I lost 8 soccer matches by a combined 10 goals

jgray · 08-30-10, 01:12 PM

Don’t most soccer matches come down to one goal? Sucks losing all those games, but the margin of defeat seems pretty common.

brandonlang · 08-30-10, 01:22 PM

lol you suck bud

statnerds · 08-30-10, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by jgray

Don’t most soccer matches come down to one goal? Sucks losing all those games, but the margin of defeat seems pretty common.

too detailed to get into, but suffice it to say that the matches i bet (over 1,500 and growing), feature favorites that win 50.3% of the time

so far today those favorites are 11-2-1.

thus the term

variance

Masu485 · 08-30-10, 02:00 PM

i always have a bad day right after I raise my unit amount.

Slainte · 08-30-10, 03:54 PM

it would have been bigger surprise to lose them by 20 goals combined

durito · 08-30-10, 04:09 PM

This isn't football, a goal is kind of a lot.

pdx107 · 08-30-10, 04:12 PM

agreed, i had a bad weekend in all the leagues but MLS

swagger · 08-30-10, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by pdx107

agreed, i had a bad weekend in all the leagues but MLS

MLS= goldmine especially with teams like Columbus, RSL and NY(sometimes)

statnerds · 08-30-10, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by durito

This isn't football, a goal is kind of a lot.

actually, it is football. sometimes you speak like an ignorant American (that is a joke, cool your jets)

regardless of the sport, losing 7 games by 1 score hurts (9 games now, 11 goals).

and as i stated, over 1,500+ plays and have dealt with the variance before, and that is all this represents. had 23 plays today on football and those damn favorites pulled out a 16-7 record (it was actually 16W2L5D).

survived a Saturday last year when the favorites went 28-9, and I will survive this one. just annoying as hell and I tend to deal with variance like a child admonished for peeing in public.

the worst part is only 17% of my BR is with 5D, and it is the only place I can play these bets.

long term that is a bad thing. short term it saved me money cause I couldn't play as much on each one, as I needed funds for the Nickel MLB lines. looks like some money movement is in order.

90% of other gamblers don't care about your losses, and the other 10% are glad it ain't them.

birdmanweezy · 08-30-10, 06:37 PM

youve actually lost by 2 goals on each of those since draws arnt winners

statnerds · 08-30-10, 07:12 PM

Originally posted by birdmanweezy

youve actually lost by 2 goals on each of those since draws arnt winners

or are they?

btw, i hate Inter. completely OT, but fuk i hate them. like the Yankees of Serie A

which is strange because i like Barca and they do basically the same thing...

onizuka · 08-30-10, 07:59 PM

If you looking for a lot of goals go for Bundesliga, I lost playing "under" there last weekend.

durito · 08-30-10, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

actually, it is football. sometimes you speak like an ignorant American (that is a joke, cool your jets)

regardless of the sport, losing 7 games by 1 score hurts (9 games now, 11 goals).

and as i stated, over 1,500+ plays and have dealt with the variance before, and that is all this represents. had 23 plays today on football and those damn favorites pulled out a 16-7 record (it was actually 16W2L5D).

survived a Saturday last year when the favorites went 28-9, and I will survive this one. just annoying as hell and I tend to deal with variance like a child admonished for peeing in public.

the worst part is only 17% of my BR is with 5D, and it is the only place I can play these bets.

long term that is a bad thing. short term it saved me money cause I couldn't play as much on each one, as I needed funds for the Nickel MLB lines. looks like some money movement is in order.

90% of other gamblers don't care about your losses, and the other 10% are glad it ain't them.

Losing by goal is like losing by more than a TD. It's hardly like losing by 1/2pt in basketball, and i've had days with multiple 1/2pt hoops loses.

1,500 bets is nothing. I've broken even over stretches of 3,000.

Glada Tartan · 08-31-10, 02:10 AM

Why lose when you raise your limits?

Maybe some overconfidence and thats leads to a choke?

Socrates · 08-31-10, 09:03 AM

Tough luck man.

alka07 · 09-02-10, 06:28 AM

can happen to everyone,

statnerds · 09-02-10, 07:25 AM

Originally posted by Glada Tartan

Why lose when you raise your limits?

Maybe some overconfidence and thats leads to a choke?

variance, bad timing and selective perception

statnerds · 09-02-10, 08:10 AM

Originally posted by durito

Losing by goal is like losing by more than a TD. It's hardly like losing by 1/2pt in basketball, and i've had days with multiple 1/2pt hoops loses.

1,500 bets is nothing. I've broken even over stretches of 3,000.

just when I started to change my opinion of you. was starting to think perhaps you are sharp and have much to offer to the board. it is with a modest amount of humility I offer the following:

i must take issue with the 'losing by a goal is like losing by more than a TD.' if that is true, then which one of these sports has a fukton of value that should make one rich in a few months?

if you are telling me that losing by a goal is equal to losing by 7 or more points in the NFL, then the price for buying points is way off in one of the sports. If I can get a goal in football for 85 cents or so, why does +7 cost me ~285 cents in the NFL?

it should be noted a FG can be had as cheap as 65 cents or more than 100. If I can get +1.5 in football for ~280, in your words the equivalent to 7.5 in the NFL, why then does it cost me ~300 (highest I saw was 335)? yes, that amount will change depending on crossing Key Numbers in the NFL, but you get my point.

not trying to start shit or be a jerk, honestly asking the questions. if your contention is that a goal in football is more valuable than a TD in the NFL, than which price is +EV long term?

because it is my assertion that a TD is much more valuable than a goal in football and if I am so blatantly incorrect, please educate me as this is a teachable moment. am I oversimplifying the cost of points?

as for 1,500+ games, it is the amount of have data on. as time passes that number will grow, but I need a starting point to begin developing conclusions and searching for even the slightest edge.

NOTE: Upon completion of writing the above I figured out the answer on my own and it is with proper respect that I apologize to Durito and admit he is much smarter than myself.

so it appears you are sharp sir, just blunt and unapologetic in your approach.

durito · 09-02-10, 08:27 AM

If I understand you, you answered your question.

If not, the value of a goal depends on the total and ml's (more so than in gringo football because scoring is so much lower).

But, it's worth a lot. Take a game today, say Spain/Holland U21. Pinny ML's are-175/514/332, giving implied win % of .617, .158, and .224, take out the draw and spain wins .796 which would make a fair pk line of +-390 .. The +1 line at pinny is -114, implying the cost of buying a goal to be ~400 cents.

If I can get a goal in football for 85 cents or so

I'd be getting to work on putting whatever bookie gives you this out of business. Shouldn't take too long.

statnerds · 09-02-10, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by durito

If I understand you, you answered your question.

If not, the value of a goal depends on the total and ml's (more so than in gringo football because scoring is so much lower).

But, it's worth a lot. Take a game today, say Spain/Holland U21. Pinny ML's are-175/514/332, giving implied win % of .617, .158, and .224, take out the draw and spain wins .796 which would make a fair pk line of +-390 .. The +1 line at pinny is -114, implying the cost of buying a goal to be ~400 cents.

I'd be getting to work on putting whatever bookie gives you this out of business. Shouldn't take too long.

yep. figured it out all on my own and saw it could cost like 500 cents for a goal, but that was Bookmakers whose football lines are horrid.