PHyldahl has arrived...

[PHyldahl]

Welcome. I will be posting up all my plays from now on right in here. I feel this is the right time for me to start betting on this years european soccer markets. Why? With nearly half of the season played our knowlegde about the teams and leagues is now much more usefull. Off course you can say that the lines/odds have started to become sharper too, but at this point I see an edge in teams who have over/under-performed so far. Things will tighten up!

My main focus will be on the Barclays Premier League and the UEFA Champions League. I will be having plays on five other leagues (Bundesliga, Europa League, La Liga, SAS Ligaen & Serie A), but they will most likely be with no or minor ”write-ups”. All plays will be in my record and the play is one of my official plays when you see it in bold with the letters LOCKED next to it.


Personal list of ideas to have focus on, track or bet:

1. Arsenal seems to keep having trouble against the top teams. Consider to bet against them when they face Chelsea 27/12 and City 05/01.

2. Bolton are currently 6th in the league and have only lost 3 matches. They have scored 30 goals in 17 games! Hopefully the lines will be inflated by their over achivement and I will look out for some good value on better opponents (Chelsea 29/12, Liverpool 01/01, Chelsea 24/01, Tottenham 05/02).

3. Everton have not lived up to expectations and potential thusfar this season. With only 3 wins they have disappointed yet again, but I see them somehow go on a streak in this second half of the season and crawl up where they belong. Remember to look out for good spots against top/middle teams at home. Everton should be a team playing european football!

4. My team are finally looking great. I normally try to avoid to bet on my team Manchester United (good betting manner), but right now they are just cruising. I will try to pick my spots and cash on the good defence away and amazing offense at home.

Best of luck to all on the board

[JOHON8]

Welcome to the forum.

Personally I don't see the EPL as a very profitable league but good to see someone with knowledge on here. GL

[phenomenon]

wellcome and goodluck

[Blue_Chips]

Welcome.

[tommygun]

Welcome to the forum. Personally I don't see the EPL as a very profitable league but good to see someone with knowledge on here. GL

quote of the day

[PHyldahl]

1st play of the season.

BOLTON @ 2.16 LOCKED (x2)

Bolton will be playing West Bromwich at home this sunday and I believe the homeside is the play

1. Even though Bolton are placed 6th they are only 10 points ahead of Wigan, who are currently in the relegation zone. They know the importance of three crucial home points before going on a tough road schedule facing Chelsea and Liverpool.

2. I do not think Bolton will be playing european football next season. They have overachieved so far, but so have WBA. Remember West Bromwich have won 2-3 against Arsenal at the Emirates and also played 2-2 at Old Trafford. The goals against Man U were stupid, but generally WBA tends to play more offense than defence. They have conceded 19 goals away from home allready (second most in the league, but lost 6-0 to CHE) and Bolton have scored the same number at home (also second most split with NEW & ARS). I simply see Bolton outscoring West Bromwich, if they show up and makes this an entertaining match (read: a lot of goals, not necessarily pretty)

3. This is a two unit play for me. One unit are equal to 1% of my roll and normally my plays will be in the 1-5 unit area. With that said, I will not hesitate to play 8 units on a game that I really love and feel very confident about. My big bets will most likely be on matches between top teams.

Soccer Season Record 2010-11:

Premier League: 0-0-0

[PHyldahl]

Remember it's the Premier League I'm betting on, the best football in the world. There is a reason to why this is the most followed football league and allways have been and it's quiet simple: In this league anything can happen. Not like the NBA, but seriously!

[PHyldahl]

MANCHESTER CITY @ 2.28 LOCKED (x2)

Just rolling with the better team here. No further write-up for this one.

GL to everyone on their plays.

[PHyldahl]

CHELSEA PK @ 2.06 LOCKED (x2)

Chelsea will be hoping to get out of their current struggles when they play Arsenal at the Emirates. The gunners are facing the city rivals being ahead in the table for the first time in a long period. Again they have the chance to prove that they can compete for the title and beat one of the big boys. Nasri says they can, Fabre says they need to, but I think they will fail once again.

Chelsea have won six out of the last seven meetings. The youngsters just can't keep up with the best and it's the same story when they have played Manchester United. Arsenal only have 3 wins in the last 20 games against these two teams.

