Wednesday's [12/14] Ninja Plays

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #1
    Wednesday's [12/14] Ninja Plays
    My own advice on the Europa League today, make sure you bet on matches that have something on the line. No need with the large slate to waste time on a match between two eliminated squads IMO where you're simply guessing whether either team will care about playing. Good luck gents.


    Europa League

    Parlay: Lazio + Fulham [-114]
    Lazio hosts group leaders Sporting CP today with a win needed to guarantee qualification to the next round. The Italian side could still qualify depending on Vaslui's result with Zurich today, but should want to take care of business on their own. Sporting has nothing to play for here as they are firmly set to advance at the top of this group after winning four of five group matches. Fulham can clinch a spot in the KO stages with a win at home today against group bottom feeders, Odense. With Wisla Krakow hosting Twente who are already guaranteed top of the group, Fulham can't rely on Twente to necessarily win or take a point that would give Fulham advancement regardless of their outcome. Therefore, I think Fulham heads in looking for the win. Odense have dropped four straight in this group after winning against Wisla Krakow in the opening match. Fulham should be confident here after beating this squad 2-0 on the road already. They will miss goal scorer Andy Johnson from that match, but still have good quality here to get the win.

    Dynamo Kiev-Maccabi Tel Aviv Over 2.5/3 [-121]
    Kiev has to win and win big today and the hope Besiktas falls at home to a 2nd string Stoke City side. Pretty unlikely, but this should be a team playing with urgency up against a Tel Aviv side that has yielded 14 goals in five group stage matches. The only match where Tel Aviv did not yield multiple goals was the 1st meeting with Kiev at home. The plus is that Tel Aviv scored in four of the five group matches. I don't think Tel Aviv roll over here as they have a newly promoted manager looking to instill confidence in this squad, so I think they will give 100% and that could mean they add a goal to the mix.

    Draw Project
    Zurich-Vaslui +240
    Maccabi Haifa-Shalke +263
  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #2
    Also going to add ...

    [Pan Arab Games] Sudan-Jordan Over 2 [-117]
    Comment
    • onacloud
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 10-14-10
      • 5360

      #3
      Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
      Also going to add ...

      [Pan Arab Games] Sudan-Jordan Over 2 [-117]
      0-0 through 20 min firstrow has a link for anyone who is on this
      Comment
      • EaglesPhan36
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 12-06-06
        • 71662

        #4
        That match sucked. Any chance of goals really got fawked with the red card around 55th minute. Silly Pan Arabs.
        Comment
        • wardwins
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 09-21-10
          • 728

          #5
          In the tel Avia game my book has 3 -120 is this a go? Thanks
          Comment
          • EaglesPhan36
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 12-06-06
            • 71662

            #6
            If you think that the o2.5 would hit, then three at worst is going to give you a push. Kiev needs a lot of goals today ... so anything is possible and Tel Aviv's D has been pretty poor. As with all Europa League bets, don't go overboard because crazy things happen in the EL all the time and there's a chance if they don't get out and get a lead in the 1st half that the over may not have a chance - especially if they are scoreboard watching Besiktas-Stoke. Then again, if Kiev sulks because they don't think they can advance, Tel Aviv might score more, so the variables are endless.
            Comment
            • TheAntFather
              SBR MVP
              • 03-14-11
              • 3021

              #7
              GL today Eagles.
              Comment
              • wardwins
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 09-21-10
                • 728

                #8
                2-0 already unreal thanks
                Comment
                • TheAntFather
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-14-11
                  • 3021

                  #9
                  2-2 in the 62nd minute!!!
                  Comment
                  • TheAntFather
                    SBR MVP
                    • 03-14-11
                    • 3021

                    #10
                    3-3 in the 80th minute!!! Wow! One of the easiest cashes I had in a while.
                    Comment
                    • The Special One
                      Restricted User
                      • 01-08-11
                      • 3972

                      #11
                      Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                      If you think that the o2.5 would hit, then three at worst is going to give you a push. Kiev needs a lot of goals today ... so anything is possible and Tel Aviv's D has been pretty poor. As with all Europa League bets, don't go overboard because crazy things happen in the EL all the time and there's a chance if they don't get out and get a lead in the 1st half that the over may not have a chance - especially if they are scoreboard watching Besiktas-Stoke. Then again, if Kiev sulks because they don't think they can advance, Tel Aviv might score more, so the variables are endless.
                      last sentence was the answer to the game today... good call
                      Comment
                      • EaglesPhan36
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 12-06-06
                        • 71662

                        #12
                        Lookin' good on the parlay with Fulham in command. If Haifa can knot up their match, would be a lovely day. If not, a decent day still.

