Inkbets

GDaddy46 · 09-14-20, 03:44 PM

B* NFL: New York Giants +6 @ 1.926/-108

-Wouldn't be on this game if the line didn't jump to 6, but here we are. However I do genuinely like the Giants in this game for a smaller play.

All everybody talks about is the Steelers defense and how they set the sack record last year blah blah blah.. I'm not nearly as big on them as all of the talking heads and casual fantasy people. Consider this: they broke the sack record last year with 54 which is an average of 3.375 sacks per game. However, that number is greatly inflated from a few of the worst teams we've seen in NFL history. They recorded the following: 8 vs CIN, 4 vs CIN, 4 vs MIA, 5 vs ARI. Three of the bottom 5 offensive lines in the entire NFL and 2 QB's who aren't mobile in the slightest as well as a rookie QB. That's 21 sacks in 4 games, and only 33 in the other 12 showings. Putting them at 2.75 sacks/gm in those other 12. Right about the league average last year.

Don't get me wrong, the Giants line isn't terrific but PFF has their unit ranked 20th and Brandon Thorn has them at 21st. Lower half, but couple a "respectable" O-Line with a QB that isn't afraid to run and I don't see pressure being a huge issue here unlike everybody else on the planet.

Onto the next step of discrediting the Steelers D: their takeaways. 8 combined takeaways in 3 games between CIN & MIA, 2 of the worst 3 teams in the NFL last year. They forced 22 fumbles and 20 INT's. Fumbles here won't be that easy. Saquon fumbled ONCE in 3 years at Penn St, and just once in his 2019 rookie campaign. Two fumbles in 4 years. You'll be hard pressed to force a turnover out of him.

Mike Tomlin said James Conner is their "bellcow" and the offense runs through him. Him and Saquon running a lot = clock running. Can't help but take the +6 here.. too high of a number for the home team on shortened camps.. people buying HIGH on Steelers D as well as the team in general. Outright potential here as well for the Giants.

GDaddy46 · 09-17-20, 03:27 PM

B* NFL: Cleveland Browns -5.5 @ 1.909/-110
-This is buying a half pt on Bookmaker. Significantly better line than other books

-The Browns got the piss beat out of them last week but I couldn't care less about that performance. The Ravens are going to be on a revenge tour after blowing last season, and they lost at home to the Browns last season. They had far more continuity and took advantage of a newly assembled coaching staff in the Browns. Can write that game off as a mismatch through and through.

As for the matchup at hand, I don't see a single advantage that Cincinnati holds over Cleveland. It's too early to call Burrow better than Baker and Mixon has a bad matchup here. Cincinnati's OLine is atrocious. There's no way around it. And now they have to go up against a top 3 defensive lineman in the NFL in Myles Garrett. He'll have an absolute field day on the edge and be pressuring Burrow to run or potentially make an errant throw as he did vs the Chargers.

Cincinnati's defense did just enough to game the game managing Tyrod Taylor from pulling away last week. I don't think they have that luxury here. Baker has big arm potential and presumably having time to sit in the pocket here is a huge plus for his style of quarterbacking. Chubb won't be locked down as he was by Baltimore as well.

Very difficult for me to see Cincinnati covering this game. Huge game for Stefanski & company to make their mark after being trashed last week by the best team in the AFC. Got the Browns by double digits in this one.

GDaddy46 · 09-18-20, 04:23 PM

C* MLB: Cleveland Indians -1.5 @ 1.719/-139
-Plesac had an outing very out of the ordinary versus Minnesota in his last start, but the Twins have owned the Indians all season long. Not the case for the Tigers who are 2-5 vs CLE this year. Tigers are 1-7 last 8 games Fulmer started vs a winning record team, and this fits that mold. Tigers haven't seen Plesac yet this year and only have a combined 14 at bats vs him. No familiarity is a downside vs a GOOD pitcher. Indians own Fulmer, Lindor hitting .409 on 22 AB, Santana .333 on 15 AB, and Naquin .636 on 11 AB.. game has blowout written all over it. One team in the playoff hunt, one isn't.

