New to this site. Soccer question.

[danielbass]

Hello,
I haven't done much betting before and I wanted to ask a question about EPL soccer.
To my understanding there is 38 games per season for a selected team.
I have come up with this strategy and was hoping somebody could find the flaw in this:

You pick a team who you think will do very well e.g. manchester city.
Last year they won 27 games, and had 11 draws/losses total.
Imagine the odds for them winning every game they play is very low, say $1.05.
If I put $100 on them winning every game for the season my outcome would be
Winnings = 1.05 x 100 x 27 = $2835
Losses = 100 x 11 = $1100
Profit = $1735

There must be some obvious flaw that I am not seeing otherwise this would be an easy way to make money, especially if you increased the amount you put in.
Could someone tell me what is wrong with this?

Thank You

[phifedogg]

You're imagining that their odds would be -105 every single game. That's your flaw.

[danielbass]

True. But I used $1.05 odds as a worse case scenario. The real odds of them winning any game wouldn't be that low, I haven't looked but it could be anywhere around $1.05 - $2.50 depending on who they are versing.
If the odds are greater than $1.05 then wouldn't you make even more money?

[riffraff24]

yeah those odds wont happen. the reason why this strategy wont work is because your losses will be much heavier than your wins.

[danielbass]

Thanks for the fast responses, but I dont understand how those odds wont happen.
For example the next game of Newcastle vs. Man City
The odds of Man City winning this game is 1.61, if they win more than they draw/lose throughout the season and you're betting on them to win every game.. then wouldn't you make a profit?
Sorry for any confusion

[shari91]

This is why your strategy is flawed:

"Winnings = 1.05 x 100 x 27 = $2835
Losses = 100 x 11 = $1100
Profit = $1735"

Is incorrect. When you bet that $100 on a $1.05 team you only win $5 not $105. That $100 is a wash as it's just your money returned to you. So your actual profits would be 27 wins x $5 = $135

Meanwhile you've shelled out $1100 on 11 losses. Therefore you'd end up -$965 for the season.

[danielbass]

Oh thank you, yes that would make sense