The Sports Analyst' 2012 Soccer Thread

SlickRick1382 · 01-11-12, 07:51 AM

Welcome to the board and good luck with your selections. I'll be taking a look from time to time ...

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-11-12, 09:13 AM

Thank you Rick!

One pick for this afternoon:

Le Mans vs Lorient (FRA - League Cup) @ 2.83

I like this pick. Too many 'it's gonna be a draw' on this match: Le Mans is a cup-team (and in France we've seen in the past it works) and we can take an home team at a very good price.

southpaw74 · 01-11-12, 11:28 AM

It worries me that they haven't beaten Lorentz in 4 years and have not won a match in their last 5.

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-11-12, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by southpaw74

It worries me that they haven't beaten Lorentz in 4 years and have not won a match in their last 5.

I know but there are some country (IMHO) where the cup is a promiseland, especially a League Cup, where "big" team could rest their starters.
Anyway, we'll see...!

Plus, I add

Lyon vs Lille (FRA - League Cup) @ 3.16

I firmly believe there will be at least one upset in this two games (if a Le Mans W could be called upset) of League Cup.
Lille @ 3.16? Are you kidding me? I'll take it. NOW.

I'm looking also at the big match between City and Liverpool. I'll be back in 30 minutes.

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-11-12, 12:41 PM

Manchester City vs Liverpool (+0.5) (ENG - League Cup) @1.76

A little bit risky but probably it's worth a try.

Lookingtostart · 01-11-12, 01:52 PM

Line steaming towards Liverpool, I took them +.5 @ $1.952 about 12 hours ago. Maybe Man City have even more outs than previously thought?

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-11-12, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by Lookingtostart

Line steaming towards Liverpool, I took them +.5 @ $1.952 about 12 hours ago. Maybe Man City have even more outs than previously thought?

Probably.
Around 1.75/1.80 is an acceptable value for me, at 1.95 is a steal. Nice take Lookingtostart!

Still 0-0 at Le Mans (65').

southpaw74 · 01-11-12, 02:46 PM

Well it wasn't a draw...

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-11-12, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by southpaw74

Well it wasn't a draw...

I've just missed the winner!

Anyway, good start for Liverpool, 0-1 at 15'.

southpaw74 · 01-11-12, 03:16 PM

Liverpool looks good with the penalty kick!

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-11-12, 05:43 PM

A not-so-good first day, here in soccer section.

Le Mans L
Lille L
Liverpool W

TSA Soccer Record Tracker

Overall (W-L): 1-2
Hit Rate: 33.33%
Money Balance ($50 on every bet): -$62.12
ROI: -41.41%

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-12-12, 12:28 PM

Only one play for me today, waiting the weekend.

Academica Coimbra vs Oliveirense (+0.5) @2.300

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-12-12, 06:19 PM

Ouch. 95 minute loss. What a hard pill to swallow. :/

Oliveirense L

TSA Soccer Record Tracker

Overall (W-L): 1-3
Hit Rate: 25.25%
Money Balance ($50 on every bet): -$112.12
ROI: -56.06%
Avg. Odds: 2.513

dxunchuk · 01-13-12, 12:42 AM

good luck for weekend

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-13-12, 01:40 PM

Thank you dxunchunk!

Ok, back to league competitions.
Let's start make some money.

Some very late picks.

Dordrecht vs Telstar @ 4.76
Go Ahead Eagles vs Volendam (+0.5) @ 1.826

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-13-12, 02:38 PM

Nocerina vs Sassuolo (+0.5) @1.455

Line is incredibly high for this match.

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-14-12, 08:48 AM

Italian Serie B

Draw (Albinoleffe vs Cittadella) @3.02
Draw (Gubbio vs Grosseto) @3.03
Draw (Vicenza vs Brescia) @3.00

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-14-12, 10:58 AM

TSA Soccer Record Tracker

Overall (W-L): 3-7
Hit Rate: 30.00%
Money Balance ($50 on every bet): -$188.37
ROI: -37.67%
Avg. Odds: 2.715

1 out of 3 draws, but thanks to the odds I haven't lose money. Baiscally a no play. :/

Looking for something in Roma - Catania. I'll be back soon.

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-14-12, 11:50 AM

Real Madrid is still @1.342, I take it. Don't think Mallorca could repeat Copa del Re performance.
I really don't like the AH in this match, because I'm not sure Real could go over 2 goals (and Mallorca probably could score 1).

Mallorca vs Real Madrid @1.342

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-14-12, 11:20 PM

Closing the day with the W on Real Madrid (not an easy one).

TSA Soccer Record Tracker

Overall (W-L): 4-7
Hit Rate: 36.36%
Money Balance ($50 on every bet): -$171.25
ROI: -31.14%
Avg. Odds: 2.590

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-14-12, 11:28 PM

Lazio vs Atalanta @1.943

I'll go with Lazio on this one. Lazio is not in good shape but Atalanta, very touched by Doni and fixed matches affaire, for me is not a team which could perform so well.
I don't see an upset here and the line is quite good for Lazio.

