PickApprentice Football Picks

Marginalis · 01-16-12, 11:30 AM

gl

GGG · 01-16-12, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by PickApprentice

I have been struggling to log into this forum for the past few months, and it seems like the problem has gone now. Don't know if it is because of the country I am in or what.

Have been doing quite well recently by playing value. I have a system where I try to catch the bookies from any price decrease. Basically, any decrease in excess of 10%, then it is a play for me. It has worked quite well with the smaller league, but I find the Belgium has not been quite popular with the system. Obviously, will also post my leans for the English Premier League.

There is no guarantee that I will make profit, but just sharing some relevant information to confirm your leans if any.

To start things off, this is what I got for the next few days:

Portogruaro ML @ 2.25
Fenerbahce @ 1.9
Pescara @ 2
Inverness CT @ 2.45

Good luck!

I doubt this is gonna work.
Odds dropping doesn't necessarily mean that it's a good bet. It could easily be because the majority of bets hitting that team and we all know that the bookmakers makes their cash on the majority. Fenerbahce is a great example of that. Alex is most likely out for Fenerbahce, so I don't really get why the public is all over them. I'm not saying Fenerbahce wont win, but I just don't see any value at them.

http://uk.site.sports.betfair.com/betting/LoadRunnerInfoAction.do?marketId=104638070&selectionId=58805&timeZone=Europe/Copenhagen&region=NORD&locale=da&brand=betfair&currency=DKK

But, good luck.

PickApprentice · 01-16-12, 07:21 PM

In response to your comment, I have tried this out for the past months and it has work relatively well for me. I have an edge here as I come from a 3rd world country where most local bookies track international bookies. They don't really come up with their own lines, but rather follow movement. If I can catch them, then I definitely have an edge. I don't think sometimes it is about the public bet that they move the prices. They also respond to the team news as well and inside information.

I will give you one example Maastricht v Willem II. The line went down from 2.65ish to 2.4ish. The public only had 30% on the home team. The result was 3-1 to the home team. Is that due to the information from the team which they have now factored into their models? Most likely!

Each game is unique on its own, but thank you for raising your concern. I am simply here to share my picks, if people out there disagree with this strategy, welcome to view this as an opinion.

With regards to the Fenerbache match, even if it turned out to be a draw, I still think away win was the right play. We must remember that there is a chance of Fenerbache not winning, but as long as that percentage is not greater than 48%, then the you should be able to gain in the long run at that price.

GGG, you welcome to criticize any of my plays. People viewing this forum must see form more than 1 perspective.

GGG · 01-16-12, 07:24 PM

Of course. But if you're simply looking at the line movement you have no idea if it's actually a good bet or not, unless you know why the line moved.

I can see your point in catching slow updating bookies off guard, I'm just doubting it's gonna work.
But I wish you good luck of course ,)

PickApprentice · 01-16-12, 07:25 PM

I have the follow for tomorrow:

Lens @ 2.6 youwin
Reims @ 2.6 youwin
Chateaurou @ 2.36 youwin
Anderlect @ evens

PickApprentice · 01-16-12, 07:25 PM

Okay, let me prove you wrong

GGG · 01-16-12, 07:27 PM

I hope you do ,)

GGG · 01-16-12, 07:29 PM

Btw, how many plays have you tried this tactic on?

PickApprentice · 01-17-12, 03:37 AM

I would say at about 50 matches.

PickApprentice · 01-17-12, 05:04 PM

Just hit 3/3 tonight, the games were as follow:

Ebbsfleet 2.4
St. Mirren 2.2
Guingamp 2.15

So, so far the record stands at 5-1.

If you don't believe me, check the historical price which have all dropped by at least 10%.

brunofortes · 01-17-12, 08:50 PM

could you elaborate the system ? i guess its still not clear for me. Thanks

PickApprentice · 01-18-12, 03:48 AM

Ok, so basically, I track the movement with the major bookmakers out there, because I believe they have more information about that game, etc. So any price movement by them would reflect the on it. I use that as a guide and play with the smaller bookmakers that tend to piggyback off them.

Whenever there is a change of price that is greater than 10% within 24 hours movement then I play. I only really interested in games with odds starting off at 2.6 max. If the odd starts off at 3.2, then I will play draw no bet. the movement has to be the average movement amongst the bookmakers.

I also do some background check on the team position, form, etc. It has worked quite well to my surprise. There seems to be movement largely due to the result of information rather than public bet on them. Obviously, if I see more than 70% of the public is on them, then it provides me with that confidence to go in.

PickApprentice · 01-18-12, 03:49 AM

In this business, it is all about value, and if you have that edge over the bookies, then you will make profit in the long run. I have a lot of accounts with smaller bookies in my country and that also works in my favour.

dacs · 01-18-12, 11:08 AM

But how do u track all the leagues movement?
Or do u only concentrate on specific league?

GGG · 01-18-12, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by PickApprentice

In this business, it is all about value, and if you have that edge over the bookies, then you will make profit in the long run. I have a lot of accounts with smaller bookies in my country and that also works in my favour.

