How can the books be so off?

[Gaze73]

Soccer Qatar cup game Rayyan - Sadd. Half time is 0-4. The first drop from 2.88 to 2.38 was probably some lineup info but that was still miles off from the closing price.

Actually all 3 Qatar games today had massive odds movements and all games are blowouts. If the books don't know shit about the games why do they put up lines? Do they like to lose money to inside info?

Anyway, the frustrating thing about steamers is you never know if the current price is still good value or if the market just overreacted like sheep. Sometimes the price swings back up by 50% like a rollercoaster even though the lineups are already known.

[cashin81]

2.88-1.20 is extreme.

i saw it went 1-4 to 0-5, someone happy lol.

[Gaze73]

Qatar games so far 5:0, 0:6 and 2:0, free money. Imagine betting at 2.88 and knowing they have a 90% chance to win.

[BigdaddyQH]

If it is free money, how come the books have a ton of money and you guys are broke?

[Gaze73]

If it is free money, how come the books have a ton of money and you guys are broke?

Because we're not the ones with inside info and the books make money on other games.

[rustie]

If it is free money, how come the books have a ton of money and you guys are broke?

LOL

[Gaze73]

Books are also clueless about draws though. God, I love hot runs.

[gojetsgomoxies]

post all your picks and your ROI..... also, maybe post some "bookies have no idea" bets BEFORE THE GAME

qatar cup might be really obscure. what are the betting limits?..... i'm thinking bookies want to have lots of events on their site even if they lose small amounts of money on many of them

[Waterstpub87]

I really don't get the point of these posts. Ok, the books are off on a 25$ max bet random soccer game. For once, BigDaddy is correct here. If that is the case, bet them heavy, make millions, send us a post card from the Riviera.

[Pancake229]

Sports Betting is easy bro gotta have the database VegasHustlerNet

[Gaze73]

I really don't get the point of these posts. Ok, the books are off on a 25$ max bet random soccer game. For once, BigDaddy is correct here. If that is the case, bet them heavy, make millions, send us a post card from the Riviera.

$25 max bet sure, this isn't kazakhstan's third league water polo. If you were a bookie why would you throw away $100k on a game you know nothing about? And like I said I'm not the one with inside info so I'll have to make millions the hard way.

[Alfa1234]

$25 max bet sure, this isn't kazakhstan's third league water polo. If you were a bookie why would you throw away $100k on a game you know nothing about? And like I said I'm not the one with inside info so I'll have to make millions the hard way.

Says the guy who had a Maltese premier league bet in his picks. If you are betting online, your limit would have been around 30-35€.

I'll repeat what I've said many times. Winning isn't the problem at all, getting on is the issue.

[semibluff]

Books are also clueless about draws though. God, I love hot runs.

So you're betting on clear and obvious line errors? I'm surprised you got paid. I would have expected the book to void those bets and boot you.

[Gaze73]

Says the guy who had a Maltese premier league bet in his picks. If you are betting online, your limit would have been around 30-35€.

I'll repeat what I've said many times. Winning isn't the problem at all, getting on is the issue.

What the hell are you talking about? This is soccer, the most popular betting sport in the world, do you even bet it? You can easily bet thousands on every country's 1st league. If not in one bet then in 2 bets. Or bet however much you like after kickoff. And it's not like you need to bet $5K to get a decent return from a draw. If winning isn't a problem at all why do 99% of people lose?

[TommieGunshot]

$25 max bet sure, this isn't kazakhstan's third league water polo. If you were a bookie why would you throw away $100k on a game you know nothing about? And like I said I'm not the one with inside info so I'll have to make millions the hard way.

This is a big part of your answer. If you weren't the one to move the line, you have no idea what did move it. It could have been based more on information than money. If it was $500 bets that caused each of those moves, the liability on the books is very little.

The other reason is something you have highlighted a lot in the past. There are some people who can identify huge edges, yet still significantly underbet and never build up to making large bets. In those cases the books aren't going to lose much money to those bettors.

[Gaze73]

So you're betting on clear and obvious line errors? I'm surprised you got paid. I would have expected the book to void those bets and boot you.

Are you joking? Since when is a draw an obvious line error? What were the actual odds supposed to be in the Hobro game? 2.5? Lol.

