karajohn's picks

[karajohn13]

I'm new to the forum, I will try to make a good effort

Bank: 50u

First will be today's Scotland match

Dunfermline - Kilmarnock OVER 2.5 1.98 @pinnacle (1u)

[chinaski]

welcome and GL

[karajohn13]

Not good start at all for me, although they had 45 minutes to score a single goal

Bank: 49u

[jram68]

lookin good

[karajohn13]

Panetolikos - Doxa Dramas 1 1.549 @pinnacle (4u)

Bank: 45u

[TonyDimy]

I think 4u is too much when you have 49u in your bankroll. Just thinking out loud, of course it's up to you to decide.

I'm looking at the stats now and Under 2.5 looks even better. I might pick it for parlay. Or maybe Panetolikos U1.5 @ 1.77 I wish I knew something about those teams.

[PANATHINAIKOS]

Hi to all.
Newbie to this forum and sorry for my bad english.
Panaitolikos is surprise team for this year but Doxa dramas plays also good football this year and may put one gol.
So my opinion is 1x for this game.May be it is better to play asteras tripolis to win levadiakos today.

[agentu75]

Doxa made a very nice performance against Asteras last week, despite the loss (1-0). Doxa had 3 tremendous scoring chances (2 of them before Asteras' goal, at the 2nd half) and deserved at least a point, if not all 3.
GL !

[karajohn13]

Everything mentioned is quite right. My point is that Panetolikos will have after two months his captain and best CM today, who absolutely improves his team. Regarding the 4u bet, you are right, I'm taking a big risk, I hope I won't go wrong

[karajohn13]

Lyon - Bordeaux: BTS, 2.00 @betclic (1u)
Asteras Tripolis - Levadiakos: X, 3,44 @pinnacle (0,5u)

Bank: 43.5u

[karajohn13]

Lyon - Bordeaux: BTS, 2.00 @betclic (1u)
Asteras Tripolis - Levadiakos: X, 3,44 @pinnacle (0,5u)

Bank: 43.5u

Bank: 45.5u

[karajohn13]

Panetolikos - Doxa Dramas 1 1.549 @pinnacle (4u)

Bank: 45u

Bank: 45.5u

This was a really magic picture. Anyone wathed it, the game should end 3-1 or 4-1, but that's football and so that's Football betting

[karajohn13]

One last for today:
Parlay:
Stuttgart - Bayern M. BTS
BArca - Valencia BTS
2.88 @betclic

Bank: 44.5u

[karajohn13]

Total failure

1-4-0

[karajohn13]

Melbourne Victory - Central Coast Mariners: TO2.5, 2.01 @pinnacle (1u)

Bank 43.5u

PS: I will start a thread where I will comment on upcoming Greek matches. It is indeed a weird championship, I will try to give you as many useful informations as I can, regarding the importance of injured players, form, history, background etc

[littlezola]

^^^ I've been coining in from the under2.5 market in The Greek league over the last few weeks. i think i got on it a bit late, the odds are super low now these days (1.4-5 etc.) ...on the flip side, the overs are priced huge, 2.7 and the like, so i've been thinking of getting on that end in the hope that the stats will start to get more uniform.

if you are in tune with that league i'd be interested to hear your thoughts on why the goals are so low this term, well below average anyway. and do you think it'll even out over the course of the season?

[karajohn13]

^^^ I've been coining in from the under2.5 market in the greek league over the last few weeks. i think i got on it a bit late, the odds are super low now these days (1.4-5 etc.) ...on the flip side, the overs are priced huge, 2.7 and the like, so i've been thinking of getting on that end in the hope that the stats will start to get more uniform.

if you are in tune with that league i'd be interested to hear your thoughts on why the goals are so low this term, well below average anyway. and do you think it'll even out over the course of the season?

I'm from Greece, so I will try to explain it. In my opinion the "so many unders" thing, is due to the combination of so many average teams(even the best teams due to the injuries and the financial problems they face have dropped down their stands), and the football philosophy of most of the teams which is quite difficult to be described.

