Bundesliga

[TomJSports]

I need to start having more faith in Bayern. That was an incredible match for them. I, too, thought Cissé would get one, but Bayern extended their clean sheet streak. Gladbach beat Lautern in a low-scoring game, as expected. Hoffenheim took it to Mainz on the road. VfB continued their home dominance against H96; wish I'd had more faith in that streak beforehand. Bremen took down Hamburg at home, but didn't run up the score like other Hamburg opponents. But the big shocker, of course was Hertha Berlin getting the win over BVB. They performed quite well in the second half, scoring two goals and only surrending one late. This team of Bayern castoffs looks pretty good coming off their second win. But BVB flat out didn't play like they could, and just maybe they were looking ahead to their Tuesday matchup with Arsenal.

OT @ escou: I thought Villarreal would come out to win, but going down a man early hindered that greatly. They ended up getting two goals a man down, but unfortunately surrendered two. I strongly think they would've won if they gave that effort at even strength.

[TomJSports]

That Dortmund loss, I still can't get bloody Hertha Berlin winning out of my head. (shakeshead)

[TomJSports]

Decent read in English on the Schalke-Wolves matchup. Hleb, Hitzlsperger, and Chris probably won't see the field for the Wolves, along with losing Kjaer and Diego, as decado mentioned. Also, Kyrgiakos' first start wasn't too hot. I probably will end up going with the road team, Schalke in this one, along with the over. Rangnick is also flirting with the idea of giving Pukki some time with Schalke, as well.

[TomJSports]

Well, as I posted, I like the over in both matches on the day. And I'm pretty sure Schalke gets a road victory, and think Köln's confidence and form carries them to a win, but I still think this could be a draw. Also, for a 2.Bundesliga play, 1860 Munich's road play has been rubbish, and St. Pauli has been a sturdy side eyeing promotion. I like St. Pauli to get the win.

[escou]

The over looks really good in the St. Pauli game

[TomJSports]

Very good call on that 4-2

[Daveyboy]

Damn Dortmund and Schalke sucked

[TomJSports]

Damn Dortmund and Schalke sucked

I was really down on Schalke after a fixture or two and the first Helsinki match. It started to look like they found form for a bit, but they were pretty damn bad. I'm very interested to see what team shows up in Romania on Thursday.

Dortmund losing at home to Hertha Berlin, however, that's a real head scratcher. Again, interested in seeing what team shows up against Arsenal tonight.

[Daveyboy]

I was really down on Schalke after a fixture or two and the first Helsinki match. It started to look like they found form for a bit, but they were pretty damn bad. I'm very interested to see what team shows up in Romania on Thursday. Dortmund losing at home to Hertha Berlin, however, that's a real head scratcher. Again, interested in seeing what team shows up against Arsenal tonight.

I was the same with Schalke. Looks like they're going to be an unpredictable one this season. Not rating Fahrmann in goal or Fuchs the new left back. Defense not looking good.

Mario Gotze's back this evening so I'm expecting a home win

[TomJSports]

Ha ha, Hamburg is pissed off. They just got a 7-0 friendly win. Granted, against Concordia.

[TomJSports]

Chelsea was completely off form today and still beat Bayer 2-0. I'm really ambivalent on Leverkusen's chances this year.

Dortmund should've won today, for sure. Arsenal wasn't all that great. Just thankful BVB sneaked out that draw at the end.

[TomJSports]

Well aside from Bayern, it was some bad continental play for the Bundesliga squads, after H96 and Schalke played to a pair of scoreless draws. I will say, whatever the lineups are in Bayern vs. Schalke, I am really liking Bayern on the road.

As for tomorrow's main event, I really like VfB on the road in Freiburg. Freiburg has a 1-2 loss to Mainz, and a 3-0 trouncing of the Wolves at home this year. And despite last weeks 7-0 loss against Bayern, they're not really pushovers and proved last year to be a solid mid-tier side. VfB isn't the team they were a couple of years ago, but they're still a tough side. I also liked what I saw against Hannover, even though H96 is a hurting squad. VfB also has to remember the 2-1 defeat in Freiburg and 1-0 defeat in Stuttgart. I think VfB comes off a solid win ready to win a derby match, and Freiburg (though determined not to) comes out a bit flat following the Bayern loss.

