After the world cup it seems as if everyone posting their picks on here is either around even or down units. Is anyone having success so far? I'm letting the domestic seasons develop a little before I start betting again.
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I am new to the betting scene but so far getting killed in mls.Comment -
yeah soccer can be a tough one, havn't seen a substantially winning record yetComment -
wait for the big leagues to start. all the leagues coming back (especially MLS and Brazil) have been having strange results .. it'll settle down in a week or two I thinkComment -
Im getting killed waiting for the Big leagues so if i can get bck upComment -
switched to baseball until the real leagues startsComment -
iam waiting a little to alot of players tired since world cupComment -
doing good can't wait for the Mexican League to start should be a cash cow if handicapped correctly.Comment -
In order to bet a line and be profitable in the long term you need to be able to calculate your edge (this applies to both soccer and every other sport). Its almost impossible to do this at the very start of the season because you don't have enough stats (or any stats at all for that matter) for your calculations to be accurate. In my experience, it takes about 20% of the season before the stats settle and give you a realistic set of lines for each game.
Therefore, depending on the amount of teams in a league I generally wait until 6-8 games have been played before I start betting on a soccer league.
However, there are still plenty of league out there to be bet on at the moment, leagues which are in full swing. Brazil, Chile, MLS, Norway, Sweden, Russia, Korea, Japan all have leagues that have played at least 8 games so far.
If you are betting because you "think" has a team has a good chance of winning, this will possibly give you a losing record in the long term. You need to be able back to back it up with stats and maths and generate what you deem to be a fair line for each game. Once you've done that you can compare it to the line available for each game and work out whether you have an edge against a given line.
Success = stats + maths + knowledge of sport + knowledge of league + knowledge of teams + knowledge of situation factors - its a combination of all these things but you need to be able to generate your own betting lines rather than just guessing if a line has value or not, that's something I would really recommend.
As an example, if you thought Corinthians had a good chance of beating Atletico Mineiro that doesn't automatically mean that you bet this game. You should calculate the probability of this happening (using stats and maths), generate a fair moneyline for the game, compare it to available lines at sportsbooks and determine if your bet is +EV or not. Then look at the situational factors, such as injuries, rest between games, recent form, head to head records and see if these continue to support your probability scores. If everything lines up, then its time to bet the game.
I know a lot of people might disagree that you need stats and maths to beat a betting line and be profitable but I think its a very important part of sports betting.
Good luck everyone.Comment
