The Strongest

[Mrscofield25]

because if the game lands on 3 goals you still win something when you bet on the AH for 2.5-3. It is very common for a game to end with only 3 goals, so over the long run you can win more money betting on the AH than on the O3 at better odds.

You will not win more over the long run, only betting over 2,75 in games with 3 goals because the over 2,75 only gives you a 50% win. I'll rather take a couple of more pushes with over 3 than ONLY getting a 50% win with over 2,75. If you bet 10 games where the over 2,5 gives you an odds of 1,70 and over 2,75 gives you an odds with 1,83, you will definitely win more with over 2,5 at 1,70 IF there only will be scored 3 goals, than you'll win with over 2,75 at 1,83. Do the math on paper yourself and you will see.

[Mrscofield25]

and if there's 3 goals scored I will win half my bet... why would i want to settle for a push when 3 goals will get me a 50% win if I took over 2.75?

Either way, my book (5d) only has over 2.75 listed anyway

Why even bet it if you only are interested in getting a 50% win?

[FindTheLock]

I don't need to do the math on that scenario, because what you were arguing was the O3 compared to the O2.75 AH. Do the math on that and see how much more you win when the games land on exactly 3 goals. 3 goals is much more common than 4+ goals. Your original suggestion was to bet the O3 compared to the O2.75, but then you use my logic to say that betting O2.5 at worse odds will win more than O2.75, and that is exactly the reason why the AH of O2.75 is more profitable than O3 in the long run.....

[Mrscofield25]

I don't need to do the math on that scenario, because what you were arguing was the O3 compared to the O2.75 AH. Do the math on that and see how much more you win when the games land on exactly 3 goals. 3 goals is much more common than 4+ goals. Your original suggestion was to bet the O3 compared to the O2.75, but then you use my logic to say that betting O2.5 at worse odds will win more than O2.75, and that is exactly the reason why the AH of O2.75 is more profitable than O3 in the long run.....

I can't support you in that argument that 3 goals is more common than 4+ goals. Sorry. But yes, you are correct that IF the goal scoring is excactly 3 goals, then will over 2,75 be more profitable than over 3. But over 2,75 will NEVER be more profitable than over 2,5 goals if the game lands on 3 goals exact.

[swordsandtequila]

Keep in mind, books available to US players don't offer the same or as many spread options as non-US friendly books. More often than not you takes what you can gets.

[pattymayo]

I hate that. Need 1 goal in final 40 min and we get zilch

[onemoregoal]

Why bet on games you clearly know nothing about?
Its true theres lots of goals in Bolivia but the odds also reflect this, its not like the books are oblivious to the fact Bolivia is high scoring.
Sure you could win, but you could win on the slots - wheres the edge here?

[pattymayo]

Why bet on games you clearly know nothing about?
Its true theres lots of goals in Bolivia but the odds also reflect this, its not like the books are oblivious to the fact Bolivia is high scoring.
Sure you could win, but you could win on the slots - wheres the edge here?

I don't look at sports betting that way. I bet on bolivia soccer despite not knowing a thing about it because I believe you don't necessarily have to know anything about anything to win. Guys watch NFL religiously every Sunday and still can't produce a winning season. I watch every Nets game and know everything about that team yet I still lose betting on them

Where's the edge anywhere in sports betting? It's all a gamble

All I know is since I've created this thread, The Strongest games have gone over 3 goal 4 of their 7 games

Ill take that profit

[pattymayo]

In 21 games since Sept 2012, 16 Strongest games saw 3+ goals, while 10 games saw 4+ goals

I don't need to know a thing about Bolivia soccer to know that putting 1 unit on every Over in Strongest games will yield a profit long term

[onemoregoal]

21 games isnt a lot though is it?
Books would be out of business if it was that easy.
Anyway, GL.

[pattymayo]

21 games isnt a lot though is it?
Books would be out of business if it was that easy.
Anyway, GL.

Of course it's not a lot of games. But it's been pretty profitable so far. I'm all about finding trends and riding them out especially in soccer. It's pointless racking your brain trying to find an "edge" that doesn't even really exist.

I'd rather find some stats that says "lately , betting this has hit 10 of last 15 times" and taking my chances.

[onemoregoal]

There is an edge. ESPECIALLY with minor leagues like Bolivia. Im from UK so books here have no idea and rely on people to actually bet, rather than their excuse at "odds compilers". Often the starting price on the ML is "off" and come KO it will come to what it should have been in the first place.

With minor leagues, knowledge is power in my opinion.

And the books know this, which is one of the reasons why often their limits are less, Books focus on the big leagues where the prices are sharp and your opinion of their being "no edge" is valid for these leagues imo.
The Strongest, from memory have a lot of government links, its a corrupt league also - but for goals, i guess it could be fun - so GL.

[PuckIt]

Looks good tonight.

[onemoregoal]

The Strongest were very strong tonight.

[PuckIt]

some haters making people miss out on money...

last 6 matches:

4-0
2-3
1-1
2-1
3-1
4-1 (tonight)

[onemoregoal]

just won 2k, blooming was fixed: another goal after 87 mins was 1.87 lol, it came on 94 free kick


Bolivia Primera Division

1x2HandicapOver / Under

3-187:53

Blooming La Paz FC Draw

-0/0.5 1.81 +0/0.5 2.03

o4.5 1.87 u4.5 1.95

+2

[onemoregoal]

Wasnt hating, just interested into why people bet...Just asking for reasons, dont see anything wrong with that and I dont think the OP took offence to anything I said.
Anyway, good luck.

[PuckIt]

Strongest / Sao Paulo tonight!

[pattymayo]

I'm definitely taking the over 3.5 at plus money. São Paulo is nasty they should have no problem scoring 3... I just hope Strongest puts one in.

I don't trust these Bolivia teams playing outside of Bolivia but I think we see some goals tonight

[pattymayo]

Locked in Over 3.5 at +106 earlier.. lines been dropping all day +102 now.

[onemoregoal]

Good chance of a penalty to help your overs, Im on SP to score at least 3....

[pattymayo]

One of these damned Copa games has to go over today. i've been on both overs so far in the two early games and both needed 1 goal in last 30+ min and neither hit. I hate that.

[dk70]

What's Sao Paulo's line-up looking like? Considering using them to finish out a parlay.

[pattymayo]

@SaoPauloFC: @SaoPauloFC: Rogério Ceni; Douglas, Lúcio, Rafael Toloi e Cortez; Wellington e Denilson; Jadson, Aloísio e Osvaldo; Luis Fabiano

[PuckIt]

looks like we're screwed for O3.5

[onemoregoal]

So lame. They dont care though, they won.
Fuckers.

[dk70]

Strongest are playing tonight home against Atletico **. Over is 2.5 @ -133. Is this the first time in a while that they've had a O/U lined at 2.5? Atl ** is +230

[PuckIt]

Yes indeed...I don't think I have ever seen it at 2.5 since the creation of this thread...

[dk70]

Perhaps Atl ** don't care much for this game since they lead their group at 3-0. Lineups will tell the story.

5dimes is even offering an O2, 2.5 line when I last looked.

If anyone is familiar with the lineups of these two teams, I'd like to hear what you have to say when they come out later tonight. thnaks

[dk70]

** ?

[dk70]

Why does (**) get starred? Is this some new swear word I don't know about? lol

[dk70]

M......G......! Hope I don't get banned

[PuckIt]

I'm confused, what is getting starred?

[dk70]

M...G... was getting starred. **

[pattymayo]

its getting starred because its a type of financial transaction, which sbr does not allow discussions about

I might play this over.. wish I could get it at 3 at + money