Bundesliga

[TomJSports]

Braunschweig at Fürth - First off, if you have never had good Braunschweiger, do yourself a favour and go to your local deli, get some, and enjoy. I think Kahn's makes a very good version in the States. At any rate, the football team representing Braunschweig has been a very difficult out for many teams, despite spending the last four years in 3.Liga. They defeated top third sides 1860 and St. Pauli, 3-1 and 1-0, and drew with Düsseldorf 1-1, all at home. At Paderborn, they performed admirably, losing just 1-0. Braunschweig's only poor performance was the 0-3 loss to Eintracht Frankfurt at home. So against top third squads, which Fürth is, they are 2-1-2, 2-1-1 at home and 0-0-1 on the road. They have been a consistently good defensive squad on the road, nailing the under 80% of the time (66.7% overall) and have 40% clean sheets on the road, as well (25% overall). Unfortunately, on the road Braunschweig is also a poor scorer with failing to score in 40% of road matches (33.3% overall). That also doesn't match well with Fürth's fantastic defense that has completely shut out opponents in 8 of 12 matches. Both teams are coming in great health and have their top squads to choose from, so you have to go strictly by mathematics and who has the better squad, which Fürth wins on both accounts. Fürth is 50/50 on o/u, so I would think judging by Braunschweig, this hits the under. Braunschweig may be coming back to earth after losing 2-0 to Dresden, and Fürth is coming off of a 2-0 win at Cottbuss, and their last two home matches were 2-0 victories. 2-0 seems to be the score of this one. But a 1-0 Fürth victory, or Braunschweig sneaking out a 1-1, or 0-0 draw against a superior opponent wouldn't surprise me. Nor would Fürth exploding for a 3-0, 4-0 win. That said, the safest plays are on Fürth and the under. Live bettors should note that Fürth has only allowed one first half goal all year and Braunschweig is a first half team, scoring 2/3 of their goals before half. So if Fürth holds them off before half, a Fürth win should be a safe bet. Also with Fürth's statistics, a Fürth HT/Fürth FT bet is a solid proposition. Depending on odds, Fürth -1 and Fürth -0.75 are solid plays, currently (+125 and -112 at 5d).


My play of the day, however, is Fürth -1.

[Daveyboy]

Hannover at Gladbach – The big story is how H96 will come off their big win against Bayern and subsequent DFB Pokal disappointment. And Gladbach has been in poor form going 0-1-2 in their last three, with only one of those at home. This leaves it a tough to call match. If you look at the past twelve matches between these two squads, it remains tough to call. H96 is 8-0-4 with 26 goals for and 14 against, and the over/under being precisely 50/50. However this season, Gladbach is hitting the under 80% of the team, scored in 100% of their home matches, and Hannover has just 2 road goals on the year. Gladbach is just missing de Camago for the match, where as H96 is missing Pinto, Cherundolo, Hauger, and Sobiech. This is a tough to call match, but seems to point to a low scoring Gladbach win, maybe a draw.

Nürnberg at Bayern – With Bayern coming in quite rested (a lot of tip players didn't play in the Pokal match) and angry after the H96 loss, I fully expect this derby to go like it often does: heavily in favour of Bayern. Okay, that's an overstatement, as Nürnberg is 'only' 0-3-3 recently in the derby and has scored 4 goals to Bayern's 11. However, Bayern has been steamrolling opponents at home, 19-1, and should continue in this match against a Nürnberg 0-3-2 in their last five. Bayern is pretty healthy and Robben and Boateng are resting. However Nürnberg is a beat up squad and that does not bode well. Over 3.5 is a hefty proposition as 3-0 is a solid Bayern trouncing, and Neuer should get back to putting up clean sheets. I really like Bayern -2, though.

Hoffenheim at Schalke – Schalke remains to be a tough team to call in domestics, continentals, or cups. And Hoffenheim is always a strong squad. This young season, Hoffenheim is an under squad and Schalke is an over squad. In the last six matches between the two, a staggering five have been under 2.5. Hoffenheim is also a solid 3-2-1 in those matches, with a 2-0-1 record in Gelsenkirchen. Both teams are coming in pretty healthy. In goal, it'll be interesting to watch for both teams. Timo Hildebrand may get his first action as a Schalke keeper and Tom Starke may be out for Hoffenheim with a concussion. But even with the lineups being settled, this match is way too tough to call. Best play would be the under, but I could see this going absolutely any way.