[cashin81]

What the hell are you talking about? This is soccer, the most popular betting sport in the world, do you even bet it? You can easily bet thousands on every country's 1st league. If not in one bet then in 2 bets. Or bet however much you like after kickoff. And it's not like you need to bet $5K to get a decent return from a draw. If winning isn't a problem at all why do 99% of people lose?

No way you can bet "however much you like" in malta. But the draw bets look fine, dunno why you getting shit for that.

The qatar game looks like al rayan were through anyway and al saad needed the win. probably fixed or they put out u17s.

[Gaze73]

This is a big part of your answer. If you weren't the one to move the line, you have no idea what did move it. It could have been based more on information than money. If it was $500 bets that caused each of those moves, the liability on the books is very little.

The other reason is something you have highlighted a lot in the past. There are some people who can identify huge edges, yet still significantly underbet and never build up to making large bets. In those cases the books aren't going to lose much money to those bettors.

Obviously it wasn't just one guy moving the line because it was dropping all day until kickoff. I would assume the local qatari news reported some info about the game and people were betting on that but bookies don't have such info. There is a guy with 10k followers who has 71% roi on Israel leagues because he has crazy inside info such as "the team will start with 10 players" and he bets at 2.5 when he knows the odds should be 1.3. That's why I don't get why bookies waste time with tin pot leagues.

[Gaze73]

No way you can bet "however much you like" in malta. But the draw bets look fine, dunno why you getting shit for that.

The qatar game looks like al rayan were through anyway and al saad needed the win. probably fixed or they put out u17s.

There are basically no limits in play. Open mollybet and bet on the draw 10 times if you like.

[semibluff]

Are you joking? Since when is a draw an obvious line error? What were the actual odds supposed to be in the Hobro game? 2.5? Lol.

Please don't pretend you don't know what a clear and obvious line error is.

A 2 outcome event priced at -110; +112 would be a clear and obvious line error.
A 3 outcome event priced at +100; +300; +305 would be a clear and obvious line error.

[rustie]

maybe post some of these winnig wagers before the event happens and we wouldn't have to hear all this debate about how much smarter you are than these inept bookies out there? How about it?

[Gaze73]

Please don't pretend you don't know what a clear and obvious line error is.

A 2 outcome event priced at -110; +112 would be a clear and obvious line error.
A 3 outcome event priced at +100; +300; +305 would be a clear and obvious line error.

None of the plays in my image had a line error you clown, have you ever bet on a draw in your life? lmao.

A 3-way outcome with equal probabilities would be +200/+200/+200 with no juice. I bet on draws at +250 because the other two outcomes are not +200.

[Gaze73]

maybe post some of these winnig wagers before the event happens and we wouldn't have to hear all this debate about how much smarter you are than these inept bookies out there? How about it?

I do that already elsewhere, no point to do it here.

[rustie]

No ,no point at all ,let's just continue to look at all the "winning" wagers you post on here and bow down to your superior intelligence and have endless diatribes about how a unemployed loser with no bankroll still living in his mom's basement can consistently beat the bookie.

[Gaze73]

No ,no point at all ,let's just continue to look at all the "winning" wagers you post on here and bow down to your superior intelligence and have endless diatribes about how a unemployed loser with no bankroll still living in his mom's basement can consistently beat the bookie.

I'll get rich selling picks don't worry about me.

[rustie]

I'll get rich selling picks don't worry about me.

That's a good one lol. Iv'e always wondered why a successful gambler would bother selling picks ,I mean it musn't be for the money , so look out guys he must be going to do this just out of the goodness of his heart ,we've got ourselves a saint here.... when and where can we sign up for this ,I'm sure you'll blow up the internet with all the requests. And to think I came here because it said "Think Tank" boy was I wrong again

[Gaze73]

That's a good one lol. Iv'e always wondered why a successful gambler would bother selling picks ,I mean it musn't be for the money , so look out guys he must be going to do this just out of the goodness of his heart ,we've got ourselves a saint here.... when and where can we sign up for this ,I'm sure you'll blow up the internet with all the requests. And to think I came here because it said "Think Tank" boy was I wrong again

I'm posting free picks for now. As to why someone would bother selling picks, it's pretty obvious. 1. If you have a shit BR like me, selling gives a big boost. 2. With a bigger bankroll when I have a downswing it will be easily covered by subscribers. 3. Even with a pro bankroll selling just gives you extra cash for basically no extra work. Why make 10k a month when you can make 10k+5k from subscribers? Selling is a waste of time only for millionaires.