An interesting 2.Bundesliga play is Ingolstadt. I see that Ingolstadt has a decent record at home and bad on the road. Dynamo has a great record at home and bad on the road. So, obviously, following trends, you go with the home Ingolstadt. Subašić did have a stellar debut for Dynamo though. Needless to say, I'm not 100% sold on this one. Over, maybe, because both teams have been on both sides of blowouts already in this young season. And Ingolstadt is a decent team with their backs against the cellar and are at home.

[beeps220]

Really appreciate the Bundesliga writeups, great info

[TomJSports]

No worries, I actually didn't end up playing any today. And Ingolstadt and Eintracht Frankfurt both won...covered...and hit the over.

[TomJSports]

Oh sweet gracious, didn't play and Stuttgart and the over both hit!!

[TomJSports]

Got longwinded.

Köln at Bayer Leverkusen: The Rhineland Derby has been been incredibly one-sided. Bayer spent 15 matches without letting Köln get a result. Köln broke it in April with a 2-0 win, at home, but this one is on Leverkusen's grounds. Köln is also going to start their fourth or fifth defense of the year already because nothing has worked, as they've allowed 2.66 a game. The attack of Schürrle, Sam, and Derdiyok will be too much for them, and Kießling is lurking on the bench. I also don't like Köln to get behind the solid defense of Bayer and Leno's great goalkeeping. Bayer's also stinging from that horrible game at Chelsea, and will follow it well. Bayer -1 is reasonable, but o3 may be a smidge too much to hope for. If I was confident in Podo against a solid Bayer squad, maybe.

Gladbach at Hamburg: This is a classic trap game. Gladbach is overperforming and Hamburg is underperforming. Gladbach, should win this, but on the injury front, they may be without de Carmago, Hanke, and young keeper ter Stegen. Drobný has been hung out to dry by his Hamburg defense, which has allowed 16 in 5. Guerrero is probably out, but Son will be back, which is a plus for Hamburg. So I like Hamburg to get a goal and Gladbach to get a couple. I think the over 2.75 is a very solid play, as well as both to score. I would lean Gladbach, just because of that Hamburg defense. Hamburg has been focusing a tonne in practise, but until I see it in a game, I don't buy it. Gladbach at ~2.0 looks nice.

Werder Bremen at Nürnberg: I also like the visitors in this match. Nürnberg has a had a strong start to the season, but have a massive injury list: Daniel Didavi, Per Nilsson, Raphael Schäfer and Patrick Rakovsky. And then you add rising star striker Tomáš Pekhart being suspended, and it looks ugly for the Franconian boys. Marin may or may not be out as playmaker for Werder, but I like his stand-in, Ekici. PK is a great play for Werder, but I would just go ahead and put it to win. I'm not a huge fan of the over, especially at three. I may play the under, but will likely leave o/u alone.

Wolfsburg at Hoffenheim: Both teams are beseiged by injuries at the moment, which makes this very tough to call. Hleb is also still not match fit. The Wolves' defense is ugly when healthy, and is hit by injuries and new additions. But they could pop in a couple. Same with Hoffenheim. Just a tough game to call between two patchwork squads. If anything, both to score and the over at 2.75 is solid odds. Midtier Bundesliga matches seem to turn into goalfests.

Augsburg at Hertha Berlin: I'm starting to really like this squad of Bayern castoffs that Hertha has. That said, I would like to see Augsburg get their first Bundesliga win. However, Hertha is flying high after beating VfB and then shocking BVB in Dortmund. Ramos and Ebert probably won't hit the field for Hertha, but Kobiashvilli is back. Still a net loss for Hertha though. Augsberg is still down Verhaegh, Ndjeng, and Bah, and just had Hain and Sinkala injured in practise. So it doesn't look good for the Bavarians. In 2.Bundesliga, Hertha had a 2-1 win at home and the game in Ausberg was a 1-1 draw. Still, with current form, I've got to like Hertha to win, at home, maybe take the -1, but I don't know if a 2 goal win is certain. And with last year's games as examples, along with recent results, over/under is too tough to call.

Mainz at Lautern: I think this may be the best matchup in the Rhinelan-Pfalz derby, but will be the toughest to call. When Lautern is involved, you typically go with the under. (4/5 were under 2.5, except the Bayern game, which was a 3-0 loss.) Mainz, however, tends to go the other way 2 of 5 under 2.5 with one 3 goal game. That said, both teams are in poor form and this is a derby game, so it could explode in goals between two teams with lots to prove to their rivals and to the Bundesliga. That said, last season, you're looking at a 2-1 Mainz victory at Mainz home ground and a 1-0 Mainz victory at Lautern. Mainz has the better squad for sure, but anything goes in a derby. I won't be touching this one, but if I did maybe small on Mainz PK or Mainz to win. Lautern needs this though.