Dortmund at Stuttgart – BVB continues to be quite like Schalke in being unpredictable. However, they've been doing much better lately with 4 straight Bundesliga wins and a win against Dresden in the DFB Pokal, but poor showings in Greece and France. VfB, has been dong pretty well and is sitting at a surprising fifth in the Bundesliga. In the last 14 matches between the two, BVB is leading 6-4-4, and the over 2.5 is 8-6. However, in the last four years, the over has hit in Stuttgart, and each team is 2-0-2. So, this, again leaves a tough match to call. I like the under a bit with the way BVB plays on road Bundesliga matches, but I can see this going any way. Cacau and Tasci are slightly hindered by minor injuries, so that may be something to look out for. That will add value to the BVB win and the under, in my opinion. I'll probably lay off, but if I had to, I like BVB and the under.

Hertha Berlin at Wolfsburg – Wolfsburg is a good home squad with their only defeat coming at the hands of Bayern. After posting back-to-back wins against VfB and BVB, Hertha has cooled off a bit and is 1-2-2 in their last five with the only win coming against lowly Köln. In the last eight matches between the two, Hertha is 3-4-1, and has outscored Wolfsburg 14-7 with the overs being 5-3. This year, both teams are solid over squads, but Wolfsburg has a pair of 1-0 results and a pair of 2-1 results at home, so the over isn't guaranteed. Both squads are also at full strength, so injuries won't come into play. All of this leaves a very tough to call match. I, personally, like a 2-2 draw. I see value in the draw, the over, and maybe a Wolfsburg home win to change recent history.

Werder Bremen at Mainz – Werder Bremen is another squad of the Schalke/BVB ilk, in that their just flat out tough to call. On the other hand, Mainz is winless in their last eight (Bundesliga matches, they just beat H96 in DFB Pokal) and have conceded 11 goals in their 5 home games and have failed to score in two of them. With Werder's 1-2-2 record in their last five, only beating Hertha, and their 1-2-2 record on the road, only beating Hoffenheim. Mainz is missing Schönheim and Gopko and Bremen will be without Arnautovic (still suspended), Silvestre, Boenisch, and Avdic. So you could argue that leaves Mainz in better shape, but Bremen is a deeper squad with guys like Ekici pushing to play. I will play Werder Bremen to win, but only because +165 is great value for a team that should, by all means, win. And Mainz (and Wetklo) are due for a letdown after their DFB Pokal win. I think the over is a solid play, as well. Same with the draw.

Karlsruhe at Dresden – Karlsruhe is up 7-3-3 in the alltime series vs. Dresden, but Dresden is in much better form coming into this matchup with a couple of big road wins at Braunschweig and 1860. Karlsruhe has also impressively allowed twice as many goals as they've scored (24 to 12). Dresden is an over squad 2/3 of the time home or away, but Karlsruhe is 50/50 overall and only 1/3 on the road. Dynamo Dresen will be starting their full compliment of forwards and midfielders, but will have Hesl in goal and untested (this year) old man Schnetzler at left back. Karlsruhe will be relatively healthy, as well, just sitting out midfielder Staffeldt. All things considered, with the form, I like Dynamo Dresden to win. The over has a solid chance to hit, but this could be a 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1, etc. win. So the best play is Dresden, maybe play PK.

Aue at Paderborn – This should be a bad matchup for the Saxons even though Aue had a pair of 1-0 wins over Paderborn last year. Paderborn hasn't lost in 8 matches and Aue is a respectable 2-1-1 in their last four, including a win at Saint Pauli. The most marked stat is that Paderborn plays much tighter at home and is 2-2-1 and with 80% unders at home. Aue has a similar game on the road, in that 2/3 of their road matches have hit the under. Both teams are essentially coming in with their top squads, so I would expect it to continue. This match has a very good chance to hit the under, and I like Paderborn to win 1-0 or 2-0, but could see a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.


Play of the day is easily Bayern -2 v. Nürnberg probably with the Paderborn under in second.

[escou]

Great write-up TJ. Great info and logic have nothing to add ... to all the rest of the write-up's in other forums there is things that one might add up, but you have taken under consideration everything and even if this bet looses I would bet it again and again, because it just seems right GL today and for the rest of your week.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Very nice write up. Thank you.

[TomJSports]

Thanks for the kind words.

I did notice there has been some line movement in favour of Braunschweig because Fürth tweaked who they're starting at midfield. I doubt it makes much of a difference, but you can get -0.75 at solid odds and Fürth to win I think is down to -130. Should be a good match, regardless. I'm curious to see if Braunschweig can continue their good play, thought I (obviously) wouldn't bet on it.

[TomJSports]

Wow Braunschweig scored at 25'. My 2-0 ain't happening. Now Fürth needs to get attacking against this trap.

[TomJSports]

My play of the day will likely be 1860. They are a great home team and score tonnes of goals. Bochum is a mediocre at best squad. Don't think it's a homer bet, as they're playing their top squad and should demolish Bochum in front of the home fans. My lines are 1860 to win at +108 and o2.75 at -102. I jumped on them expecting line movement later.