Now, regarding the question if this is gonna change during this season, my answer is NO when it is for teams that fight for a specific goal, whether this is the play-offs or to avoid the relegation.

Hope I helped, for any other question about the mysterious world of Greek Superleague, my pleasure to help

[littlezola]

yeah, i've been running a couple of tests from data over the last few years, and while it wasn't as extreme - last year the superleague had a similar drop in goals scored around this time of year. it did average out again, and start creeping towards a less remarkable figure during the last 1/4 or so of the season
.
this was not replicated in the previous year (2 seasons ago)

5 out of 16 teams last year finished with an average of less than 2 goals per game, which is crazy. its seems there are far more this year.

have the coaches been influenced heavily by the otto renghal template? or is that too simplistic? i know argentina has similar low goals this year, but that league is so possesion obsessed that its incredible, plus the drain of talented centre forwards at the close of play every year.

last question, do you think doxa dramas can escape relegation this year? i've made some money from them this year because the odds were so high for ah +1.5 on them, but they seem to be stringing together some impressive results.

[karajohn13]

I'm afraid Doxa Dramas won't make it to avoid relegation. They learnt just in November that they would take part in the league: since the 30th of November, almost every week they play matches Sunday-Wednesday-Sunday and this have already exausted them. Doxa is not bad at all, but I feel there are better teams to avoid relegation. In my opinion, Doxa and Kerkyra are the two to play next year in Football League.

[TonyDimy]

Olympiakos @ 1.30 against AEK. Those are top3 teams! Do you have an explanation, mate?

[karajohn13]

Olympiakos @ 1.30 against AEK. Those are top3 teams! Do you have an explanation, mate?

This is one of the reasons I call Greek Superleague a mysterious case. Of course these are top3 teams, but AEK faces some great financial problems, no one is sure that AEK will exist as a team next year, or in a few months . On the other hand, Olympiacos have started playing good football last weeks, he is really tough in his home and it would be a big surprise for me if he didn't win today but trust me, there is no value at all at this 1.30. In my opinion Olympiacos will win, but this 1.30 don't give justice at all at the difficulty of the game. I will write more details later on, in a thread especially for the Greek League

[karajohn13]

Melbourne Victory - Central Coast Mariners: TO2.5, 2.01 @pinnacle (1u)

Bank 43.5u

Bank: 45.51u

2-4-0

[karajohn13]

Olympiakos - AEK: HT/FT 1/1, 1.90 @bet365 (1u)
Olympiakos - AEK: 2-3 goals, 2.00 @bet365 (1u)
Trabzonspor - Gaziadepspor : BTS, 1.95. @betclic (1u)

Bank: 42.51u

[karajohn13]

Olympiakos - AEK: HT/FT 1/1, 1.90 @bet365 (1u)
Olympiakos - AEK: 2-3 goals, 2.00 @bet365 (1u)
Trabzonspor - Gaziadepspor : BTS, 1.95. @betclic (1u)

Bank: 42.51u

That was really good!

Bank: 48.36u

5-4-0

[TonyDimy]

What are your thoughts about Rubin - Olympiakos in Europa League? Rubin didn't play a single official game in the last three months, they are a very defensive team, and Christian Noboa, their best player, is now playing for Dynamo Moscow. But I don't know anything about Olympiakos. Do they want to play in Europa League? How difficult it is for them to play 2 games in three days? And it will be -12C in Moscow tomorrow (the game will take place at Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow, not in Kazan), how much it will affect them?

I know that there's no straight answer to any of it, but I'd like to see your opinion.

[PANATHINAIKOS]

Καλημερα φιλε Karajohn.Εισαι Ελληνας απο οτι εχω καταλαβει.Το φανταστηκα κ απο το νικ σου βεβαια.
Συγχαρητηρια για το τιπ του ολυμπιακου, πολυ εξυπνο, δυστυχως δεν σε ακολουθησα κ πηγα στον κουβα με οβερ οπως πολοι.
Θα σε εχω κατα προτιμηση απο εδω κ περα.Να εισαι καλα.
Ελλαδα μενεις η εξωτερικο?

