Ole Miss By Damn! (Picks Thread)

[olemissbydamn]

Gold Cup Qualifying action tonight:

T&T/El Salvador DRAW +187 for 1 unit
Honduras -173 for 1 unit

My single unit is valued at $100

BOL.

[frugalgambler]

Cashed. Was spot on with that, Alloa gets one in the 71st and holds on for the win.

Overall Record: 17-12-1 (w-l-d) draw = push

I'm going to look at these GC Quallys and come back with some picks in a bit.

Your record is nice but it does not tell much if you do not sum up your winnings in terms of units. One can be betting heavy chalk and have a stellar record while still losing money.

[olemissbydamn]

Well if I'm betting 1u on everything logically with my record I'm not losing anything if at all unless my losses are heavily juiced. I post the odds at which I take everything so it's easily calculate how much I'm risking if you know I'm betting 100 everytime. For the record I am up though, decent amt.

[olemissbydamn]

By losing I meant overall

[olemissbydamn]

Gold Cup Qualifying action tonight:

T&T/El Salvador DRAW +187 for 1 unit
Honduras -173 for 1 unit

My single unit is valued at $100

BOL.

Cashed on both.

Overall Record: 19-12-1 (w-l-d) draw = push

Units wagered today:

Alloa Athletic = Risked 1.09 to win 1 unit
T&T/El Salvador Draw = Risked 1 unit to win 1.87 units
Honduras = Risked 1.73 units to win 1 unit

Overall Winnings for today = +3.87 units

Great to go 3-0 today after the shoddy day yesterday, all about how you bounce back. Got some great games on tomorrow, every which way of the USA game is juicy but still worth taking as Belize might as well be a Tahiti. Will look at some others tomorrow and see what else I like.

[frugalgambler]

Nice call on the draw. Tailed you on that play, got a bit lucky with the goalpost being hit near the end of the game.

[olemissbydamn]

Yeah very fortunate with that, the guy completely missed an easy rebound that would have been a goal. Ill take it.

Couple day games I'm going to get on:

Jeunesse Esch +882 .5u -- this is a "for fun" long shot bet that I don't really expect to hit but on the off chance that it did, would be awesome.

Differdange FC -101 1u -- hopefully covers my other bet should it not hit, like them today to win again

Bol.

[frugalgambler]

I am taking the under on Differdange: the host will be happy with a draw and I think both teams will struggle to score. GL to you as well.

[Akatana]

Gold Cup Qualifying action tonight:

T&T/El Salvador DRAW +187 for 1 unit
Honduras -173 for 1 unit

My single unit is valued at $100

BOL.

Nicely done!

[olemissbydamn]

Yeah very fortunate with that, the guy completely missed an easy rebound that would have been a goal. Ill take it.

Couple day games I'm going to get on:

Jeunesse Esch +882 .5u -- this is a "for fun" long shot bet that I don't really expect to hit but on the off chance that it did, would be awesome.

Differdange FC -101 1u -- hopefully covers my other bet should it not hit, like them today to win again

Bol.

Well the longshot didn't pay but it was pretty exciting for the few minutes when they tied it up before losing. Oh well, at least my full unit bet paid.

Overall Record: 20-13-1 (w-l-d) draw = push

Units Wagered Today (so far):

Jeunesse Esch -- Lost .5u to win 4.41 units
Differange FC -- Risked 1 unit to win 1 unit

So far today: +.5 units

Got some great Gold Cup action tonight. Not sure what I'm going to go with yet, but I'll post it here when I do.

[olemissbydamn]

Gold Cup Action:

Just fired in Costa Rica -2 @ -175 (1 unit) -- Costa Rica is obviously an up and comer in CONCACAF, number 2 in the hexagonal for WCQ, and taking the Gold Cup very seriously. Cuba has won one Gold Cup match in their history, and are in pretty poor form (as usual). I could see a push here but I don't see Costa Rica winning by less than 2 and certainly not losing.

Bol. Will be posting comments around the Soccer forum during the game and finishing up some final research for the USA/Belize matchup.

[olemissbydamn]

Costa Rica -2 CASHED.

Risked 1.75 unites to win 1 unit

USA/Belize

Taking o2.5 -405

Risking 4.05 units to win 1 unit -- Heavy juice, I know, but if this somehow doesn't hit I deserve to lose, I don't know what else to say about this one.

[olemissbydamn]

Costa Rica -2 CASHED.

Risked 1.75 unites to win 1 unit

USA/Belize

Taking o2.5 -405

Risking 4.05 units to win 1 unit -- Heavy juice, I know, but if this somehow doesn't hit I deserve to lose, I don't know what else to say about this one.

Cashed.

Overall Record: 22-13-1 (w-l-d) draw=push

Units Wagered Today:

Jeunesse Esch -- Lost .5u to win 4.41 units
Differange FC -- Risked 1 unit to win 1 unit
Costa Rica -- Risked 1.75 units to win 1 unit
USA/Belize o2.5 -- Risked 4.05 units to win 1 unit

Overall Loot for Today: +2.5 units

Other than my "exotic" bet on the huge underdog I had another great day. I love CONCACAF Gold Cup so I haven't even looked at the card for tomorrow but I will in the morning as I always do with a cup of joe in hand. Bol for anyone betting on the J-League games early in the morning!

[cogiditopapa]

Great job bro, I'll follow your thread!

[olemissbydamn]

Morning everyone,

FIFA U20 WC Action: France/Ghana o3 (edited to 3, 2.5 was my bad )@ -140 (1unit)

Both teams are more than capable of scoring goals, and both teams have had ample time off to rest (especially France). I believe France is the best team left in this tournament with the way they have been playing recently but Ghana is dangerous. I expect a 2-1 France kind of game. Bol.