[Alfa1234]

What the hell are you talking about? This is soccer, the most popular betting sport in the world, do you even bet it? You can easily bet thousands on every country's 1st league. If not in one bet then in 2 bets. Or bet however much you like after kickoff. And it's not like you need to bet $5K to get a decent return from a draw. If winning isn't a problem at all why do 99% of people lose?

If actually were betting those lines for more than 25€, you would know what I'm talking about. Please tell me which online book you use that allows you to bet more than 50€ on a Maltese premier league game. And don't say Mollybet, cause then I know you're just lying.

And thousands on every country's first soccer league? Give me a break. E.g. limits for the Austrian bundesliga (which is not the smallest league in the world) draw are about 200€ for every game on Pinnacle right now. Only the real big leagues have limits over 1k. You don't know what you are talking about.

Start actually making some decent money and you'll find getting on will become your only big problem.

[Gaze73]

If actually were betting those lines for more than 25€, you would know what I'm talking about. Please tell me which online book you use that allows you to bet more than 50€ on a Maltese premier league game. And don't say Mollybet, cause then I know you're just lying.

And thousands on every country's first soccer league? Give me a break. E.g. limits for the Austrian bundesliga (which is not the smallest league in the world) draw are about 200€ for every game on Pinnacle right now. Only the real big leagues have limits over 1k. You don't know what you are talking about.

Start actually making some decent money and you'll find getting on will become your only big problem.

This is a game that starts in 15 hours. Did you know the limits get bigger closer to kickoff? Shocking I know. And did you know you can bet after kickoff too? It's this brand new thing called live betting, you might've heard of it. I've never in my life seen a €50 limit on a soccer game so it's clearly you who doesn't know what he's talking about. I checked a game in israeli 3rd league today and it had a €600 limit on a draw. Malta premier league is a higher tier than Israel 3.

[TommieGunshot]

Obviously it wasn't just one guy moving the line because it was dropping all day until kickoff.

But that doesn't mean it was a lot of money. You are the one who has shown us that even when bettors have huge edges and access to "free money," they often bet very small.

[Alfa1234]

This is a game that starts in 15 hours. Did you know the limits get bigger closer to kickoff? Shocking I know. And did you know you can bet after kickoff too? It's this brand new thing called live betting, you might've heard of it. I've never in my life seen a €50 limit on a soccer game so it's clearly you who doesn't know what he's talking about. I checked a game in israeli 3rd league today and it had a €600 limit on a draw. Malta premier league is a higher tier than Israel 3.

Ok, so what are your picks for the day? Let's see how "good" you are and post some of your draws. Pretty sure you'll go bust if you start posting them before the game instead of showing your wins after it finishes, long term at least.

[moojoo]

This games like Qatar ones books cancel later for obvious line errors. You have to sweat 2 times before payout,not worth it.

Draw is pure guess 80% of time,so after 5 games winning streak you can miss 15.

[Gaze73]

Ok, so what are your picks for the day? Let's see how "good" you are and post some of your draws. Pretty sure you'll go bust if you start posting them before the game instead of showing your wins after it finishes, long term at least.

Waste of time, I would have to post 1000 draws for you to conclude it's not just luck. And what would I gain? Nothing.

[Gaze73]

This games like Qatar ones books cancel later for obvious line errors. You have to sweat 2 times before payout,not worth it.

Draw is pure guess 80% of time,so after 5 games winning streak you can miss 15.

There's no guessing about it. When my numbers show value on the draw I bet the draw. E.g. 35% probability at 3.5 = 22% roi.

[Alfa1234]

Waste of time, I would have to post 1000 draws for you to conclude it's not just luck. And what would I gain? Nothing.

You would gain the knowledge of knowing you actually have no edge and have been getting lucky for a bit. This is like the 50th "system" you've come up with. You are always 100% convinced this is the one that'll make you rich until losses and reality set in. You will not win long term if you are not beating the closing line on average. Read that last sentence again. 50 times.