trinitys road to brazil thread

thetrinity · 10-15-13, 11:07 PM

first thing id like to point out is that it will be winter in brazil. it will still be very humid no matter where you play, some places will still be hot and humid, i think itll be important to note where some of the european teams are playing.

thetrinity · 10-22-13, 01:38 PM

had the draw yesterday for the uefa playoffs to be held in november, team listed first hosts the first leg

8. portugal sweden

9. ukraine france

10. greece romania

11. iceland croatia

thetrinity · 11-19-13, 11:57 PM

Barring an act of god from new zealand or jordan the field is complete. Here are your teams

AFC/asia and australia (4)

Japan
Iran
Australia
South Korea

CONCACAF/north central and carribean islands (4)

USA
Honduras
Costa Rica
Mexico

CONEMBOL/south america (6)

Brazil
Argentina
Ecuador
Colombia (1st time since 98)
Chile
Uruguay

UEFA/europe (13)

Netherlands
Italy
Belgium
Switzerland
Germany
Russia
Spain
England
Bosnia (1st time in world cup)
Croatia
Greece
France
Portugal

CAF/africa (5)

Nigeria
Ivory Coast
Algeria
Ghana
Cameroon

Only team who will be playing in their first World Cup is Bosnia, and it should look a lot like 2010 to the rest of you all, only 8 teams made Brazil who were not in South Africa.

The draw is December 6, and thats when Ill start adding a lot more to this thread, I did this in 2010 (on my own) and it led to a very nice profit for South Africa, I hope it will help again.

thetrinity · 12-06-13, 08:09 PM

now we have some groups so i can to begin to break this down a little more.

Group A early thoughts:

Brazil are the obvious favorites, but I dont think this group is quite as easy as everyone else does.

Croatia and Mexico are pretty talented sides at least on paper, even though they struggled in qualifying. It should be a good battle for 2nd place, slight edge for Mexico since they avoid Brazil in the opener and get Cameroon instead, also because of potential climate issues.

Cameroon have some decent players, but they are clearly the 4th team. Any time you have a player like Samuel Eto'o, Im going to give you at least a punchers chance. Could be value in this side especially in the last match against a potentially watered down Brazil side.

thetrinity · 12-06-13, 08:24 PM

Group B early thoughts:

This is an extremely tough group, and has probably the best match of the first round when we get a rematch of 2010 final, between Spain and Netherlands. Spain does not feel quite as invincible after Brazil ripped them to shreds in the Confederation Cup, and theres at least a bit of a chance they wont even survive this group. Netherlands are the highest ranked unseeded team, and Chile have some firepower themselves. Chiles defense is well, suspect. They conceded 25 goals in CONEMBOL qualifying, but do have a bit of a home field advantage playing in Brazil, also potentially they can play from ahead since they start with Australia. Australia had some U G L Y results in friendlies and appear to be even weaker then the 2010 side which failed to advance, hard to see them doing much in this group.

thetrinity · 12-06-13, 08:40 PM

Group C early thoughts:

Colombia were impressive in CONEMBOL qualifying, even if they do not have a ton of big names, they play well as a unit, pekerman has done a good job.

Greece are solid not great side which tend to play lower scoring contests.

ivory coast appear to be the most talented african side, and are usually a trendy pick to go far, but they have disappointed up to this point in world cups.

Japan is probably the most talented of the asian sides, and were a big surprise in 2010, this time teams will be ready for them.

This appears to be a fairly wide open group, Colombia while favored are very unproven, this could end up being the most interesting of the groups.

thetrinity · 12-06-13, 08:59 PM

Group D thoughts:

Fairly solid group.

uruguay are the seeded team in this group even though they needed a playoff to qualify. they will be playing on home continent and get to start with the weakest link costa rica so they should have the advantage in this group.

costa rica appear to be headed for 4th in this group, they lived off home field in qualifying (won all 5 home fixtures in the hexagonal), and dont nearly have the talent of the other 3 teams.

england and italy, what can you really say. italy appear to be a little better side, expect a boring match out of these 2 in the opener, its the lowest lined total of any opening game, a loss likely would mean see you in 2018.

thetrinity · 12-06-13, 09:31 PM

Group E thoughts:

The swiss figured to be the worst of the number 1 seeds. Frankly, Im not sure how they got one. They qualified through what looks like the weakest UEFA group albeit unbeaten. This is more of a defensive side, so id have to lean to the unders for most of their games.

ecuador are not a flashy side either, they almost remind me of a conembol version of the swiss. like everyone else in the group, they have to feel its wide open for them.

france are a big name who im not much impressed with at all. they were shaky in qualifying and needed a massive win in the home leg which they got against the ukraine just to get here, and now they are the favorite of this weak group? I say prove it.

honduras appear to be one of the weakest sides of the whole tournament, im sure they are thankful to be in this group so they may even get a result or 2. they do have a win at azteca in qualifying under their belt as well as a home win against the usa, still would have to be considered long shots to advance even from here.

thetrinity · 12-06-13, 09:51 PM

Group F

The most lopsided group of them all. Argentina a very clear favorite here, in fact, I think argentina will be your champion of the whole tournament.