[olemissbydamn]

Also putting a unit on Karlsruher SC +105

[O]

Morning everyone,

FIFA U20 WC Action: France/Ghana o2.5 @ -140 (1unit)

Both teams are more than capable of scoring goals, and both teams have had ample time off to rest (especially France). I believe France is the best team left in this tournament with the way they have been playing recently but Ghana is dangerous. I expect a 2-1 France kind of game. Bol.

Where are you getting 2.5 -140 an hour before start? MOst books have 3 -120. I think you are fudging a bit my friend. either BOL. I'm on it too.

[olemissbydamn]

Where are you getting 2.5 -140 an hour before start? MOst books have 3 -120. I think you are fudging a bit my friend. either BOL. I'm on it too.

That was a typo, my bad, I got o3 @ -140

[O]

So you are betting a push expecting a 2-1 game with the hope to get an extra goal for the win? Again, either way.... BOL

[olemissbydamn]

Well this morning when I was looking at it I could of swore it said o2.5 -- so that's why I bet it, but I was obviously wrong. If I would of been a little more alert and saw 3 I probably would NOT of taken it. But hoping for a push at this point. You satisfied now?

[O]

Well this morning when I was looking at it I could of swore it said o2.5 -- so that's why I bet it, but I was obviously wrong. If I would of been a little more alert and saw 3 I probably would NOT of taken it. But hoping for a push at this point. You satisfied now?

Born satisfied. You just weren't making sense and posting lines that haven't been up for days an hour before start time. Are you satisfied with your bet? That's what you should worry about. Positive attitude my friend. I'm just trying to clarify to follow line movement not to bust your balls.

[olemissbydamn]

Born satisfied. You just weren't making sense and posting lines that haven't been up for days an hour before start time. Are you satisfied with your bet? That's what you should worry about. Positive attitude my friend. I'm just trying to clarify to follow line movement not to bust your balls.

Unfortunately typos do exist I can't be spot on every post. Well considering I predicted a 2-1 anyway, which would be a push, I have to say I'm not overly unhappy with my bet. Take a push over a loss any day.

[O]

Goooooaaaaaal! Let's get one more for the win!

Typo? 2.5 compared to 3.0 is quite the typo. Again, I don't care and it really doesnt matter ......was just trying to see if lines were shifting dramatically at other books.

[olemissbydamn]

Goooooaaaaaal! Let's get one more for the win!

Typo? 2.5 compared to 3.0 is quite the typo. Again, I don't care and it really doesnt matter ......was just trying to see if lines were shifting dramatically at other books.

Don't know what else you'd like to call it, I obviously typed the wrong thing not realizing it until you pointed it out. Early in the morning, in a rush, just trying to put up a few plays. But yeah, one more goal would be quite nice.

[olemissbydamn]

Push on the France/Ghana o3 bet. Adding Uruguay ML -150 (1 unit). Bol.

[Akatana]

BOL Uruguay will do it! I'm also on the ML

[olemissbydamn]

Push on the France/Ghana o3 bet. Adding Uruguay ML -150 (1 unit). Bol.

Unfortunately Uruguay could not capitalize on numerous chances to get a good lead in this game and it went to extra time at 1-1.

Overall Record: 23-14-2 (w-l-d) draw = push

[olemissbydamn]

Two more bets for the card today, they may look a little shaky but I'll explain:

Newell's Old Boys +447 1unit

Newell's Old Boys/Atletico Mineiro 1H DRAW +117 1unit

I know that NOB only needs a draw or to not give up their goal differential to go through, but I think this creates a desperate AM side. I know this is a pretty slim chance of happening, but I could see AM making some mistakes when pushing forward and possibly allowing a counter attacking goal // breakdown if it stays close near the end.

The first half draw is meant to cover the "exotic" sort of bet I suppose you could say. I think this will be an extremely tight game and I don't think anyone will have an advantage by the end of the first half. Hoping this one can hit to cover the other in the event AM comes out in the second half and starts to dominate, but as always either team could steal an early goal from each other.

Bol.

[olemissbydamn]

Wasn't watching the game but pretty crappy NOB gave up a 4th minute goal and the half ended 1-0. Looks like from the stats they are content sitting back and playing defense so the odds of my exotic ML hitting are slim to none, but you never know what can happen in a half. I figured I was doing well enough this week to place a riskier bet on this game to see if it would pay, it happens!

[olemissbydamn]

Not a great day yesterday, but it happens. Seems like whenever a Spanish speaking team is involved for me nothing goes well, might need to take note of that.. someday. Anyway tons of EL games on today, made a few morning picks:

FK HORIZONT TURNOVO +139 1unit
F91 DUDELANGE +101 1unit

BOL

Overall Record: 23-16-2

[olemissbydamn]

Just a heads up went ahead and jumped on Panama -.5 @ -131 earlier. Martinique isn't the worst team ever but they had Canada making them look a lot better than they really are. Expect Panama to win by 2 goals.

[frugalgambler]

The odds are +100 now. Sometimes jumping in early is not the best thing you ca do.

[olemissbydamn]

The odds are +100 now. Sometimes jumping in early is not the best thing you ca do.

Well I can't really predict the future so I go with what I think will happen, did the opposite this time but usually I'm right when I think a line is undervalued. Anyway may put a bigger play on them if it heads in that direction.

[olemissbydamn]

Adding St. Patricks Athletic -108 1unit. First pick didn't cash, second one not looking good. Maybe I should stay away from the EL, but I'm degen betting at this point being bored at work. Bol.

[olemissbydamn]

I am getting absolutely buried today, may make a big play on Mexico to either get it all back + some or lose a lot. We'll see.