C* MLB: Cincinnati Reds ML @ 1.847/-118
-Reds are barely ahead of the Cards & Brewers in the playoff race and need to start winning games like this to secure a spot. White Sox already clinched and at this point are just playing to maintain form and for seeding. Stiever looked good in his debut but it was against the lackluster Tigers. The lineups are night & day from DET to CIN. Huge game for Cinci to get back to .500 here and I'd personally favor them a decent bit more than this line.

GDaddy46 · 09-19-20, 03:11 PM

B* NCAAF: Marshall +5.5 @ 1.909/-110
-App St might have a 23rd ranking next to their name but that's only because of the Big Ten/PAC12 not being in the top 25. They hardly even crack the top 40 with those conferences included. I was dead wrong on betting against Marshall and it backfired heavily. 59-0 Marshall beatdown saw that EKU +24 bet dead after a quarter. I'll hop fence and back Marshall in this game. Their QB has a ridiculously accurate arm and I'm not sure that's necessarily being accounted for here. Majority of the bets are on App St, likely because of the ranking and not many people having watched that Marshall game. This team is good. They play hard, and their QB is a stud in the making. Like outright potential but just taking the points.

B* NCAAF: Louisville ML @ 2.00/+100
A* NCAAF: Louisville -6 @ 2.88+188
-Miami is overhyped. Louisville is the better team in this game. Better QB, better coach, better results last year. Only logic for Miami getting all this hype is D'Eriq King but I'd put Cunningham as the better QB in this game. King is vastly overrated and won't have a chance in the NFL just like another Houston QB in Greg Ward. Louisville should win this game by 7+ so taking a ringer on the -6 alt line on top of ML

C* MLB: Cincinnati Reds ML @ 1.793/-126
-People are fully buying into the White Sox hype train apparently as the majority of bets on this game are showing to be on them. Don't think that's the case here. Bauer dominated the White Sox hitters for years when he was on the Indians and is in maybe the best form of his life this year in Cinci. Better pitcher, team that needs the win more, and a better matchup for the batters all favor Cincinatti. At a short favorite price this ones no question to me.

GDaddy46 · 09-20-20, 11:44 AM

C* NFL: Philadelphia Eagles ML @ 1.80/-125
-The overreaction special of the week. The Eagles lost to a team that is perceived to be horrible in Washington (which we had WAS in) while the Rams beat a perennially hyped up Cowboys team. If you watched the Rams game last week you'd know McCarthy's nonsensical call in the red zone cost them that game - not being outplayed by the Rams. The Rams ability to make plays disappeared after Dallas made necessary adjustments. With tape to go off of here and travelling cross country for the Rams, love the Eagles in this spot. Nice cozy LA weather and practicing on turf to low 60's on natural grass when your body clock is set to 10am for kickoff. Eagles in this game.

C* NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 @ 1.97/-103
-The Panthers very well may have the worst defense in the NFL. They got torched last week by the Raiders and now have to play an even more potent offense. Tampa Bay having a week under their belt now should help them greatly. Off a shortened camp the timings weren't there and Brady threw an uncharacteristic 2 INT's last week. Somebody with the work ethic that he has won't let that happen again. Godwin is out but that doesn't bother me in the slightest.. Brady can't throw a deep ball anyways. They'll simply wear down the Panthers and clear this victory by double digits.

B* NFL: Miami Dolphins +6 @ 1.87/-115
-Love the Bills this year but no chance I would feel comfortable laying 6 on the road here. They consistently fail to close games out and let opponents claw back regularly and now will be going from low humidity mid-60's practice weather to high 80's and humid in a real game environment. Miami is nowhere near as bad as they were last year and catching 6 at home here is too much to pass on.

GDaddy46 · 09-24-20, 07:04 PM

C* NFL: Miami Dolphins +3 @ 1.95/-105
-With Chark out for the Jags, that negates the Byron Jones injury for the Dolphins in a big way. Their clear cut #1 WR is out for the game. The Dolphins pass rush is solid and Minshew should have issues tonight without Chark to clear space in a hurry.