Bosnia are the only team making their debut this world cup, and are probably 2nd choice in this group. they have decent talent, argentina recently defeated them in a friendly a few weeks back 2-0 (in usa).

iran are a fairly weak side of mostly domestic players, while nigeria are a veteran of world cups. im sure both sides feel that if they can win the first game, they could advance from this group.

thetrinity · 12-06-13, 10:08 PM

Group G

The "group of death" in this tournament.

Germany are my 2nd choice to take it all after argentina, even in this tough group, they are decided favorites IMO.

Portugal are a bit of an enigma, they struggled in qualifying with 2 draws against isreal and a home draw against northern ireland. they did beat a good sweden side in the playoff, i do expect them to advance with germany.

ghana are a tough quality side, and a thorn in the other team in this group, the usas side. the usa are a big question mark, yes they dominated a weak concacaf, but how good really are they? they seem to relish the underdog role, but if they dont get a result against their nemisis ghana, it could all be over before it starts. klinsman is a better manager then they have had in the past, but it may not be enough to survive group g.

thetrinity · 12-06-13, 10:31 PM

Group H

belgium are the number 1 seed and a very underrated group IMO, they havent been in the finals since 2002, but they have a great crop of players. i do expect them to win this weak group and be in at least the quarterfinals. they were fairly dominate in a tough qualification group, they even took all the points in the road games.

algeria dont appear to have much of anything on their side, they got here after winning a playoff over burkina faso on away goals.

russia are a good side, basically a russian premier league all star team. they have some shaky road results in qualifying, a manager whos also a bit shaky IMO, and some bad road results overall (did beat portugal in their qualification group). the climate could also be an issue for so many players used to playing in colder temperatures. on paper, they should advance, but i wouldnt pencil them in just yet.

korea are a veteran of the world cup, this does not appear to be one of their stronger sides this time around however, they lost a home match to iran in the final qualifier and qualified almost on default, they also have a pretty raw manager. still, they have a few months to get it together and fairly managable group, if they advance i wouldnt be completely surprised.

ill be adding a lot to this over the next few months, feel free to add any comments or questions, hope you all have a great betting month for this event.

bosigga · 12-06-13, 11:35 PM

thanks for sharing, good analysis

I like Belgium but I feel we can no longer call them underrated or a dark horse, they are getting a lot of love. Great squad though, very solid all around. they should make a run

I wonder how much Ivory Coast will disappoint this time..they have a great chance to advance with that group

As for my country BiH, I'm very satisfied with our draw...Iran and Nigeria will probably lose to Argentina, and same for us..so we just need good results against Iran and Nigeria to advance.

thetrinity · 12-06-13, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by bosigga

thanks for sharing, good analysis

I like Belgium but I feel we can no longer call them underrated or a dark horse, they are getting a lot of love. Great squad though, very solid all around. they should make a run

I wonder how much Ivory Coast will disappoint this time..they have a great chance to advance with that group

As for my country BiH, I'm very satisfied with our draw...Iran and Nigeria will probably lose to Argentina, and same for us..so we just need good results against Iran and Nigeria to advance.

thanks, youre right, belgium was getting love from the espn heads this afternoon who usually only talk about england usa and mexico, so yea definitely not a darkhorse especially after a fairly manageable draw, im a bit concerned none of their players has been to world cup before. i do think ivory coast group is very wide open, they could win it or be sent home early either is in play. overall, im happy with the draw, lot of interesting games early on, a 2010 final rematch on the 2nd day, hard to top that.

thetrinity · 12-06-13, 11:51 PM

early leans:

netherlands NTL

chile australia o2.5

greece +1

england italy u2

swiss ecuador u2

honduras +1.5

ghana pk

south korea NTL

thetrinity · 05-21-14, 10:19 AM

seems like a good time to dig this up now that the main european leagues are finished and squads are now being assembled for this tournament.

in the first somewhat relevant friendly, the dutch drew ecuador last saturday 1-1 at home, it looks like they dominated the play from the stats. this was a typical ecuador type game, they were a very low scoring team in qualifying, but they did not concede many goals either. lots of world cup teams will get started with friendlies monday, they will pretty much be running up til the 8th of june. please feel free to add anything that might be important.

thetrinity · 05-21-14, 10:32 AM

some futures im pondering:

Cameroon to advance from group a +475 (mostly odds based)

colombia not to win group c about even money

korea to advance from group h +175

france not to win group e about even money

JayLA · 05-23-14, 02:05 AM

Originally posted by thetrinity

colombia not to win group c about even money

Lol who wins group c?