With Lampard back it's allmost the same two teams who have played each other for some years now. I really like Chelsea in this spot and normally I will go bigger on them clean, but under the given circumstances I'll take Chelsea PK for a smaller amount.

[PHyldahl]

BOLTON @ 2.16 LOCKED (x2) 2-0 WIN
MANCHESTER CITY @ 2.28 LOCKED (x2) 1-3 WIN

Sweet start to the season. I have not watched any of the two games yet, but I'm very impressed by A. Carroll scoring 11 goals in 18 games now. Maybe a small play on Newcastle at White Hard Lane tuesday could be sharp, if Tottenham one man down are forced to run more than they do right now.
Man United still cruising, no surprise. I really like the fact that Rafael is still able to play football (Mentley ) and that Anderson are playing like a boss. No significant speed loss without Nani as I saw it btw.

GL to everyone. Hopefully the streak will continue and we'll have a great game tommorow.


Soccer Season Record 2010-11:

Premier League: 2-0-0 (100%) + 4.88 UNITS

[PHyldahl]

ARSENAL - CHELSEA OVER 2.5 @ 2.04 LOCKED (x1)

Nice price on this one, so I'll take it.

[PHyldahl]

CHELSEA PK @ 2.06 LOCKED (x2) 3-1 LOSS
ARSENAL - CHELSEA OVER 2.5 @ 2.04 LOCKED (x1) 3-1 WIN

Arsenal get their revenge and makes it a 1-1 day for me. Liking a few games on tommorows card.


Premier League: 3-1-0 (75%) + 3.92 UNITS

[PHyldahl]

Taking the two favorites for all the simple reasons and I like the over because both teams come off a win and really needs another one.

MANCHESTER CITY -1 @ 1.833 LOCKED (x2)
MANCHESTER CITY -1.5 @ 2.46 LOCKED (x1)

WEST HAM UNITED – EVERTON OVER 2.5 @ 2.15 LOCKED (x2)

MANCHESTER UNITED -1 @ 1.98 LOCKED (x2)
MANCHESTER UNITED -1.5 @ 2.7 LOCKED (x1)

[PHyldahl]

MANCHESTER CITY -1 @ 1.833 LOCKED (x2) 4-0 WIN
MANCHESTER CITY -1.5 @ 2.46 LOCKED (x1) 4-0 WIN
WEST HAM UNITED – EVERTON OVER 2.5 @ 2.15 LOCKED (x2) 1-1 LOSS
MANCHESTER UNITED -1 @ 1.98 LOCKED (x2) 1-1 LOSS
MANCHESTER UNITED -1.5 @ 2.7 LOCKED (x1 1-1 LOSS

Berbatov plays brilliant once again, but Birmingham manage to get a late goal on what seemed to be a foul


Premier League: 5-4-0 (55%) + 2.046 UNITS

[PHyldahl]

CHELSEA – BOLTON X @ 5.73 LOCKED (x1)
CHELSEA – BOLTON UNDER 2.5 @ 2.38 (x1)

If you take a look at the league table, you have to question the odds on this match. Chelsea are 5th with 31 points and Bolton are 6th with 29 points one game ahead. The Blues only have four points in the last six matches (4 draws), while Bolton have won three and got ten points the last six games.

Chelsea are having their worst period since 2000 based on results and how they play. Bolton are in the same time undergoing one of their best seasons thanks to Coyles' offensive mindset.

[Socrates]

Welcome and gl.

[squintz4]

Good Luck Phyl, looking forward to following your thread.

[TT22]

Good luck with your bets.

[PHyldahl]

CHELSEA – BOLTON X @ 5.73 LOCKED (x1) 1-0 LOSS
CHELSEA – BOLTON UNDER 2.5 @ 2.38 LOCKED (x1) 1-0 WIN

Not happy about my start at the moment. It's not that I fully expected Bolton to take points, but I really liked the under so I should have been more aggresive. On the other hand I'm actually feeling pretty good despite the slow start. Love the upcoming schedule and will start cappin as soon as I hit the submit reply button.
Thanks for the comments btw.


Premier League: 6-5-0 (54,5%) + 2.42 UNITS

[latinrus]

U are still up that's good!

[tommygun]

keep it up mate, your still in the green and thats all that really matters in the end!