The Dolphins have had the better showings with respectable showings vs the Patriots & Bills. Jags have as well, but we can't forget they were favored to be the WORST record in the NFL going into this year. They aren't just suddenly good and I'm not buying round 2 of Minshew Mania. Got the Dolphins outright in this game.

GDaddy46 · 09-25-20, 01:10 AM

C* NFL: New Orleans Saints -3 @ 1.909/-110
-It's very, very hard to see a team involving Sean Payton & Drew Brees getting embarrassed on national television in back to back weeks. I expect a concerted effort from the Saints compared to what they put out last week vs the Raiders.

A huge portion of that game was the Raiders controlling the line on offense and being able to milk clock. Marcus Davenport being out proved fatal in that regard, but he's returned to practice. That is a vital piece of the puzzle versus a QB who can scramble and evade as good as anybody in Aaron Rodgers.

Even if Michael Thomas misses another game this week, the Saints having that extra time to prepare without him is pivotal. I don't see the Saints dropping back to back primetime games here. The Packers came back last week from a 3-14 deficit but if they fall behind here they won't have that luxury. If the Saints start out hot -- they won't look back. Another situation where the public is pouring it on the hot team and they will get punished for it. Saints on a slight -3 line at home is a no brainer.

C* NFL: Buffalo Bills ML @ 1.813/-123
-I will gladly take the home team here in this game. I'd be far more hesitant to do so, but the Rams travel has been less than ideal especially with travel conditions being abnormal given the pandemic. Back to back weeks of being on the east coast is less than ideal and practice conditions aren't nearly the same. I love the Bills this year and this is a huge swing game for them. People were quick to discredit Josh Allen but he spent the entire season last year without a receiver over 6 feet tall. Now with the addition of Stefon Diggs he leads the NFL in passing yards having a superstar #1 target with some height to him. Now that we've seen two weeks, the Rams beat an overrated Cowboys team as well as an Eagles team that is very evidently pathetic and now people want to buy high on them talking about them looking like the Rams we saw in the Super Bowl. Public is pouring it on the Rams and in a huge statement game I'll take the home team here.

GDaddy46 · 09-26-20, 01:29 PM

C* NCAAF: Kentucky +4 1H @ 1.885/-113
-Opting for the 1st half line because I think it's necessary they cover 1H if they are going to cover the game. UK gets their starting QB in Wilson back after he missed last season with injury, their starting RB back, 4 starting offensive lineman, and 7 starters on defense. They're full of juniors and seniors on both sides of the ball and can finally put up a fight in the SEC to some extent.

Kentucky had the 11th ranked defensive line on football outsiders for last year, Auburn had the 39th ranked offensive line. In a game where controlling Bo Nix will be key, that's a matchup favoring Kentucky. They also have 2 stud linebackers to help that cause.

Matchup wise, UK fares pretty well. My only concern is general conditioning, discipline, and coaching over the course of the entire game. To cover full game, UK has to cover the 1H in my opinion so I'll just take the half line.

C* NCAAF: LSU -14 @ 1.90/-111
-I wouldn't lay this a half point past 14. Line is from Bookmaker buying the half point.

Stingley was announced out and the line has tanked. He very well may be the best DB in the entire country, but the overadjustment is uncalled for. He was 1 of only 2 returning starters for LSU on the defense but they have a boatload of players who got a ton of snaps last year and are more than capable of doing their job.

KJ Costello transferred from Stanford to Miss St.. and as much as I like his arm talent and think he was limited at Stanford, he lacks prep time here. Zone blocking scheme for them on the O-Line can be punished here and I think LSU will do just that, which ends up negating Stingley missing the game to some extent.