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-15-12, 07:32 AM

I complete my afternoon picks with

Chievo vs Palermo @4.170
Genoa vs Udinese @2.670
Fiorentina/Lecce (O 2.5) @1.877

I've discussed them in http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-betting/1513207-serie-week-18-q.html

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-15-12, 09:45 AM

Lazio already hit, right now Serie A matches are looking good (except for the Over on Fiorentina/Lecce, very sloppy game).

Checking my book I've found Levante at a very high price.
Yesterday we've had a very strange saturday in Spain with a couple of dogs upsets.
I was really, really tempted to take it @7.190 but finally I checked a couple of my sources on spanish soccer and none of them is gonna playing something on this side.
So I pass it, hoping I'm doing the right thing...

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-16-12, 08:16 AM

Very good. I've closed my first week here on SBR soccer with a loss of $325. :/

Stated that I've finally finished my spreadsheet which I hope could help me in capping games.
Since I'm pretty confident about this new way I'd like to keep a separate record, BUT I'm not the kind of guy who starts new threads for every way of betting he finds or who refuses to have had losing streaks.
So, the -$325 will be kept forever as a reminder on how bad I am.

But, just for tracking, I'll keep a fresh soccer record.
I've worked at this spreadsheet for almost a year, several hours a day and testing it on recent games gave me nice results but, as ever, I don't know if I'll be lucky also in the future.

For tracking purpose I start with a fully dedicated bankroll of $1000.
In terms of money management I decided to assign a 2.5% of my starting bankroll for every bet. I was really thinking about the possibility to lower it at 2.0% but since I start with $1000 a 2.5% means $25 which it seems a fair amount for me.
So basically I have 40 units in my pocket: if I'll go under 40 units I'll stop my capping thread.

All the picks are value selections, so you'll never see me taking Real Madrid or Barcelona @1.10 just to improve my record.
80/85% are ML picks, 15/20% are O/U. No AH or other picks for me.
Absolutely no parlays, just single bets.
Odds (based on my trial tracking) should be around 2.00 (probably 1.95).

My target is to hit around 55% of my bets in order to 1. keep the balance untouched and 2. make some profit.

I'll try as possible to post the picks about 2/3 hours before the game, in order to get a good value before the up&down of the line immediately before the match.
I'll also try to explain my selections to give the (few) readers of this thread another (hopefully useful) point of view on matches of the day.

Cheers. TSA.

dacs · 01-16-12, 09:07 AM

Sounds good. Keep it up.

GGG · 01-16-12, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by TheSportsAnalyst

Very good. I've closed my first week here on SBR soccer with a loss of $325. :/

Stated that I've finally finished my spreadsheet which I hope could help me in capping games.
Since I'm pretty confident about this new way I'd like to keep a separate record, BUT I'm not the kind of guy who starts new threads for every way of betting he finds or who refuses to have had losing streaks.
So, the -$325 will be kept forever as a reminder on how bad I am.

But, just for tracking, I'll keep a fresh soccer record.
I've worked at this spreadsheet for almost a year, several hours a day and testing it on recent games gave me nice results but, as ever, I don't know if I'll be lucky also in the future.

For tracking purpose I start with a fully dedicated bankroll of $1000.
In terms of money management I decided to assign a 2.5% of my starting bankroll for every bet. I was really thinking about the possibility to lower it at 2.0% but since I start with $1000 a 2.5% means $25 which it seems a fair amount for me.
So basically I have 40 units in my pocket: if I'll go under 40 units I'll stop my capping thread.

All the picks are value selections, so you'll never see me taking Real Madrid or Barcelona @1.10 just to improve my record.
80/85% are ML picks, 15/20% are O/U. No AH or other picks for me.
Absolutely no parlays, just single bets.
Odds (based on my trial tracking) should be around 2.00 (probably 1.95).

My target is to hit around 55% of my bets in order to 1. keep the balance untouched and 2. make some profit.

I'll try as possible to post the picks about 2/3 hours before the game, in order to get a good value before the up&down of the line immediately before the match.
I'll also try to explain my selections to give the (few) readers of this thread another (hopefully useful) point of view on matches of the day.

Cheers. TSA.

I don't know if you're new to sportsbetting but I wouldnt advice flatbetting.
You could make your own equations to determine which stake you should be betting on each bet, a equation customized to your betting style. You need a good amount of previous betting stats to design a equation that will work for your type of betting though.
There's also the kelly equation which is pretty usefull for people who are leaving the flatbetting.
You can get a lot more profit by not using flatbetting.