[PHyldahl]

MANCHESTER UNITED -1 @ 2.0 LOCKED (x2)
BOLTON +0.5 @ 2.28 LOCKED (x3)
TOTTENHAM – FULHAM UNDER 2.5 @ 2.06 LOCKED (x1)
BIRMINGHAM – ARSENAL UNDER 2.5 @ 1.935 LOCKED (x2)

No write-ups for this round because New Year preparations take all my time. Happy New Year everyone

[PHyldahl]

CHELSEA – ASTON VILLA UNDER 2.5 @ 2.37 LOCKED (x2)

Only one play for today. I will recap my weekend after this game.

[PHyldahl]

Back after a year without betting. I cashed my last roll to pay a deposit for my first apartment. It was 240units and it has taken me a while to get back.
I've decided to relaunch this thread with the only difference being the amount of activity and money I have available. My roll is half the size, but the time I have is unlimited since my job starts in april and I'll only be playing ball until then.


Final PL Record Last Season: 7-8-1 down 3.52 UNITS

MANCHESTER UNITED -1 @ 2.0 LOCKED (x2) 1-2 VOID
BOLTON +0.5 @ 2.28 LOCKED (x3) 2-1 LOSS
TOTTENHAM – FULHAM UNDER 2.5 @ 2.06 LOCKED (x1) 1-0 WIN
BIRMINGHAM – ARSENAL UNDER 2.5 @ 1.935 LOCKED (x2) 0-3 LOSS
CHELSEA – ASTON VILLA UNDER 2.5 @ 2.37 LOCKED (x2) 3-3 LOSS

[PHyldahl]

I have kept my action very low to start with and it has payed off pretty well. From spreadsheet:

Pinnacle, Odds: 2.71, Fund: - Stake: 350:- (3.5%) Value: 948.5:-
2012-01-18 Real Madrid - Barcelona 2 1-2 2.71 La Liga 1X2

Pinnacle, Odds: 2.3, Fund: - Stake: 300:- (3%) Value: 690:-
2012-01-16 Wigan - Manchester City (U 2.5) Under 0-1 2.3 Premier League Under 2.5

Pinnacle, Odds: 2.1, Fund: - Stake: 300:- (3%) Value: 630:-
2012-01-15 Swansea - Arsenal (O 2.5) Over 3-2 2.1 Premier League Over 2.5

Pinnacle, Odds: 2.2, Fund: - Stake: 300:- (3%) Value: 660:-
2012-01-14 Chelsea - Sunderland (U 2.5) Under 1-0 2.2 Premier League Under 2.5

Pinnacle, Odds: 1 (void), Fund: - Stake: 300:- (3%) Value: 300:- (void)
2012-01-14 Manchester United - Bolton (U 3) Under 3-0 2.71 Premier League Under 3

[PHyldahl]

This is not a try to get somebody to recognize or tail, but rather a good introduction to which markets I look at and what I see at the moment. I only bet on leagues/teams I follow closely. I'm also hooked on the NBA, so it's only the most entertaining ball I watch. Everybody should know what that means.

No way this is to my advantage, so first thing I do is looking at markets right when they come on the board. I quickly look at all the lines and write down my very first leans. Not any details, just like chelsea -1, liver u2.5 ect. In this situation it would be so player to have a database, where the XML feed from the bookie provides data to a spreadsheet, where the odds you want can be stored and put in systems. From my own experience this is not so easy.

Anyway, my primary goal is to take advantage of line movements between the opening- and closing line. It is most likely, that the public perception of any game will change the odds in favor of the ones betting the underdog. I like betting favourites/overs early and underdogs/unders late.

Research = succes from my own experience. My focuses are: SCHEDULE, who is the better team in general, MATCHUPS, in what situation are both sides, how motivated will they play, current performances, team chemistry, trends expecially O/U, injuries.

I like the schedule for this upcoming weekend and will start posting my plays from now on.

[The Special One]

good start

[PHyldahl]

CHELSEA -1 @ 1.98 LOCKED (x2)

I love betting this kind of handicap.

1. Chelsea is the only top 5 team with an *easy* game this round and must be very motivated to take advantage of that. This is a great spot for the blues to catch up before facing Manchester United @ Stamford Bridge in a game that could turn their season around. I see Chelsea winning their next two games.

