Serie A - Week 18 [Q&A]

[TheSportsAnalyst]

I've noticed many of you are scared about Italian soccer because the evergreen "they have all fixed matches" and so on.

I don't know if there are other italians like me in this section of SBR (probably not, mainly because our difficulty to speak english as you can see in my posts I suppose).
Anyway probably it could be useful to open a dedicated thread for every week to speak about betting on italian soccer (Serie A but also serie B, if any interested).
I'm not a star in all-around gambling but Italy is my country and in the past I've ever had a hit ratio (and a profit/loss) better than my average, so if I could help with some info like morale, lineups, "suspect things" or anything please ask me.

This is the schedule:

Catania-Roma
Lazio-Atalanta
Cesena-Novara
Chievo-Palermo
Fiorentina-Lecce
Genoa-Udinese
Juventus-Cagliari
Parma-Siena
Milan-Inter
Napoli-Bologna

[GGG]

Serie A is so random.
I really don't like it for betting.

[pellumb341]

i am from albania and most of albanians are italian fans i am 21 years and i follow italian seria A since i was 9 years so i have good knowledge about it but seria A is getting more e more unpredictable ... Tonight i see a victory of catania ,or at least a draw

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Tonight game is really a no play for me.

I believe it is a totally unpredictable match: Roma is on fire and Lamela is showing himself as the beast of this positive streak for the giallorossi.
On the opposite side Massimino stadium is really tough for away team and recently Catania has shown a good intensity.
I don't like the odds for Roma (@2.42 is too low b/c it's an high risk game) but I'm not so confident Catania could hold Roma pressure.
A draw? Maybe or (more probably) maybe not.

[mikejamm]

Who do you like in todays Catania-Roma match up?

[gryfyn1]

Who do you like in todays Catania-Roma match up?

pouring rain and massive puddles on the field, any capping anyone did on the game is out the window with these conditions...

[gotov]

Is there any rain forecast in Milan derby?
Any thoughts on the derby?

[GGG]

Is there any rain forecast in Milan derby?
Any thoughts on the derby?

Really a hard match to predict.
AC Milan have played solid so far and are still undefeated at home.
They're on a 4-1-0 run with a goal difference of 10:2.
AC Milan will be without; Alberto Aquilani, Gennaro Gattuso, Mario Yepes, Mathieu Flamini. The only one of those absents that have been used regular this season is Aquilani. Replacing him should not really be a problem.

Inter is on a good run of 5 straight wins and a goal difference of 15:1, but it has been against a lot lower opponents than AC Milan
Inter is finally injury free meaning Sneijder could go straight into the starting 11. Inters only missing is
Sulley Muntari who is on national duty. He has only been on the field 4 times this season so his absence should not be noticed.

If I was forced to bet on this match I would probably go for the draw @ 3.30.
But this is a no bet match for me.

Should be clear weather for the match.

Good luck with whatever you pick.

[gotov]

Thanks ggg,
I can see the game ending 1-1 or Ibra getting the winner.
GL to u also

[justin81]

both teams on fire, over 2.5.

[BigTimeWinner]

For tomorrow I would take:
lazio - over 2.5
juventus - over 2.5
simply because all the teams involved play quite attacking football and the head to head stats

[MartR]

Udinese ML 2.63 looks like good value? Is there anything I should know about this game?
Thanks for your answer,

[gryfyn1]

Udinese ML 2.63 looks like good value? Is there anything I should know about this game?
Thanks for your answer,

careful Undinese do not play well on the road, they are just 2-4-2 while netting just 6 goals and that includes a 2-0 win over last place Lecce on opening day.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Just a little breakdown (not my picks, only my point of view):


Juventus - Cagliari [NO BET / NO BET]
I'm not sure about this match so I suggest a no play. In Italy there are no Real Madrid o Barcelona, a winning odds at 1.36 for me is a little bit low, even if Juventus is in 1st place and at home.
No particular trends for O/U.
Cesena - Novara [Cesena @2.06 / NO BET]
Probably a little bit risky but Cesena had rested their starters in Coppa Italia match, last thursday, they are prepared for this matchup and recently they have lost against Inter Milan, Udinese and Napoli (three top teams) so don't look at the form as a valuable trend.
Chievo - Palermo [Palermo @4.17 / NO BET]
You like the dogs? Then take Palermo. In Italy it is considered the 1X2 classic type of matchup. Of course Chievo is in good shape but Palermo, at this value, definetly is worth a try. Obviously it is only a suggestion for the ones who really likes finding value in the dogs.
Fiorentina - Lecce [NO BET / O 2.5 @1.87]
Fiorentina for me is simply not a team to take @1.50, even at home, even against a really bad team like Lecce. But I'm really, really confident this will be an high scoring game.
Genoa - Udinese [Udinese @2.67 / NO BET]
Probably it's gonna be my strong bet of the day. Yes MartR, looks like very high value.

More to come.

[Vaughany]

Could see Juve only getting a draw today, although Cagliari have sold Biondini which wont help them

[pellumb341]

Although i am inter fan,tonight i think :
Milan win
Milan HT win/FT win
Milan to score over 1,5

[pellumb341]

genoa win or draw ... udinese is a good team ,but they won't be crowned champion

[Vaughany]

I like Matri to score against his former club today. See Milan puttin a couple past Inter's dodgy defence as well

[Bluedragon]

Anybody liking AC today??

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Anybody liking AC today??

Yes. I pick AC Milan for tonight.

[Bluedragon]

Yes. I pick AC Milan for tonight.

Thanks. Especially after the Juve draw, they will be motivated, in my opinion.

[Vaughany]

Could see Juve only getting a draw today, although Cagliari have sold Biondini which wont help them