B* NCAAF: Arkansas 1st Half TT Un6.5 @ 1.87/-115
-Florida was instantly better last year once Feleipe Franks got hurt. Never been a fan of him and now he's the QB of Arkansas. Don't see him finding the endzone here vs the #1 ranked defense in the nation. Georgia has a legitimate chance to win it all this year if they get their offense going and this is just step 1. Fully expect a statement game from them here to open the year and lock down Franks and the rest of the abysmal Arkansas offense.

GDaddy46 · 09-26-20, 06:08 PM

C* NCAAF: Florida State +11.5 @ 1.909/-110
-Everybody is on the Miami train now after they beat a hyped up Louisville team last week, but after watching Louisville get outclassed by Pittsburgh today -- that win is less convincing now. Back to back primetime games on ABC with a hyped up team.. prime for Miami to lay an egg here.

Expanding on that, SCHEDULING. Miami has a huge lookahead spot here as they play @ Clemson next week. Florida State play a lowly Jacksonville State. This is their big game so far, Miami had theirs and have another next week. Sandwich spot to overlook an opponent.

D'Eriq King was able to do as he pleased last week with no pressure on him, but Florida State has the best DT in the entire country in DT Marvin Wilson. Miami won't have the luxury to create plays as easily this week.

HUGE potential for Florida State to win this game outright -- but take the +11.5 in what I think will be an EASY cover wire to wire.

GDaddy46 · 09-26-20, 07:12 PM

looks like live betting might be better in cfb hit 2-0 today on them live but 1-2 pregame with fsu pending

GDaddy46 · 10-03-20, 11:57 AM

C* NCAAF: Georgia -7 @ 1.87/-115
-Other than the one TD that Arkansas was gifted by Georgia from a lame PI call.. Georgia defense absolutely locked them down. Auburn struggled with UK but pulled away late clearly showing who the better coached team was with fundamentals alone. Skillgap wasn't huge, but the coaching gap and preparation came into play. However, I think the skillgap here is large. Georgia have a defense that is significantly better than Kentucky's and Auburn struggled with them.. don't see how they keep this close. Easily a double digit win for Georgia more times than not to me

C* NCAAF: Alabama -18 @ 1.926/-108
C* NCAAF: Mississippi +7 @ 1.909/-110
B* NCAAF: Arkansas +17.5 @ 1.885/-113
B* NCAAF: Western Kentucky -7 @ 1.926/-108

GDaddy46 · 10-04-20, 11:08 AM

C.5* NFL: Dallas Cowboys TT Un30.5 @ 1.909/-110
-Points are being scored in rapidfire all season long in the NFL, and the numbers are starting to reflect that. However, the Cowboys numbers are a bit skewed to me. They scored a combined 79 vs the Falcons and 69 vs the Seahawks.. but those defenses are worse than the Browns. Both of those teams have subpar pass rushes. They rank 25th & 29th in sack% while the Browns are 14th. Rams are ranked 15th.. Myles Garrett will pose as much of a threat to them as Aaron Donald did -- whos defense held this same Cowboys team to a measly 17 points in week 1. Number is high, it's the best pass rush they've seen since Week 1.. selling high here and fading an inflated number with good reason behind it.

Adding on to this.. the Browns HOPEFULLY use their run game and control game here as they should.. I think Stefanski is starting to pick up on that and that generally = clock running.. love this play

C* NFL: Miami Dolphins +6 @ 1.833/-120
-While the average joe keeps buying up the Seahawks I'll continue the approach of staying contrarian.. and we got a spot here. Going into the season I've said how the Cardinals and Dolphins are the two teams that will be substantially better than most people expect and it's been true so far. While the Dolphins may be 1-2 and their only win vs the Jags.. they've had quality showings vs the Pats and Bills, both top 10 teams in the league.

As for the Seahawks, their defense is BAD. I'd even put it bottom 10 in the NFL and to make things worse they'll be without Jamal Adams here. They've pretty much allowed people to score at will and that helps a relatively mediocre offense in the Dolphins. While it might be minor, the fans in Miami gives them SOME edge and the Seahawks have to travel cross country in what would be a 10am game for their west coast body clocks.