Yes it's about value.
But you're so damn wrong here. Please. You cannot tell if there is any value by looking at the odds movement. The odds move all the time. Up down up down up down. There is no way you can tell if this movement is reflecting actual supporting information or it's just completely random.
What if the odds drop 10% then move up 20% You're screwed then, according to your tactic.

Think about it. This is such a simple method.
It shouldnt be able to work, if it did, everyone would be doing it.
I'm sure you can find other people who has tried the exact same thing you're doing right here and who failed.

GGG · 01-18-12, 11:16 AM

Document all your plays this year. At least 800 bets to get a steady line.
If you actually get a noticeable profit out of it I will eat my words.

PickApprentice · 01-18-12, 11:50 AM

Ok, ggg. I am just sharing my strategy. Whether I win or lose, only I will know really well.

If there are others out there who do not appreciate me posting, let me know. I will refrain from posting.

It has work well for me, and that is why I share.

I don't understand why I am receiving attack just to share my opinion, it is not as if I charge you for my service or putting a gun next to your head

GGG · 01-18-12, 11:52 AM

Don't stop posting, please. That was not the point of my post.
I just strongly disagree that you can tell value by looking at line movement.
Prove me wrong, keep going.

Attack?

Which part of what I wrote made you think you were being attacked, was it the "damn" part?

PickApprentice · 01-18-12, 11:54 AM

For tonight,

Monaco 3.2 boyle sports
Wolves 2.1 interwetten

PickApprentice · 01-18-12, 12:25 PM

Bastia 1.73 ladbrokes

PickApprentice · 01-18-12, 12:31 PM

Now, just note. For the Monaco game, if you want to be conservative which is what I normally do, play draw no bet. You can still get odd above 2.

I am not going to do that for this game as I believe Monaco does have a good chance of winning. Will make this an exception.

PickApprentice · 01-18-12, 03:56 PM

Portogruaro ML @ 2.25

Fenerbahce @ 1.9

Pescara @ 2

Inverness CT @ 2.45
Lens @ 2.6 youwin

Reims @ 2.6 youwin

Chateaurou @ 2.36 youwin

Anderlect @ evens

Ebbsfleet 2.4

St. Mirren 2.2

Guingamp 2.15

Monaco 3.2 boyle sports

Wolves 2.1 interwetten
Bastia 1.73 ladbrokes good (only limted to 10 images)

PickApprentice · 01-18-12, 04:01 PM

7-5 with

+ 6.63 units

Taranto ML 2.06 goalwin
Wolfsburg 1.95 tipico

PickApprentice · 01-19-12, 06:30 PM

Montrose 2 Coral
Luton 2.1 888

PickApprentice · 01-20-12, 08:50 AM

Gaziantepspor 2.3 betway

chinaski · 01-20-12, 11:34 AM

^^ tailing you on this one

PickApprentice · 01-20-12, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by chinaski

^^ tailing you on this one

Good that you are on it!

Den Haag 2.1 betway
AEL Limassol 2.2 intewetten
Omonia 2.1 paddypower
Besiktas 2

PickApprentice · 01-20-12, 02:53 PM

Montrose 2 Coral
Luton 2.1 888
Gaziantepspor 2.3 betway

Den Haag 2.1 betway

AEL Limassol 2.2 intewetten
Omonia 2.1 paddypower
Besiktas 2 ladbrokes

Charleroi 1.95

Taranto ML 2.06 goalwin
Wolfsburg 1.95 tipico

11-6 + 8.88 units

adding

Monarcas 1.91 ladbrokes
Reggiana 2.52 10bet

update: got 3-1 tonight where the other game ended 3-3, but the home team was leading for 3 times during the game.

PickApprentice · 01-20-12, 03:41 PM

adding

Brechin 2.1 888
Sydney 2 sportingbet

PickApprentice · 01-20-12, 04:54 PM

ggg, are you convinced yet?

GGG · 01-20-12, 05:00 PM

Honestly, no. I'm glad it's going good for you but you would need a lot more games to get a steady line.
750-1000 bets should tell you if you're on to something or not.

But hey, great start

Did you get any use of oddsportal?

PickApprentice · 01-20-12, 05:18 PM

nope, I didn't have the time to look at it properly, but it looks good. Will have a look after my exams.

Well, I am going to prove you wrong by making more units than you do

I also select my picks and not just blindly bet on any game that have dropped. As you can see, the games are pretty decent and I have seen some of them featured in your picks as well which is a good thing. I know this combine with my skills will work

, and I have been making quite a bit.

GGG · 01-20-12, 05:20 PM

In my defence, I've been in a really unlucky week

I'm still up 11 Units (On SBR) though.
But you're closing in

Anyways good luck.

PickApprentice · 01-20-12, 06:40 PM

Club America 2.05
Kidderminster 2.3
Torino 2.3
East Fife2.6
Dundee 2.5
Arbroath 1.8
Boavista 1.75

The game with regards to Reggiana has been under the spot light due to irregular movements. I am not saying it is a fix, but it has some sign of a fixed game.