The Sports Analyst' 2012 Soccer Thread

[TheSportsAnalyst]

I don't care so much about past h2h in soccer, because turnover (coaches and players) mess up things every season. In USA Sports you could have the same lineup for about 2/3 years, in soccer more than not you have 2/3 different lineups (and usually coaches) in 2/3 seasons.
I'm pretty confident about this game but I play for the long run, so i weight the confidence AND the odds. At @2.00 I think we could have some value, not much probably but definitely something.

[Semper Fidelis]

You're right about many American sports-the turnover rate for players and coaches is very slow for many teams. It just makes me nervous that academica hasn't won a game at home since September lol. I originally thought this might just be a toss-up with how inconsistent both teams seem to be. That's why I come here to get advice from people that are experts in this sport! I'll tail academica for the win and hope for the best! Thanks again friend!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

You're welcome pal!
best of luck to us, so!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Gaziantep and Emmen won and we hit 2 out of 3 over in Holland.
Unfortunately Maastricht finally took a draw from Helmond Sport and now we've to wait Academica match (0-0 at HT).

Right now up for a little less than a unit, let's see what we'll get.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

4 wins and 3 losses today.
Not a huge profit but we can have our chicken dinner tonight.


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TSA 2012 RECORD (Since Jan. 16th)

13 W - 8 L
+$52.68 ($25 on every bet) / +2.11 Units (out of 21.00 units staked)

Hit rate: 61.90%
Avg. Odds: 1.898
Net ROI: +10.05%

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Really excited for tomorrow. I like saturday and I like the ton of football/soccer we're gonna have.
And tomorrow we'll have also Africa Cup of Nation kickoff: underrated football, great intensity and a lot of opportunities I hope I'll be able to take.

Have a good night guys!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Good morning guys!
Ready for some football?


#22 - Draw (Samsunspor vs Orduspor) (Turkey - SuperLiga) @3.170

Last 5 matchups: 5 draws. Samsunspor at home: 4 draws out of 9 matches. Orduspor away: 3 draws out of 10 matches.
17th (at home) against 14th (away).
Yes, I really like a draw here.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#23 - Omonia Nicosia vs Anorthosis Famagusta (O 2.5) (Cyprus - Firs Division) @2.600

Big match in Cyprus today. Omonia is leading team there and has a powerful offense, I think they're gonna score at least 1 gol, as Anorthosis but I really don't see a draw here: too much hate and rivalry between these two squads.
Basically what I'm thinking is: both teams are able to score at least a goal but probably we're gonna see a fight until final seconds to gain a W. So, why I couldn't try an over at this very interesting price?
A lil'risk (not so much for me), a very high reward.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#24 - Saint Mirren vs Celtic FC (Scotland - Premier League) @1.476

Celtic is red hot and historically they've been winners in recent past against St. Mirren. Absolutely no AH advice here, probably is gonna be hard for Celtic to pull out a W from St. Mirren Park but the home team really hadn't impressed me recently and taking the heavy away fav with odds around 1.50 in the past had worked pretty well for me so I'm gonna picking the Bhoys.
If you absolutely like St. Mirren I suggest to take an handicap not under +1.25.
Beautiful beautiful game, anyway.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#25 - SV Babelsberg 03/Wacker Burghausen (O 2.5) (Germany - 3. Liga) @2.040

#26 - SV Darmstadt 98/SV Sandhausen (O 2.5) (Germany - 3. Liga) @2.290

#27 - Carl Zeiss Jena/Saarbrücken (O 2.5) (Germany - 3. Liga) @1.781

Value selections here: I don't think odds are accurate.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#28 - Bari vs Modena (Italy - Serie B) @2.030
#29 - Bari/Modena (O 2.5) (Italy - Serie B) @2.32

In Italy everyone thinks Modena is gonna win b/c Donati transfer and fixed game scandal are serious issues for Bari. I don't think so: I've seen a good shape team in Varese last week and I'm confident they finally hit an home win (streak of 5 matches in Bari without a W).
I took also the over because Modena has a really poor defense but probably in some unusual way (as they do everytime) they'll find a score. 2-1/3-1 (or 2-0) for Bari seems reasonable for me.


#30 - Cittadella vs Torino (Italy - Serie B) @3.700

Sometimes Toro struggles when they plays away from Torino, even against mid-table teams. If Cittadella will find a way to score in first half I think I have a good chance to take a win from this match because granata suffered this kind of situations this year.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#31 - Cittadella/Torino (O 2.5) (Italy - Serie B) @2.590

#32 - Ascoli vs Gubbio (Italy - Serie B) @1.900

[TheSportsAnalyst]

I'm really not looking good today. Hoping in Serie B (last pick was Ascoli to win, I missed to specify but the odds are clear) and 3. Bundesliga second half.
Poor show by Celtic, too.
Last selections for 1/2 hours.