                        Kinda tough for Haifa since the lone goal was an own goal.
                        Comment
                        • EaglesPhan36
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 12-06-06
                          • 71662

                          #13
                          Don't make this interesting you limey bastards.
                          Comment
                          • MTek
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-18-08
                            • 1381

                            #14
                            Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                            Don't make this interesting you limey bastards.
                            you know it HAS to become interesting
                            Comment
                            • EaglesPhan36
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 12-06-06
                              • 71662

                              #15
                              No luck with the draws today.
                              Comment
                              • richie360
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 03-30-11
                                • 680

                                #16
                                Since going 2-0 up Fulham have been pathetic!
                                Comment
                                • onacloud
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 10-14-10
                                  • 5360

                                  #17
                                  are you fukkin kidding me!
                                  Comment
                                  • onacloud
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 10-14-10
                                    • 5360

                                    #18
                                    why didn't they shoot game wouldve been over instead they run down and score

                                    fukk me today!
                                    Comment
                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 12-06-06
                                      • 71662

                                      #19
                                      Wow.
                                      Comment
                                      • tcarn01
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 10-27-09
                                        • 1993

                                        #20
                                        unbelievalble....
                                        Comment
                                        • EaglesPhan36
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 12-06-06
                                          • 71662

                                          #21
                                          I thought hard about hedging, but ****. Blowing a two goal lead at home to a team that has nothing to accomplish, nice one.
                                          Comment
                                          • onacloud
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 10-14-10
                                            • 5360

                                            #22
                                            It was a good bet that should've never happened my jaw literally dropped and I sat in silence
                                            Comment
                                            • richie360
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 03-30-11
                                              • 680

                                              #23
                                              If Fulham kept the same mentality as the first half they would have destroyed Odense, instead they got into the mode of wasting time stupidly early!! I had over 3.5 goals expecting Fulham 3-1 or 4-0, sorry for you guys who had Fulham money line they should be ashamed of themselves!!!
                                              Comment
                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 12-06-06
                                                • 71662

                                                #24
                                                I knew it wasn't going to be easy in the end which is why I parlayed the money line and didn't touch the handicap, but damn that one was one of the worst beats in a while for me in soccer. Also another reason why I don't like taking parlays much.
                                                Comment
                                                • shage
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 01-10-10
                                                  • 337

                                                  #25
                                                  Stoppage in this game was lopsided 1st half 0 2nd have 4min with less goals and less injury time
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Clockwork
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 12-11-11
                                                    • 75

                                                    #26
                                                    how many units do you put on your draw project and how many have u lost
                                                    Comment
                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                      • 71662

                                                      #27
                                                      I usually bet 0.5 unit on both draws and the other plays I make on a day are for a unit. That way normally if I'm making say 3 or 4 soccer wagers with two draws included - if both draws lose, there's still potential to break even or profit if the other bets hit. Haven't back tracked to last week at the moment, but it's probably hitting 25-30% I would guess .. defiinitely have not quite broken even. Starting with three days I think were I hit a draw a day and then went 3-4 where I think maybe one out of eight hit. This week, think I split Monday's draws and then 0-2 yesterday.

                                                      As I said with this project. My goal is playing two per day if it makes sense. So in a given week, that's probably 14 draws taken. Let's say the average draw is around +215 or so. So you'd be risking 7 units on the 14 draws combined .. if you hit four at around that price, you're up slightly below even. If you hit five, you're going to be just above even.

                                                      Definitely not for everyone, but trying to hit 50% on two picks has always seemed a decent thing to try. May or may not be profitable in the long run, but something I have been wanting to try consistently over a period.
                                                      Comment
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