[birdmanweezy]

good write-ups tom

[EaglesPhan36]

Indeed. Great info as always. Hope you kill it.

[cogiditopapa]

Thanks for the time you take to write this golden info, I am on board with hertha -1 and Leverkusen -1. GL

[TomJSports]

Thanks for the kind words. I made six plays, which is always scary, but I like what I see this week. And I hope I'm not chasing the fact I neglected to play yesterday. Tomorrow's matches get a little tougher to call. Schalke, by all means, should actually show up against Bayern, and H96 and BVB both will want to improve on subpar performances. Probably over in Schalke/Bayern will be my only play, but even that is questionable with Neuer's streak, even though his old mates will want to get the win on him. Crazy to think he joined Schalke as a five-year old and was a member for 80% of his life.

[TomJSports]

Gladbach has ter Stegen and de Carmago starting, Henke didn't dress. Looks good for for the foals.

[TomJSports]

Hmmmm, Hamburg just has Petrić out there instead of two attackers, Son's on the bench, Guerrero didn't dress. I'm interested to see if this formation keeps less goals from going in; have to say I hope not!

[Vaughany]

The over in Hoffenheim/Wolfsburg match is play of the wknd for me, looking good so far, 2-0 after 33 minutes

[Vaughany]

[TomJSports]

The over in Hoffenheim/Wolfsburg match is play of the wknd for me, looking good so far, 2-0 after 33 minutes

Whenever evenly matched mid-tier Bundesliga teams get together, it's not a low scoring 1-0, 1-1 effort. It is most often a 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, 2-2 type match. I don't know what it is. Wish I played in in the Mainz/Lautern match, too.

[TomJSports]

Köln at Bayer Leverkusen, 4-1: If anyone saw this coming, take a bow. Bayer's last two results are the 2-0 loss to Chelsea in England and this 4-1 loss to cellar dwellers Köln; not looking pretty. But match that patchwork defense against Bayer's attack, and the Köln attack against Leno and the Bayer defense, you don't expect this result. And while anything can go in a derby, Bayer was 10-1-1 at home in their last 12 against Köln. Did not see this coming, and would've made the same play. Great result for the Billy Goats though.

Gladbach at Hamburg, 1-0: Hamburg finally showed that they can play defense, but then have their offense lie dormant. Now if they can play defense multiple weeks in a row and maybe score some, maybe they're back. Gladbach is looking like a solid squad and if they keep this up look like they'll surely qualify for European competitions.

Werder Bremen at Nürnberg, 1-1: Could've played the under and had it hit, but wasn't totally confident. Was more confident in the Werder win, so I didn't play the PK. Was a mistake, especially with road teams in Bundesliga, but Werder had been looking real good this year.

Wolfsburg at Hoffenheim, 1-3: Would've leaned Hoffenheim, but these matches are tough to call; I thought the draw was more likely. But one things for sure, the over was going to hit after Hoffenheim's quick start.

Augsburg at Hertha Berlin, 2-2: I bought into the Hertha hype and maybe I shouldn't have played them as hard, or at least not with the goal. Augsberg put up a formidable performance though, so good for the Bavarians.

Mainz at Lautern, 1-3: Should've stuck with the "Midtier Bundesliga matches seem to turn into goalfests" theory here, but oh well. Knew Lautern really needed this one, but didn't expect a two goal victory in this derby. Lautern's going to keep needing to do this to avoid relegation.

[beeps220]

Best of Luck tomorrow Tom, let's have a great day and do some damage

[TomJSports]

I don't really like any plays in 1.Bundesliga tomorrow, I'll say why. I may play my leans, but I'm not certain. However, I love two plays in 2.Bundesliga: 1860/FSV over and Fürth over Aachen.

2.Bundesliga:

Bochum v. Paderborn: Bochum has the better squad, but has been underperforming drastically after making the promotion playoffs last year. They are also at home, so I like them to win, but probably not enough to play it. Last year, Bochum had a 3-0 win at home and a 0-0 draw on the road against Paderborn. Bochum's last three were 2-1 A, 4-1 H, 2-1 A losses. Paderborn's last two were scoreless draws and the one before was a 2-1 road win against Dynamo Dresden. So, it's a little tough to call, especially over/under. I like Bochum PK or Bochum to win, but likely won't play it.