#33 - TSG Hoffenheim vs Hannover 96 (Germany - Bundesliga) @1.830

#34 - Schalke 04 vs VfB Stuttgart (Germany - Bundesliga) @1.660

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#35 - Fulham vs Newcastle United (England - Premier League) @2.000

I think Fulham has the edge here. Good home team against a Newcastle without their best man Ba. Probably not much value under the even (2.00/+100).

[TheSportsAnalyst]

2 out of 6 (!!!) right now, but down only a couple of units (two overs missed by one goal, as usual ).

Serie B at HT is looking pretty decent at least (go Cittadella!!!) and Schalke took the early lead in Gelsenkirchen.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#36 - Alcorcon vs Numancia (Spain - Segunda Division) @2.220

Two mid-table teams, Numancia struggled in the recent past in taking away win and Alcorcon seems pretty solid at home. I think this is the kind of low-hype games in which we could find a little edge over the bookies.
As you know I don't like the AH (and I'll play ML) but +0.5 seems a lock for conservative players.

#37 - Girona/Real Murcia (U 2.5) (Spain - Segunda Division) @1.690

#38 - Guadalajara/Real Valladolid (O 2.5) (Spain - Segunda Division) @2.270

#39 - Draw (Sabadell vs Las Palmas) (Spain - Segunda Division) @3.330
#40 - Sabadell/Las Palmas (O 2.5) (Spain - Segunda Division) @2.020

Let's see if I finally can get my draw. Spain, like Italy, is pretty favourable for draws and these two teams need some points to take a little advantage from relegation zone. It's my third draw prediction, last two didn't hit, now it's time to cash some money.
Selection #40 is to back myself in case we don't get the draw. Sabadell has the worst defense in the league but they are at home: I don't think they are able to keep the clean sheet but I also don't see a Las Palmas win by 1-0/2-0. Hopefully we can cash 1 out of 2 there.

[xzoticx]

your best play for today ?

[TheSportsAnalyst]

your best play for today ?

I don't have a best play xzoticz.
But I have a pretty good confidence in Fenerbahce play, below.

Serie B is making me crazy. 1 out of 5 today and a loss of 3.10 units. :/


#41 - Kasimpasa/Konyaspor (O 2.5) (Turkey - Bank Asya 1. Lig) @2.300

#42 - Fenerbahce/Kayserispor (U 2.5) (Turkey - SuperLiga) @1.900

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#43 - Kaiserslautern vs Werder Bremen (Germany - Bundesliga) @2.620

#44 - Excelsior vs NAC Breda (Netherlands - Eredivise) @1.926

#45 - Excelsior/NAC Breda (O 2.5) (Netherlands - Eredivise) @1.735

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Finally I had my draw.

But it's a terrible saturday for me. 9-12 yet and down 2 units.
Yes lucky is not for me (Alcorcon burned a two-scores lead and wasn't able to convert a lot of shots in final minutes) but lucky is not something you can weigh when you're a gambler.

I've three bets still pending (last post picks) and I'm looking for something in the night.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#46 - Real Betis vs Sevilla (Spain - Primera Division) @2.420

This is my 25th and final pick for today. Hot rivalry here, I think home team would gain a little advantage (they are an hard-fight team so don't expect they are going to concede a draw tonight).

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Bad saturday, wiped out all the profits and more.
Betis win tonight could have been enough to keep the balance in green but... whatever. I think luck is coming next week: a loss of (less than) 5% after 46 bet and a full week could mean that I'm not so bad at all.
Sunday goal: recover the losses and stay ready for a fresh (and hopefully more lucky) week.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TSA 2012 RECORD (Since Jan. 16th)

23 W - 23 L
-$56.00 ($25 on every bet) / -2.24 Units (out of 46.00 units staked)

Hit rate: 50.00%
Avg. Odds: 2.080
Net ROI: -4.87%

[SlickRick1382]

Bad saturday, wiped out all the profits and more. Betis win tonight could have been enough to keep the balance in green but... whatever. I think luck is coming next week: a loss of (less than) 5% after 46 bet and a full week could mean that I'm not so bad at all. Sunday goal: recover the losses and stay ready for a fresh (and hopefully more lucky) week. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TSA 2012 RECORD (Since Jan. 16th) 23 W - 23 L -$56.00 ($25 on every bet) / -2.24 Units (out of 46.00 units staked) Hit rate: 50.00% Avg. Odds: 2.080 Net ROI: -4.87%

Don't you think you're over doing it? That's a lot of bets for one day. Just my opinion ....

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Don't you think you're over doing it? That's a lot of bets for one day. Just my opinion ....

Absolutely not.
I flatbet so 25 bets=25 units. And it's saturday.
Guys with plenty of experience, like GGG, yesterday have wagered 25/30 units...
During the week, as you can see, I had an avg. of about 3/4 units, while the total avg. of soccer bettors is surely higher.
Everyone has his method. More matches=more possibilities to find an edge for me.
I don't like placing units in midweek just for fun (I'm not saying it's wrong, just my opinion) but on saturday there's a lot of action usually and I like to place more bets.
Someone prefers 5/10 units in one/two/three bets every day, me not.
Don't look at the number, look at the units... I've seen 25/30 units staked on friday by someone. Probably this was over doing it. But, again, everyone has his method...

