System test

[allin1]

I am not taking this anymore.

Didn't like the line moves 1h before ko, but the underdog actually won by 2-0.

[allin1]

One pick for Sunday is: Rayo Vallecano +1.5 @1.88

[allin1]

Feyenoord +1.25 @1.96
Ultrecht +1.75 @1.97
Trabzonspor - Mersin +1 @2

I am looking at these but I might not consider "taking" the bet if the lines move strange in the next couple of hours. These are still fictional bets for testing the approach.

[allin1]

Dukla Prague +1.25 @2.02

[allin1]

Cardiff +1.5 @1.95

[allin1]

Hannover +1.75 @1.83

[allin1]

Feyenoord +1.25 @1.96
Ultrecht +1.75 @1.97
Trabzonspor - Mersin +1 @2

Feyenoord is a half win.
Utrecht is a win.

Mersin is still in play leading 2-1 with 15 minutes to go.

since beginning: 9-7-1 +1.68U

[allin1]

Sevilla +0.75 @ 1.87

+0.5 should be ok too at 2.13

[allin1]

Sporting Lisbon - Rio Ave +1 @ 2.09

[allin1]

Trabzonspor - Mersin +1 @2

FT 2-3.

overall record: 10-7-1 +2.68U

[allin1]

One pick for Sunday is: Rayo Vallecano +1.5 @1.88

winner

overall record: 11-7-1 +3.56U

[allin1]

Dukla Prague +1.25 @2.02

FT 1-1: Winner

overall record: 12-7-1 +4.58U

[allin1]

Cardiff +1.5 @1.95

FT: 1-1 Winner

overall record: 13-7-1 +5.53U

[allin1]

Hannover +1.75 @1.83

FT: 3-1 Half Loss

overall record: 14-7.5-1.5 +5.03U

[allin1]

Sevilla +0.75 @ 1.87

+0.5 should be ok too at 2.13

FT Valencia - Sevilla: 1-2 Winner

overall record: 15-7.5-1.5 +5.90U

[allin1]

Sporting Lisbon - Rio Ave +1 @ 2.09

FT: 1-0 Push

overall record: 15-7.5-2.5 +5.90U

[allin1]

Today I am watching the underdogs for two matches:

Lanus - San Martin +0.75 @1.89
Sporting Braga - Guimaraes +1 @1.81

It is a bit too early to decide though.

It seems it is easier for me to decide on underdogs than on favorites when it comes to covering the spread. I don't know if it is the right decision but from now on I won't be counting any of the lower leagues like Bundesliga 2, Eerste Divisie, etc.

[littlezola]

Well done bro, this system is starting to churn the results.

I've got a feeling you'll be right on Braga-Guimaraes. Braga odds are too low firstly, plus no Alan, its a local derby, they only played in Turkey 4 days ago. Guimares +1 is drifting in my book at the moment 1.8 - 1.9 in the last few minutes, might wait a few hours for hopefully better odds.

I've seen Lanus a couple of times this year and they've been very, very good. I'd be surprised if they didn't win this tonight.

Good Luck!!

[allin1]

Well done bro, this system is starting to churn the results.

Well I was quite surprised of the good record from the weekend. I don't know if it is just randomness or the fact that I stopped looking at those second or third divisions. Bigger leagues means bigger bets. more liquidity more sharp players but also more rec-players. The system is all about reading the lines. You know there are some financial traders that actually don't care about the GDP, non farm payrolls or any other news related to the financial markets: they believe that every piece of information is in the price, in the movements of the market. It is the same with this experiment, I don't look at all at who plays, injuries, stats or stuff like that, because all the work is already done by the ones betting and moving or not moving the lines. The tricky part is that I have to guess where most of the rec-player's money goes that's why I end up picking mostly the underdogs in cases where I believe most of the recreational money goes on the favorite.

I've got a feeling you'll be right on Braga-Guimaraes.

Actually I am not considering the Braga game anymore because the lines dropped on Braga.

[allin1]

here is an interesting one even though I don't know this league:

Gornik Zabrze vs. GKS Belchatow
under 2 @1.81

[allin1]

Today I am watching the underdogs for two matches:

Lanus - San Martin +0.75 @1.89
Sporting Braga - Guimaraes +1 @1.81

It is a bit too early to decide though.

These are both off because lines have dropped on the favorites.

[Gndias]

braga is missing some key players and had a hard game midweek ,still if they win they are only 3 points from the 1st

[allin1]

here is an interesting one even though I don't know this league:

Gornik Zabrze vs. GKS Belchatow
under 2 @1.81

Push

overall record: 15-7.5-3.5 +5.90U

[allin1]

Braga - Guimaraes

TU2.5 @1.87

[allin1]

braga is missing some key players and had a hard game midweek ,still if they win they are only 3 points from the 1st

It's interesting how the odds are balancing before kick off... so much that you can't get +1 for the Underdog at more than 1.7

[allin1]

Braga - Guimaraes

TU2.5 @1.87

4-0 Loss

overall record: 15-8.5-3.5 +4.90U

[allin1]

I am thinking of half of unit on
Armenia +1 @1.63 - Serbia

These friendlies are different. Less volume, less sharp money... but it will be interesting to see what happens with the lines in the next hours before kick off.

[allin1]

I went through the numbers again and I think I graded a half win as a full stake win so if I am correct the correct overall record is:

14.5-8.5-4 +4.90U

[allin1]

I am thinking of half of unit on
Armenia +1 @1.63 - Serbia

I am going with Armenia +0.75 @1.88 full unit

[allin1]

another play could be
Bosnia +1.5 @1.77 - Brazil

but there are still some hours to go until ko. Will be watching the lines...

[allin1]

I am going with Armenia +0.75 @1.88 full unit

FT: 0-2 Loss

Overall record: 14.5-9.5-4 +3.90U

[BigTimeWinner]

I am thinking of half of unit on
Armenia +1 @1.63 - Serbia

These friendlies are different. Less volume, less sharp money... but it will be interesting to see what happens with the lines in the next hours before kick off.

mate, I had the fuking over 2.5 on this game, the score was 2-0 at 30' and these fukers couldn't score one more goal. Why am I SOOOOOOOOOOOOO unlucky
armenian shitty team had a chance, open goal no goalkeeper the guy kicked it out ... its just impossible but my fuking luck makes it possible... arghhhhhhhhhhh

[allin1]

mate, I had the fuking over 2.5 on this game, the score was 2-0 at 30' and these fukers couldn't score one more goal. Why am I SOOOOOOOOOOOOO unlucky
armenian shitty team had a chance, open goal no goalkeeper the guy kicked it out ... its just impossible but my fuking luck makes it possible... arghhhhhhhhhhh

I am starting to trust less and less these friendlies and any other lower divisions... totally inefficient and misleading markets, more randomness... probably best to stick only with the big leagues

[BigTimeWinner]

I am starting to trust less and less these friendlies and any other lower divisions... totally inefficient and misleading markets, more randomness... probably best to stick only with the big leagues

thats true but when you have a crappy selection you tend to pick those crappy teams/competitions to bet on and you get screwed. At least I do ... I haven't won a soccer pick in like 2 weeks now I think im gonna switch to basketball

[allin1]

thats true but when you have a crappy selection you tend to pick those crappy teams/competitions to bet on and you get screwed. At least I do ... I haven't won a soccer pick in like 2 weeks now I think im gonna switch to basketball

don't be fooled by randomness. If you haven't won a soccer pick in 2 weeks that doesn't mean you will not win in the next 2 weeks. on contrary your odds of winning are probably bigger now but that doesn't mean you should increase your stake just keep trying