I will be out of town for a bit, so I likely will not be able to post a full analysis of the games.

[TomJSports]

I don't trust BVB, Bayer, or Bremen, so those are out.

I like Nürnberg over Freiburg. And I will probably toy with Gladbach win or +0.5. I'm high on Lautern unders, so that may be in play, too.

St. Pauli and Fürth is a tough one too. Fürth is good defense on the road, and St.Pauli is an over squad at home. Toough to call, maybe St Pauli sets the pace for a 2-2 draw.

I'll also probably be a sucker and take the Bayrn -2 on Sunday. H96/Schalke may be too close to call. but haven't looked

[escou]

''St. Pauli and Fürth is a tough one too. Fürth is good defense on the road, and St.Pauli is an over squad at home. Toough to call, maybe St Pauli sets the pace for a 2-2 draw''.

Well not so tough after all you guessed it right! 2-2

[TomJSports]

''St. Pauli and Fürth is a tough one too. Fürth is good defense on the road, and St.Pauli is an over squad at home. Toough to call, maybe St Pauli sets the pace for a 2-2 draw''.

Well not so tough after all you guessed it right! 2-2

wish i played that total...or at least had the option to.

[EasyPicks]

nothing for tonight? and for the weekend?

[TomJSports]

Been super busy with work and a bit under the weather lately.

Only went 2-1 yesterday. Had Bayer -1, Paderborn to win, and the 1860 o3. Don't feel up to looking into matches today. Maybe Schalke and Gladbach. FCK and M05 should hit the over in a patented midtier Bundy over, but they may have been low scorers the past couple of years. And in 2.Bundesliga, maybe the Union/Fortuna over and the Sankt Pauli win or -0.75.

FCB and BVB should be a fantastic match. I hope BVB shows up big time, because it could be a lot of fun. I'd probably put a homer bet on the home team, but I'm eager to see them with a real test sans Schweini.

[TomJSports]

BVB may be starting an odd back four. Löwe is in at right back and Subotić is out with a broken face.

For FCB, Tymoschuk is suspended and Schweini is out, so Alaba and Gustavo will be holding midfielders. But aside from that position, they're essentially a full squad. Robben will indeed be on the bench and available as a sub.

I think Löwe is a bit green and the D as a whole can be hit by Bayern's attack. May go Bayern with the spread.

[EasyPicks]

I was also thinking in taking Gladbach for the win.....

GL

[Daveyboy]

Gladbach are evens at Augsburg tomorrow, Tom - good shout??

[Sniperpicks]

TomJ ? anyone see his Bundesliga plays anymore? i cant find them

[FindTheLock]

He has been taking the holidays off from gambling. Maybe he will be back after christmas.

[TomJSports]

Yeah, work is always worse in the winter. I'm in 60-80 hours a week.

But yeah, Gladbach is an awesome play at even money; low-scorer too is likely. FCK over Freiburg may be a decent play, too, but I haven't seen lineups. Hamburg/Mainz o3 is looking good too. Anyway, I don't really have time to post thorough reviews, so I haven't been posting my plays, just a couple of rogue comments here and there.

[escou]

How about Bayern, are they trashing Stuttgart or are they trashing them

[TomJSports]

You know me, I under play my Bayern boys way too much. But -1.25 makes it very tricky. Of course, Bayern has an incredible lineup without Schweinie. I believe Neuer - Lahm, Badstuber, van Buyten, Boateng - Kroos, Tymo - Franck, MÜller, Robben - Mario is the lineup. I have an odd gut feeling about this one, and always love Cacau. They should win big. But at VfB and with it being a big derby, VfB may sneak it out. If I play anything I may take the VfB+ line. Think Bayern wins by a goal or draws. Hope I'm wrong!

[beefcake]

Dammit G'bach bit the dust today...Are they playing way over their heads after almost getting sent down last year? Time to fade em?

[TomJSports]

Sorry I haven't been on SBR as much. Real busy. I still do a few picks here and there on †wi††er if you want to give a follow, same as user name. I'll try to get this thread going again.

[Lookingtostart]

Spreadsheets that I put together involve different European competitions, I like Bundesliga because it seems to be cleaner, well oiled and efficient, so far. There seems to be less red cards and penalties, which I like.

I like Hoffenheim PK this Saturday, but I see the price has dropped.
Koln PK @ $2.17 ATM, I like that a lot.
Wolfsburg +.75 @ $2.20, I like it a lot.

Bet 188 prices.

Question: Is the Bundeliga 2 an efficient betting market?

[TomJSports]

It was very much early season. I made a little today with Fürth. Bundy's always an awesome over league.