1860 v. FSV Frankfurt: I absolutely love the over in this thanks to 1860 Munich. They have had 4 or more aggregate goals in six of seven games and 3 goals in the seventh. At home this year, they are averaging 3 for. FSV Frankfurt started off the season low scoring, but was 1-1, 4-0 W, 4-0 L in their last three. Last year, in Munich, they met to a 3-3 draw, and in Frankfurt a 2-1 score. I like goals galore in this one, and with 1860 at home, they're 3-0-0 with 12-2 in goals. I probably will put something on 1860 -1, which they have two wins and a push at home. But again, love the over in this one.

Aachen v. Fürth: Fürth is at the top of the standings and Aachen is at the bottom. Seeing Fürth at ~EV is fantasic, even with this game in Aachen. Reason being, the two matches last year were 1-1 (at Fürth) and 2-2 (at Aachen). But this year, Aachen has scored one goal and has not scored in their last four. Fürth has won their last six and scored nine in their last three. Fürth probably won't play their best squad, however they will play enough to win, as they really want promotion this year. I would eye the over two, but Aachen has been in three straight scoreless games, so maybe the under if anything. But for sure on Fürth.

1.Bundesliga:

Schalke v. Bayern: I know I should have much more faith in my Bayern boys, but simple fact is Schalke won 2-0 in this situation last year and this year the intangible is playing against their keeper of 20 years, Neuer. Schalke is coming from 'the middle of no where' (aka Cluj-Napoca, which is actually really nice) back to Gelsenkirchen for a matchup with rivals Bayern. Now Schalke isn't the team they were for years, as evidenced by last years poor season and the only reason they're in continental play was a 'lucky' run to the domestic cup. And when you look up and down that roster, it pales in comparison to Bayern's. But Schalke shows up to play Bayern, and especially at home. You throw in the Neuer component, and it makes it tough to call. Schalke knows Neuer's tendencies from years in practise, but can they get by Bayern's defense? Will Bayern lay it on Fährmann, who has a slight ankle injury? All in all, Schalke shows up, but I put something small on Bayern, just because. I also know these matches can be goalfests, and put something small on the over. But too many intangibles in my opinion to play it big.

Hannover 96 v. Dortmund: H96 and BVB are coming off of embarrassing domestic losses to Stuttgart and Hertha Berlin respectively. And both are coming off of home draws in continental play. Hannover is pretty healthy with only Abdellaoue looking to be back out of the lineup after tweaking his hamstring against Standard. BVB is missing a slew of midfielders and goal-scoring potential with Bender injured and Götze & Kehl suspended, so with those absences, I don't know how much you can put on the 4-0 win at Hannover and 4-1 win at Dortmund for BVB. This one becomes tough for me to call, but I'd lean toward an Hannover win or draw and it's tough to tell if the absences will lead to a lot of Hannover goals and not a lot for Dortmund, or just a more pensive style for both squads, with Dortmund dictating.

So, as I said, a little tough with the 1.Bundesliga games. Hopefully you make some good picks! Good luck!

[TomJSports]

Ehh, ended up putting small plays on Hannover and Bayern -1.

[decado]

i took the over in aachen/fürth because i'm sure aachen will change some things after sacking their coach, so they will be playing more offensively.

[TomJSports]

Definitely interested in seeing how the new coach works out. Isn't this the first post-Hyballa match? I still like Fürth, but you probably have a point with the over.

[Vaughany]

Whenever evenly matched mid-tier Bundesliga teams get together, it's not a low scoring 1-0, 1-1 effort. It is most often a 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, 2-2 type match. I don't know what it is. Wish I played in in the Mainz/Lautern match, too.

Yeah I noticed tht trend a few weeks ago, and is why im paying more attention to Bundesliga now. Seems to be a lot of 2-2 and 3-1s

[decado]

Yeah I noticed tht trend a few weeks ago, and is why im paying more attention to Bundesliga now. Seems to be a lot of 2-2 and 3-1s

bundesliga is a good over league.

last season, one could usually play over in all matches per game week and end up with a profitable week, with exceptions of course. this could happen again this season

[yogohama]

WOW what a Hannover game!

2 goals in 2 minutes for Hannover in the last 5 minutes of the game!

[Wiesnak]

WOW what a Hannover game! 2 goals in 2 minutes for Hannover in the last 5 minutes of the game!

FIX