[karajohn13]

What are your thoughts about Rubin - Olympiakos in Europa League? Rubin didn't play a single official game in the last three months, they are a very defensive team, and Christian Noboa, their best player, is now playing for Dynamo Moscow. But I don't know anything about Olympiakos. Do they want to play in Europa League? How difficult it is for them to play 2 games in three days? And it will be -12C in Moscow tomorrow (the game will take place at Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow, not in Kazan), how much it will affect them?

I know that there's no straight answer to any of it, but I'd like to see your opinion.

Hi my friend.
First of all, to make it clear to you, everyone in Olympiakos want like crazy the team to go on in Europa League. FYI, if they make it against Rubin, they will face the winner of the couple Salzburg-Metalist, and they believe they can make it to the next round. So, the answer is yes, they want to go on in Europa League. And also, they don't face any problems playing every three days: they have many good players to make wins in Greek league.
BUT, it's not easy for me to "read" this game. As you sai, Rubon hasn't played any sinlge official game for the last three months. On the other hand, I'm not able to know how the players of Olympiakos will perform in such cold conditions. I believe that Olympiakos will look for at least one goal at the fast break(Djebour and Miralas are really fast strikers). I strongly believe that Olympiakos will go on in the next round, but I can't tell for sure how the match will go tomorrow. I will post as soon as there are any information about the game

[TonyDimy]

I believe that Olympiakos will look for at least one goal at the fast break(Djebour and Miralas are really fast strikers).

That's what PAOK did against Rubin last year. The questions are: how good is Olympiakos' defense and what is Rubin capable of (and there's no answer to that).

FYI. There's synthetic pitch at the Luzhniki Stadium and the game is scheduled to start at 5:00pm (Moscow time) so it wouldn't be too cold to play. So at least the field is not going to be a problem.

Thanks for you reply

[karajohn13]

That's what PAOK did against Rubin last year. The questions are: how good is Olympiakos' defense and what is Rubin capable of (and there's no answer to that).

FYI. There's synthetic pitch at the Luzhniki Stadium and the game is scheduled to start at 5:00pm (Moscow time) so it wouldn't be too cold to play. So at least the field is not going to be a problem.

Thanks for you reply

The defense is really good with the best greek CB Papadopoulos, the best RB Torosidis, Melberg(I believe everyone knows it). I don't know who's gonna play left(I don't know how good is Rubin at the right), Marcano or Holebas. Holebas is a great left full back, while Marcano is not that good. I will let you know as soon as I know

[karajohn13]

Doncaster - Blackpool: Over2.5, 1.92 @pinnacle (1u)

Bank: 47.36u

5-4-0

[karajohn13]

Doncaster - Blackpool: Over2.5, 1.92 @pinnacle (1u)

Bank: 49.28u

6-4-0

[karajohn13]

Doxa Dramas - Kerkyra: 2, 2.85 @WilliamHill(1u)

Bank: 48.28u

6-4-0

[TonyDimy]

5-0 run, huh? Kerkyra is leading 0-1, good luck

[karajohn13]

5-0 run, huh? Kerkyra is leading 0-1, good luck

Thanks man. I made a terrible start, mainly because, ignoring your and agentu's wise advise, and counting on my "greek" logic, I had this shitty pick last week with Panaitolikos.

PS: Without being an "official" one, I will probably put a small bet(0.5u) on the draw at the next greek match, Levadeiakos vs Panaitolikos

[karajohn13]

OFF TOPIC

There is a game for the Greek Basketball League in progress, Kolossos vs Olympiakos. Could anyone tell me how much does the Olympiakos's win pays right now at the Live Betting of Bet365? (I'm at work and can not load "gambling" pages )
Thanks in advance


Edit: Nevermind