3 games in Brazil's Serie A tonight, here is where i see some value
Flamengo vs Bahia - Under 2.5 goals (1.9) - 62% of Flamengo's home games have gone under 2.5 goals and 54% of Bahia's away matches have gone under as well. Only two of Flamengo's 7 home matches against teams in the bottom half of the standings have gone over and also only one in six of Bahia's away games have seen 3 or more. Specially key is the fact that both team will have important strikers out of the game - Wagner Love is suspended for Flamengo and Jones and Souza will not play due to injury for Bahia. Expecting a tight game between two evenly matched sides, both improving production recently.
Portuguesa -0.5/-1 vs Sport Recife (1.94) - Portuguesa is a very decent home team, sitting 10th in the home standings and only 15 overall. Recife is a bad overall team and even worse away from home (17th overall and 18th away from home, with a single win on the road in 13 games). Portuguesa does especially well against the bottom half of the standing teams - they have 5 wins in 6 matches, all of them by multiple goals.
Thought about the over on the Coritiba-Bragantino, but price is dropping and don't like it very much. If you can find over 2.5 at about 1.9 you should take, but 5Dimes has it at 1.79 so not much value there.
Best of luck on your plays guys, cheers.
Flamengo vs Bahia - Under 2.5 goals (1.9) - 62% of Flamengo's home games have gone under 2.5 goals and 54% of Bahia's away matches have gone under as well. Only two of Flamengo's 7 home matches against teams in the bottom half of the standings have gone over and also only one in six of Bahia's away games have seen 3 or more. Specially key is the fact that both team will have important strikers out of the game - Wagner Love is suspended for Flamengo and Jones and Souza will not play due to injury for Bahia. Expecting a tight game between two evenly matched sides, both improving production recently.
Portuguesa -0.5/-1 vs Sport Recife (1.94) - Portuguesa is a very decent home team, sitting 10th in the home standings and only 15 overall. Recife is a bad overall team and even worse away from home (17th overall and 18th away from home, with a single win on the road in 13 games). Portuguesa does especially well against the bottom half of the standing teams - they have 5 wins in 6 matches, all of them by multiple goals.
Thought about the over on the Coritiba-Bragantino, but price is dropping and don't like it very much. If you can find over 2.5 at about 1.9 you should take, but 5Dimes has it at 1.79 so not much value there.
Best of luck on your plays guys, cheers.