The Kelly Equation.
Chance * Allowed Risk (% of total bankroll)* Betvalue = % Of your bankroll you should stake on that bet.
Example: You have Manchester United - Manchester City. You determine that Manchester United have a 50% of winning the match. The odds are at 2.10, giving you a betvalue of 105.
You can always change the risk factor depending on how aggresive you wanna be betting.

(50% Winning Chance)*(0.3% Allowed Bankroll Risk)*(105 Betvalue)
0.5*0.03*105 = 1.575% of your bankroll should be bet on this bet.

It's a very simple equation but it really works if you're making estimates on the chance your bet have for a win.
Making a equation that is specially customized for your own betting style is of course the best. But if you do not have the needed stats for that you can get a lot out of the Kelly equation.
Unit staking is some of the most important in the betting world (imo) so you should really look into this. Flatbetting wont get you a maximum profit out of your bets.

manutd19 · 01-16-12, 10:11 AM

Today?

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-16-12, 10:15 AM

Yes GGG, I'm not new. I'm deep in betting and in the recent past I've tried to use variable stakes in USA Sports with good results, but, as you said, you need a huge amount of stats.
For USA sports I've a ton of spreadsheet and I've used in the past an equation similar to Kelly (I used the %, the ROI, the units, the number of bet, everything I thought could help to improve my money management).
For soccer actually I don't have the right amount of stats (we're talking about years of tracking IMHO) to do the same thing.
I'll try flatbetting for this new spreadsheet because I'll bet only where I'll find a huge value, but as I'll progress and collect detailed stats (and splits) I'll consider for sure a different way to use the units.

Right now it's a kind of experiment to see if my spreadsheet (added to my knowldege) could perform in any way.
If I'll see results are good enough to start a very complex money management system I'll do it without doubts.

But, again, thanks for the advice.

GGG · 01-16-12, 10:22 AM

Yeah. You really need a lot of stats for making your own equation.
I used years of stats for mine but I'm still changing the equation as I move on and I still feel I'm a bit away from the perfect equation. It really requires some fine tuning but when you hit that golden spot you're gonna get max profit out of your bets.
Since I launched my own equation I saw a rise of 3-5% of profit. So it's usefull for sure.

Good luck with your betting.

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-16-12, 10:36 AM

Definitely, in betting 3-5% could be the difference between a loser and a winner or between a quite good punter and a very good one.

Thank you and GL (I'll follow your thread for sure).

So, it's time to start.

#1 Kayserispor vs Gaziantepspor (Turkey / Super Lig) @2.230

I'll start with a tough game: Gaziantep is a really hard team to fight, despite they were in relegation zone, but Kayserispor is a good team, even if they are not performing well recently.
I really don't see an upset here. For me the key is Gaziantep defense: if Kayser will find the way to score the match is probably over. Gaziantep could take a draw here but with this line I definitely go with Kayserispor.

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-16-12, 12:16 PM

#2 Pescara/Hellas Verona (U 2.5) (Italy / Serie B) @2.400

Keep your eyes on this game guys. In Pescara the weather has been very unusual (light snow in the morning) and the air is freezing. I really think this could be a mismatch of bookies info because many friends of mine in Pescara are saying that Verona should have a very defensive approach and Pescara's forwards could struggle with the weather. At 2.40 over 2 hours before the game it worth a wager.

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-16-12, 12:37 PM

#3 Wigan Athletic vs Manchester City (England / Premier League) @1.388

Very very borderline bet but the line is very high yet. Week full of upsets in England, though, so think carefully about this game: City for me is just the best team in the matchup and Wigan is sometimes overrated (and they have too many variable results this year).
It's a controversial pick, I know, b/c of injuries Citizien suffered recently, but they have failed in both League and FA Cup, I really think they are too prepared for this match to fail again.

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-16-12, 05:04 PM

Kayserispor 1-1 L (-$25.00)
Pescara 3-1 L (-$25.00)
Manchester City 1-0 W (+$9.70)

Day Total: 1 W - 2 L / -$40.30

Not the start I'm dreaming of.
Kayserispor was'nt able to maintain the advantage and conceded Gaziantepspor a well deserved draw.
Pescara was really too strong for Verona. On the 1-1 I was sure the game is trending over maybe 3 goals, because Pescara's strikers are absolutely hot this night, even with this cold weather.
Manchester got its W but it was a really hard one, as I supposed. But at least it cashed in.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TSA 2012 RECORD (Since Jan. 16th)

1 W - 2 L
- $40.30 ($25 on every bet)
Hit rate: 33.33%
Net ROI: -53.73%

TheSportsAnalyst · 01-17-12, 01:06 PM

#4 Hayes & Yeading FC/Ebbsfleet United (O 2.5) (England - Blue Square Premier) @1.676

#5 Milwall vs Dagenham & Redbridge (England - FA Cup) @1.510

#6 Ballymena United/Glentoran FC (O 2.5) (Northern Ireland - IFA Premiership) @1.588