[ThomasHB]

Lanarkshire derby to kick off the weekend in Scotland tonight and I have posted my investment and preview of the game below...

Scottish Premiership

Hamilton vs Motherwell
Advice: OVER 2.5 Goals at 1.80+

Positions
Motherwell : 11th (Rel Play Off) - Safe from bottom spot but 6 points adrift of clear safety.
Accies: 7th - Will be playing top flight football next season. Safe.

It was just last month we were on Motherwell +0 at home to Accies and they ran out emphatic winners in that game at Fir Park with 4 second half goals. They have won 2 from 3 since that victory and generally looked to be moving in the right direction until their last game at Firhill which resulted in a 2-0 defeat by Partick Thistle. That was a sharp reminder for Well fans that a lot of work is still to be done this season as they were outplayed by Thistle and now sit 6 points behind Ross County in second bottom place and with just 4 games to go after this, the relegation play off spot is looking more likely unless they can put together another winning run. They will take confidence knowing they have still to play County but 3 points from every other match is vital if they are to avoid second bottom and that starts with this game tonight. Accies have little to play for but will surely be looking to get a win for new boss Martin Canning who is still waiting for that first win as manager. I genuinely seen some improvement from them at Tannadice a few weeks ago and they were unlucky to lose 1-0 to United having dominated much of the game and they hit the woodwork 3 times in the second half of the match. As I said, they don't have much to lose here so we should see them go at Motherwell and the players will be desperate to get a first win for Canning. Motherwell have just about sold their full allocation of tickets for this match and given the circumstances, they really have to play for 3 points tonight to keep their hopes of survival alive. We have spoke about Motherwell being very open in recent weeks with 4 of their last 5 games going over and I think we can excuse the last game at Thistle as the pitch cut up very bad during the match and we didn't see too many chances after that. Accies play on an artificial surface so we won't have any problems tonight and Ian Baraclough knows how important a win is tonight to keep up the pressure on County. Motherwell are without defensive midfielder Stuart Carswell who is suspended and I don't think left back Stevie Hammell will be risked on the surface having only just returned from injury. The front four of Johnson, Ainsworth, Erwin and McDonald should cause the hosts plenty of problems tonight. Accies are still missing player manager and key central defender Martin Canning who is suspended and they are missing a physical presence without him in defence. This has a very open feel to it and the first goal should see this become very stretched. Clear value for me on the goal line at 1.80+.

[GR33D]

are you a hun or fenian?

[ThomasHB]

FT: 2-0. 2nd goal after 54 minutes but nothing else.

24 shots on goal and so many clear chances. The woodwork was hit 4 times but only 2 goals. Very unlucky.

[smithah2]

Next time. The over was the right play. Sometimes just doesn't pan out.

[ThomasHB]

Three for today...


Dundee vs St Johnstone
Advice: UNDER 2 Goals at 2.02+
Games between these two teams this season have been very tight with Saints winning 1-0 in Perth a few weeks ago and they previously drew 1-1 here in November with Dundee winning 1-0 in Perth at the start of the campaign. Both managers are known for keeping things tight as we have discussed with Paul Hartley of Dundee throughout the season and Saints don't score much for Tommy Wright (just 29 goals in 33 games) but defensively, only the top two in the league have a better shut out record than them. Their match from a few weeks ago had very few chances and the Saints winner came through an individual mistake. Dundee lost 2-1 against Celtic on Wednesday but their wasn't too much action in that with only a stunning free kick putting Celtic 2 up before they switched off late in the game. Dundee beat United 3-1 in the derby game a few weeks ago and having advised the 'over' bet in that match, you may remember me stating how those matches are usually far more open and intense than their normal league games and that was certainly the case with 3 goals inside 24 minutes. Those are the only 2 of their last 9 games that have seen at least 3 goals and with both teams showing the same tight setups to me throughout the season, I think we will be in for another low scoring affair today. Similar to the hosts, only 2 of the last 9 games for Saints have had 3+ goals and one of those was a narrow 2-1 defeat by Celtic and a 3-0 loss at Partick Thistle where they were 2-0 down inside 10 minutes in what was a very unusual off day for their defence. This looks like being another very cagey game and I am going to take a chance on the under 2 line at 2.02+.


Inverness vs Aberdeen
Advice: UNDER 2.25 Goals at 1.86+
This is another game between two very solid defensive sides and there won't be too much in this today. Inverness will be on a high after reaching the Scottish Cup Final last weekend against Celtic and John Hughes will be looking for them to keep the momentum up before the final in a few weeks time. Aberdeen can only try and keep winning their games and hope Celtic have a miraculous collapse at the top of the table but it won't happen. Defensively both teams have been solid for much of the season and they don't give too much away in terms of easy goal scoring chances. Aberdeen were 1-0 winners when the sides met at Pittodrie just a few weeks ago and I see no reason why this won't be another tight game with very little to separate the sides. The lineup from both will be similar to that game a few weeks ago although Ross Draper is suspended for Inverness so we will see a change for them in the middle of the park. I can't see many chances in this one either and and I do think we have an edge on the 2.25 line. Under 2.25 is the bet for me at 1.86+.


St Mirren vs Kilmarnock
Advice: KILMARNOCK -0.25 at 1.80+
We have discussed how Saints have thrown in the towel for the last few weeks and you have to ask how manager Gary Teale is going to approach this game with his players. 3 of their first team defenders throughout the season are unavailable as both Viktor Genev and Jim Goodwin are suspended and Marc McAusland has been released with the club now starting to prepare for life in the Championship. The last time we seen Saints we were also against them with Ross County and with County completely dominating that match I see no reason to show any sort of faith in this St Mirren side. They failed to create any sort of goalscoring chance in that match and the 5-0 hammering by Motherwell before that would suggest the dressing room has been completely lost. Killie lost 4-1 at Celtic in their last game but before that I thought they played well at home to Aberdeen and could well have got a point had they not missed a last minute penalty kick. Manager Gary Locke can welcome back a few key players for this game with Manuel Pascali and Jamie Hamill back in contention and they will surely fancy their chances against what is a rock bottom St Mirren side, and I speak for morale, confidence and form when I say that, not just their position. Killie are 7 points above the relegation play off spot and although they should have done enough to be safe already, this is a game they will be looking to win to really cement their status as a top flight club next season. Saints look like easy opposition to any side right now and having to shuffle around what is already an extremely fragile defensive line is not going to be easy for Gary Teale. I can't imagine there will be many home fans going to this and Killie should have enough about them to pick up all 3 points.