2. Same situation as last season and even the one before that. Trademark is that they get of to a fast start and then chokes at some point, when they feel too confident or just are playing tough schedule/too many matches. Somehow they allways manage to get back and finish respectable without playing super well like they did maybe 3 years ago.

3. The stats for Chelsea winning by more than 1 are against me. The stats for a low scoring game is aswell, but in my judgement there's a fine line between trends and how the market is over or under-reacting to them.

Play it for all the obvious reasons and feel square when you cash it.

[PHyldahl]

NORWICH - CHELSEA UNDER 2.5 @ 2.37 LOCKED (x1)

No need to justify this play, when allmost every stat/trend goes against it. Big one is that Norwich and Chelsea only have failed to score in <15% of their 21 matches. Anyway, to me the line is more 50/50 than what the market thinks.

Feel sharp and sqaure at the same time, when Chelsea wins 0-2. lol, play it small or under 3 with heavy juice.

[PHyldahl]

BLACKBURN +1 @ 1.877 LOCKED (x1)

Why is Blackburn +1 and not +0.5? No way Everton should have a 60-61% chance to win this game. Simply and safe in my opinion. Missed a decent price though, so only 1 unit.

SUNDERLAND - SWANSEA OVER 2.5 @ 2.28 LOCKED (x2)

This one really caught my attention at first sight. Good setup because Swansea scored 3 against Arsenal last round and Sunderland should have scored 3 vs Chelsea. The odds is the primary reason on this one.

MANCHESTER CITY @ 1.847 LOCKED (x5)

Are you kidding me? No need to overthink 10-0-0. BIG PLAY!

[PHyldahl]

CHELSEA -1 @ 1.98 LOCKED (x2) 0-0 LOSS
NORWICH - CHELSEA UNDER 2.5 @ 2.37 LOCKED (x1) 0-0 WIN
BLACKBURN +1 @ 1.877 LOCKED (x1) 1-1 WIN
SUNDERLAND - SWANSEA OVER 2.5 @ 2.28 LOCKED (x2) 2-0 LOSS
MANCHESTER CITY @ 1.847 LOCKED (x5) 3-2 WIN

Premier League: 3-2-0 + 2.48 UNITS

Turnover: 1100
Net profit: 248.2
Accuracy-%: 60% (3/5)
ROI: 122.6%
Avarage odds: 2.07

[The Hot Pepper]

Damn this thread is darn old

[Mriceyman]

Nice start

[PHyldahl]

Huge night in the NBA yesterday going 4/6 with a net profit of 7 units.

I just finished my first look at the upcoming FA & EPL round and sitting with 10+ leans at the moment.

[PHyldahl]

WOLVES +0.5 @ 2.22 LOCKED (x1.5)
WOLVERHAMPTON - LIVERPOOL OVER 2.5 @ 2.02 LOCKED (x1)

Wolves are looking for their first win in 8 games and this is a good chance for them to get it. They are out of the FA and their opponent plays Manchester United three days before this meeting. Fully rested they should be able to compete with a Liverpool side without Suarez, who are 5-1-5 away from home so far this season.
Liverpool are having big trouble scoring goals and 68% of their matches ended under 2.5 until now. Bolton smashed them 3-1 last round and I hope a quick goal in this contest can give Wolves the same energy and believe. I imagine that Liverpool will have a defensive approach to this game.

Wolverhampton scored at least one goal in each of their last 9 matches. Wolves conceded at least one goal in 91% of their home matches and 82% of them had over 2.5 goals scored in total (68% overall).


CHELSEA @ 1.752 LOCKED (x1.5)

I was on the blues vs Norwich and this match seems very similar to it. Maybe a little tougher since Swansea has no defeat in their last five home games! That streak will end facing Chelsea, who won the previous encounter 4-1 earlier this season. Take Chelsea and if you like the over aswell, then consider them -1. Here is my suggestion though:

SWANSEA - CHELSEA UNDER 2.5 @ 1.935 LOCKED (x1)

Liking the under here. Both teams will play away in the FA Cup saturday and have only three days of rest before this match. Swansea is 72,7% under 2.5 at home, Chelsea 54,5% under away. Swansea has failed to score in 45.5% of all their games, worst in league, but kept 40,9% clean sheets, three more than Chelsea.

Setup is good and worth a small play.