System test

[allin1]

Metz +0.5 (+100)
Duisburg DNB (+135)
SGD vs. MSV Duisburg U2.5(+110)

this is just a test with some free-plays. I am not risking any real money on them.

[allin1]

Telstar - Zwolle

Telstar +1 @1.79

[TonyDimy]

And what's the system exactly?

[allin1]

Something based on line movements and probabilities

[allin1]

.

Duisburg DNB (+135)
SGD vs. MSV Duisburg U2.5(+110)

[allin1]

Metz +0.5 (+100)

Telstar - Zwolle Telstar +1 @1.79

3 losses and 1 win

[littlezola]

I might be way off, but is your system betting on underdogs whose odds have dropped from the opening posted prices.

I've seen people try and get an edge this way, but I've yet so see any evidence it works.

One of the flaws being that:

a)a price opens that is weighted 'incorrectly' towards the favorite OR a favorable price is posted to tempt action on the underdog
b)value is idenitfied in the underdog.
c)action causes a drop in price
b)the system needs the que of dropping odds, so by the time it identifies a bet it's only after they've been canned by everyone and odds become less attractive or lose value.
e)the bet becomes a bad bet.

and that's just the start of it. as i mentioned in other posts around this subject, until you can identify the source of the money causing odds drops (sharps, laying, abritage opportunities etc.) then odds drops are not a reliable means of identifying winners.

[allin1]

Littlezola it's not about underdogs or line drops.

I think I have to pay more attention to the hour before kick off and only then make a decision. Also it seems that is best to apply it only to very popular markets like big europe leagues

[allin1]

Actually I would prefer the lines not to move in order to bet on it

[littlezola]

yeah, it was just a guess based on the matches you posted.

anyway, good luck with this system, i hope it works out for you.

[allin1]

yeah, it was just a guess based on the matches you posted.

anyway, good luck with this system, i hope it works out for you.

Thanks. I don't think it will work but I can probably learn new stuff and get experience by fooling around with it. I do it out of passion

[littlezola]

yeah, any of these test's are worthwhile.

there is so much historical data and powerful statistical software that finding a system is possible. its just that there are so many variables and pitfalls that it is sometimes difficult to know what is significant and what isn't.

if you need any help with statistical modeling or anything, let me know.

[allin1]

if you need any help with statistical modeling or anything, let me know.

I will contact you by pm regarding this. Thanks

[allin1]

St. Mirren - Aberdeen Under 2 @2 I don't like it that much because the odds dropped but still I will be watching it.

[allin1]

sassuolo - ascoli: 2 +0.75 @1.95

[allin1]

Bayer 04 Leverkusen ML 1.95
Freiburg +0.5 2.11

[allin1]

Nottingham +1 1.81

[allin1]

Crystal Palace +1 @ 1.78

[MatI]

Nice. You are allowed lots of free plays.

[allin1]

Nice. You are allowed lots of free plays.

the free plays were in the first day. these are mostly fictional bets

[MatI]

I see.

[allin1]

Newcastle @1.53 - Wolves

[allin1]

Kaiserslautern +0.75 @1.82

[allin1]

Hoffenheim +0.25 @ 1.88

[allin1]

Bristol City +0.25 @1.76 Unfortunately this line dropped a lot so maybe DNB @2.11 is a better choice

[allin1]

St. Mirren - Aberdeen Under 2 @2 I don't like it that much because the odds dropped but still I will be watching it.

push

[allin1]

Crystal Palace +1 @ 1.78

winner

[allin1]

Motherwell +1.5 @1.78

[allin1]

sassuolo - ascoli: 2 +0.75 @1.95

winner

Freiburg +0.5 2.11

loser

[allin1]

Kaiserslautern +0.75 @1.82

Loser

[allin1]

Bayer 04 Leverkusen ML 1.95

Hoffenheim +0.25 @ 1.88

both winners

[allin1]

Nottingham +1 1.81

Newcastle @1.53 - Wolves

Bristol City +0.25 @1.76 Unfortunately this line dropped a lot so maybe DNB @2.11 is a better choice

Motherwell +1.5 @1.78

4 still pending
so far for today: 4-2-1
since beginning: 5-5-1 +0.61U

[allin1]

Roda - Graafschap +2 @1.57

[allin1]

Nottingham +1 1.81

win

Newcastle @1.53 - Wolves

loss

Bristol City +0.25 @1.76 Unfortunately this line dropped a lot so maybe DNB @2.11 is a better choice

loss

Motherwell +1.5 @1.78

win

since beginning: 7-7-1 +0.2U

[allin1]

Roda - Graafschap +2 @1.57

I am not taking this anymore.