Ehi, Rick, appreciate your advice, for real.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#46 - San Sebastian Reyes/RSD Alcala (U 2.5) (Spain - Segunda Division B) @1.530

S.S. Reyes is a pretty solid team at home (9 goals conceded in 9 matches), while Alcala hasn't scored in last three matches; away from home RSD is an average team so I don't think they could take a win here.
San Sebastian would win by one or maybe a draw but under seems reasonable, even at these odds.
KO in next 10 minutes.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#48 - Ethnikos Asteras/AEL Kallonis (U 2.5) (Greece - Beta Ethniki) @1.470

Greece is the under-country. Look at the numbers: Ethnikos at home less than a goal scored per game, 0.5 conceded; AEL away one goal scored and less than one conceded.
First two games for Ethnikos in 2012: two 0-0. Last 2011 three games for them: 0-0, 0-0, 1-1. Yes, it's four 0-0 in last five matches (and six for six unders).
Kallonis had not scored more than one goal in a single match since december 10th (and they are on the under in 8 out of 9 last matches).
I don't recommend the under 2, because there are too many probabilities is gonna be a push.
At 2.5 payout seems poor but looking at the numbers not so much.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#49 - Tenerife/Gijon B (U 2.5) (Spain - Segunda Division B) @1.850

A little bit challenging than the first two. Tenerife has a rock-type defense at home (only 5 goals conceded in 9 matches). Difference between these two teams is huge: Tenerife looks like a mid-table Segunda Division (upper league) team but recently the loss against Oviedo has lowered their chances to gain a promotion (spanish system prom/rel from/to 2DB is really tough); what really scares me is a possible blowout. 2-1 also doesn't seems so absurd but I think the under is worth a try.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#50 - Doxa Dramas (+1) vs Aris Thessaloniki (Greece - Super League) @1.926

Usually I don't like AH but I've watched Doxa game last wed/thu and I was so impressed by these guys. They are a Beta Ethniki squad but with a terrific willing to fight. Panathinaikos wasn't able to score a goal against them till'the final minutes of last match.
Problem is they can't score, absolutely. So I'm gonna take Doxa with +1 because I don't think they could win this game but a draw... who knows.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#51 - Panetolikos/Kerkyra (U 2.5) (Greece - Super League) @1.408

Another match with great numbers: Kerkyra managed to score only one goal in 7 away games this season (8 total goals made, less than 0.60 per game, and two of them were at home against poor Doxa) and conceded only 5 far from home.
In last 5 away games Kerkyra went 5 times on under with no goals scored.
Home team has similar numbers (1.0 goal/game at home on avg. and less than 1 conceded).
Good story: the last (and only) over for Kerkyra (on the road) and Panetolikos (at home) was against the same team, Giannina (about 4 months ago).
KO in next 10 minutes.


Unfortunately S.S. won by 1, as expected, but the score is 2-1. First loss of the day.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#52 - Sparta Rotterdam/Dordrecht (O 2.5) (Netherlands - Eerste Divisie) @1.581

6 out 8 time Dordrecht had conceded at least two goals away from home this season and the majority of matches they've played was against teams which now are at the bottom of the table.
Sparta is a good team which can cover the over by itself. I'm pretty sure they'll be able to score at least two goals, let's see if we can hit this one.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#53 - Volendam/Den Bosch (O 2.5) (Netherlands - Eerste Divisie) @1.606

Volendam has something like 3 goals scored/game at home and Den Bosch has recently proved they can score 2 goals on the road, even against top teams like Zwolle or Eindhoven. They've a good defense though, so it's not a lock for many bettors but I like the odds (60%-40%) so I give it a try.
KO in about 15 minutes.


Another loss is coming: Tenerife is coming back but match is already 1-2.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#54 - Groningen vs Heracles Almelo (Netherlands - Erdivise) @2.030

No discussion here, b/c kickoff is in next 10 minutes.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#55 - Novara/AC Milan (U 2.5) (Italy - Serie A) @2.120

I'll keep my eyes on this match because I'm not so sure this is gonna be easy for Milan. Odds are good for me so I'll take the under.
1-1 (just to talk) as possible upset of the day.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#56 - Udinese/Catania (U 2.5) (Italy - Serie A) @1.917

Catania probably will not score here and for Udinese could be enough a 1 or 2 goals lead.
KO in next 15 minutes.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

#57 - Levante/Real Zaragoza (O 2.5) (Spain - Primera Division) @2.210

Good odds for a try here: Levante is probably the most underrated team in La Liga and they have a very good offense. They won three games this season scoring at least three goals at home, and every opponent faced is surely better than Zaragoza.