good play to take Man U ML though. How many times do you get the defending champs at +251

[BigBurk]

I think I'm staying away from this one, as much as I like your leans, this can go either way..

Best of luck on what you decide to play though! Hope you kill them books.

[BigBurk]

I'm awaiting the lines for this wednesday's Dutch Eredivisie matches. Already got some leans (Ajax -whateverrr) so curious what the lines will be!

[NotSammySosa]

I'm awaiting the lines for this wednesday's Dutch Eredivisie matches. Already got some leans (Ajax -whateverrr) so curious what the lines will be!

Ajax - 2.5 and -3 (-124) vs. VVV Venio (worst defence in the league) and Over 3.5 and 4 (-147)
might want to look into Sporting Lisbon vs. Academica Coimbra. just -0.5 1H (-108) and -1 and -1.5 (-102)

[BigBurk]

5dimes only has the moneylines up until now, but I think they will also have the spread at -2.5, -3. I'll definitely take it.

[NotSammySosa]

thats why I didn't put big money on the game. Sir Alex and his bad game plan
at least I got back some of my loses with a Man U pk, +0.5 live bet

[BigBurk]

I think a lot of people got burned on that one... Good you got at least a part of your losses back by taking the live bet!

[NotSammySosa]

I think a lot of people got burned on that one... Good you got at least a part of your losses back by taking the live bet!

note to self. don't bet on big games and see if BigBurk makes a similar play to what I'm thinking

[BigBurk]

Don't attach too much value on my opinion, it's not like I am killing the books lately!

Busy day at work today, will post some picks later.

[BigBurk]

What are everybody's thoughts on Ajax at home against VVV tomorrow?

Ajax will clinch the title officially with at least a draw, whilst VVV needs all the points they can get in order to avoid the playoffs. I have this game set at 4-0 myself, and with a -2½,3 line this has 1,1½ points of value; normally an instant play.

Boerrigter is out on Ajax' behalf though, and I don't think VVV will come in full attack modus.

Starting to doubt whether the spread is a bit too much. AZ only beat them 2-1 some weeks ago for instance.

[BigBurk]

Wednesday:

Mallorca (ESP-P) -111* vs Rayo Vallecano (ESP-P) (1x)

Real Madrid (ESP-P) -1 -111* vs Athletic Bilbao (ESP-P) (1x)

Bolton (ENG-P) +½ -102* vs Tottenham (ENG-P) (1x)

[NotSammySosa]

not liking the Ajax game for Wednesday? probably best to watch the first 20 mins to get a feel for the game but I would go small with the over. should have 4 goals.
Don't have faith in Tottenham vs. a possibly relegated team? Interesting
Madrid should lock up the title tommorow

[BigBurk]

Still busy with the Dutch games, awaiting some injury updates.

Tottenham away from home is almost a guarantee for a loss or draw, plus Bolton has something to fight for..

[BigBurk]

Wednesday:

Mallorca (ESP-P) -111* vs Rayo Vallecano (ESP-P) (1x)

Real Madrid (ESP-P) -1 -111* vs Athletic Bilbao (ESP-P) (1x)

Bolton (ENG-P) +½ -102* vs Tottenham (ENG-P) (1x)

Add:

Ajax (HOL-E) -2½,-3 -131* vs VVV Venlo (HOL-E) (1x)

Big spread, lots of juice. But who cares, Ajax will be crowned champs tonight and I hope they will do so by beating VVV in orderly fashion.

[swordsandtequila]

With you on the Mallorca and Real M. picks Burk, couldn't pull the trigger on Ajax. Too big a spread for my comfort. Went small with the goals on VVV, thinking 3-1 final score. Having said that, they probably kill them. Either way, good luck today.

[Punter101]

Wow you got more confidence in Madrid than I do

[swordsandtequila]

Beat them by 3 goals or more last 4 matchups, and 5 of the last 6. Take my chances giving 1

[BigBurk]

I think they wanna take the title as soon as possible, so even though at Bilbao this should not be a problem.

[NotSammySosa]

Bilbao hasn't played great in the league. quite a few lopsided games today. tempted to just parlay all the favorites to have a positive week

[Punter101]

Bilbao's rested, mostly as Bielsa decided to rest starter's during weekend loss for this game and next week's final not that it matter's much with Madrid having plenty of talent. Bilbao very organised team and they will really try and get up for this win. I hope Madrid win though

[BigBurk]

Early 8th minute goal by Ajax, and then nothing until the break. I do think they will score 2 more when VVV gets tired. Vertonghen very unlucky to hit the post twice, but he is playing great once again.

Mallorca still goalless after the 1H, also hopeful still to win the bet.

[BigBurk]

If Real can hold on to their lead this will be a 2-2 night. Kind of bummed that Ajax could not get a third (25 shots on goal, hit the post 2 times, crossbar once) in but hey, at least we are champs once again!!!!

Bolton turned out into a very bad call, but I have passed on similar games and they won.. Not this time though! On to another day! Last bits and pieces of the season!

[BigBurk]

So, 2-2 last night with an easy Real victory to end the day. -0.33x due to the juice on Ajax.

YTD 23-21-3 = -0.53x

[Shredder]

Ajax! ;p Grats on the winning the c'ship, too bad they couldn't score a couple more but I'm sure you didn't really mind. Good luck today!

[BigBurk]

Last big weekend of this season, going out with a bang (hopefully).

Saturday:

Chelsea (ENG-FA Cup) pk -118* vs Liverpool (ENG-FA Cup) (1x)

FC Sevilla (ESP-P) -½,-1 -102* vs Rayo Vallecano (ESP-P) (1x)

Betis (ESP-P) +½ -121* vs Sporting Gijon (ESP-P) (1x)

Espanyol (ESP-P) +2½,+3 -116* vs Barcelona (ESP-P) (1x)

Valencia (ESP-P) -1 -102* vs Villarreal (ESP-P) (1x)

Real Madrid (ESP-P) -1½ +104* vs Granada (ESP-P) (1x)

Sunday:

Vitesse (HOL-E) +½,+1 -104* vs Ajax (HOL-E) (1x)

Roda JC (HOL-E) -½ -135* vs Utrecht (HOL-E) (1x)

Feyenoord (HOL-E) -126* vs Heerenveen (HOL-E) (1x)

De Graafschap (HOL-E) +1 -137* vs ADO Den Haag (HOL-E) (1x)

Everton (ENG-P) -135* vs Wolves (ENG-P) (1x)

Manchester Utd (ENG-P) -2 -130* vs Swansea (ENG-P) (1x)

Newcastle (ENG-P) +½,+1 -103* vs Manchester City (ENG-P) (1x)

QPR (ENG-P) -115* vs Stoke (ENG-P) (1x)

Aston Villa (ENG-P) +½,+1 -124* vs Tottenham (ENG-P) (1x)

[NotSammySosa]

you have a lot more confidence in Chelsea than I do. I like Valencia and Real to cover. thinking Barca win by 3.
check out the Arsenal/Norwich game at the half. Norwich up 2-1.

[BigBurk]

Yeah I noticed.. My calculations showed Norwich to hold a 1 point favor over Arsenal with the 2 point spread. Just couldn't pull the trigger though. Too bad looking back now...

[BigBurk]

First match of today's card has begun, with Chelsea taking an early 1-0 lead over Liverpool, goal Ramires.

[BigBurk]

2-0, this can't go wrong anymore.

Heading out now, so no time to keep track of the plays tonight! Best of luck on the Spanish matches!

[BigBurk]

2-3-1 today, the away teams all screwed us! Kinda scared for tomorrow, with another 3 away teams on the card.