Vaughany · 05-23-14, 03:32 AM

locked in Spain DNB @ -200 against Holland early on. -275 now tho

thetrinity · 05-23-14, 06:00 PM

Originally posted by JayLA

Lol who wins group c?

Someone else. Not really that high on this team. Other 3 sides are solid

thetrinity · 05-23-14, 06:05 PM

For these first games of the group stage don't be surprised to see 1 0 a lot. Hard to take the overs. I think only 1 over cashed in 2010 for the opening games.

JayLA · 05-23-14, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by thetrinity

Someone else. Not really that high on this team. Other 3 sides are solid

I think you're underestimating the Colombian side but we'll see. Good luck

thetrinity · 05-23-14, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by JayLA

I think you're underestimating the Colombian side but we'll see. Good luck

the other thing i was thinking was that winning this group is not that big of a deal. group d is stacked, so a tough game awaits regardless.

thetrinity · 05-26-14, 03:41 PM

Some friendlies involving WC squads today, home team on left, venue if neutral site:

Australia 1-1 South Africa

Iran 0-0 Montenegro (austria)

Cameroon 2-0 Macedonia (austria)

Belgium 5-1 Luxembourg

Russia 1-0 Slovakia

thetrinity · 05-26-14, 03:46 PM

Looks like its going to be a long 3 games for Australia, maybe even longer then even expected, South Africa brought a fairly weak side to the game and managed a draw anyways.

Some games tomorrow:

Japan-Cyprus

France-Norway

USA-Azerbaijan

KalouKalou · 05-26-14, 08:51 PM

Where was the belgium game?

thetrinity · 05-26-14, 10:37 PM

it was in belgium, lukaku hat trick in that one, luxembourg scored early fwiw.

im about as interested as possible in the usa friendly tomorrow, want to see how they come out without donovan against a weak opponent also want to see if the crowd reacts some way like they did at galaxy game sunday.

thetrinity · 05-27-14, 01:04 PM

rumored starting 11 for the states tonight looks like this

—————-Howard————

—Johnson–Besler–Cameron–Beasley———

—Jones—–Bradley——

—Zusi———Dempsey———-Bedoya———

-Altidore—————-

Big Bear · 05-27-14, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by thetrinity

early leans:

netherlands NTL

chile australia o2.5

greece +1

england italy u2

swiss ecuador u2

honduras +1.5

ghana pk

south korea NTL

NTL is not to lose? what is the price on that?

thetrinity · 05-27-14, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by Big Bear

NTL is not to lose? what is the price on that?

its plus a half goal different prices for different bets

thetrinity · 05-27-14, 11:05 PM

scores today

4 france norway 0

1 japan cyprus 0

2 usa azerbaijan 0

games wednesday

south korea tunisia

nigeria scotland (england)

mexico israel

thetrinity · 05-28-14, 10:19 AM

espnfc has also started their countdown of top 50 world cup players, no usa players made it, not really a surprise, but i figured they would sneak one in there anyways. tim howard would make the top 100 IMO. daniel sturridge is ranked 46th, and he was second in the premier league in goals.

Big Bear · 05-28-14, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by thetrinity

espnfc has also started their countdown of top 50 world cup players, no usa players made it, not really a surprise, but i figured they would sneak one in there anyways. tim howard would make the top 100 IMO. daniel sturridge is ranked 46th, and he was second in the premier league in goals.

this is a good tool. Its a shame it takes so long for them to release all 50.

The 2010 list helped me decide on putting a futures bet on Spain last time around. Spain had a ton of top 15 players, the probably with spain is most of their players are old now.

thetrinity · 05-28-14, 10:54 PM

ya i like the list myself bear. im watching the preview show right now, i taped it, was on during nba game.

finals wednesday

0 south korea tunisia 1

2 nigeria scotland 2

3 mexico israel 0

tomorrows games

cameroon paraguay (austria)

honduras turkey (usa)

interesting to see how korea does against ghana, you shouldnt being losing to the likes of tunisia at home tho, friendly or not

thetrinity · 05-28-14, 11:10 PM

dont get that espnfc world cup guide they are selling, it completely sucks. nothing interesting in it at all. a couple puff pieces on the usa, pretty basic information overall.