Van Noy + Lawson is the best LB/DE combo Wilson has faced so far this year, and while he's very elusive and the MVP frontrunner so far.. he can be contained to some extent. The Seahawks may very well beat the piss out ouf the Dolphins here but catching 6 at home vs a BAD defense that's without Jamal Adams.. Phins keep it close IMO

B* NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 @ 1.87/-115
-Tampa has gotten better game by game as expected with Brady getting more game reps in and this is another step in what could very well be their division at this point since the Saints are an unknown entity until Thomas returns. They have a top 10 defense and they can punish the Chargers badly here. Chargers have injuries across their OLine and Mike Williams is also out. Their only remaining weapon here is Keenan Allen and Todd Bowles should be able to neutralize him here with a rookie QB in Herbert starting again.

On the flip side, while the Bucs have a pretty weak OLine themselves.. they're still healthy and they don't have to worry about Melvin Ingram as he's been put on IR. They now have the ability to double up on Bosa and buy Brady time in the pocket to sustain drives. Even without Godwin I think the Bucs win this game handily with another cross country team here travels to Tampa.. horrible spot for the Chargers who are riddled with injuries.

GDaddy46 · 10-05-20, 04:46 PM

Biggest all year

D* NFL: New England Patriots +11.5 @ 1.909/-110

-The idea that Bill Belichick is getting 11.5 points in any game is borderline incomprehensible. Sure, he's going against the half a billion dollar man and greatest arm talent QB we've ever seen in Mahomes.. but that is a LOT of points.

Everybody is ruling the Pats out of this game even more now that Cam is out.. but a 4.5 point adjustment feels drastic to me. Brian Hoyer is by no means good, but if there is ANY team that his mediocre arm could do well in -- it's the Patriots. Cam to Hoyer is not worth a 4.5 point adjustment to me. Aaron Rodgers to Deshone Kizer was 7 points to the line and that skill disparity is MUCH higher than this one.

The Patriots have a secondary that counters the Chiefs better than most. They sit at 11th ranked defense for passing yards allowed per game and they've already faced the MVP front runner in Russell Wilson who they managed to hold to a modest 288 yards, his least impressive game of the season.

Chiefs scheduling here holds some weight to my decision as well. They're now slotted to play 3 games in the next 10 days, and the last one is on the road @ Buffalo being the hardest of the stretch. You'd have to imagine they will attempt to preserve energy at any point possible.

By no means am I trying to sell the Patriots outright win -- but given the New England system, the 4.5 market adjustment from Cam OUT to Hoyer IN is an overreaction. They are the ONLY team a mediocre QB could work for, and now Belichick has had an additional day to prepare for that situation. Pats stay inside the 11.5

GDaddy46 · 10-10-20, 10:15 AM

C* NCAAF: Kentucky -2.5 @ 1.83/-120
C* NCAAF: Alabama/Mississippi OVER 68 @ 1.97/-103
C* NCAAF: Oklahoma -3 @ 2.00/+100
C* NCAAF: Texas A&M +6 @ 1.87/-115
B* NCAAF: Western Kentucky +7 @ 1.909/-110
B* NCAAF: Kansas State +10 @ 1.847/-118

GDaddy46 · 10-10-20, 11:09 PM

5-1 ncaa yesterday

C* NFL: San Francisco 49ers -7 @ 1.80/-125
-Buying half point here for the flat TD..

Most of you know I like Miami as much as anybody, but absolutely despise this spot for them. The 49ers get Jimmy G back here on top of Kittle healthy and those are much needed additions. They're sat at 2-2 and have a huge home game here to get back to a winning record and get a grasp in the NFC for another playoff run. Lose this game and their season is suddenly very much so up in the air with the Seahawks/Rams/Cardinals all above them in their division.

Dolphins are a public dog this week, and that draws me to the 49ers even harder. I suppose most people remember seeing the lowly Eagles beat them in their own stadium and suddenly undervalue SF but hey.. I did call that Philly outright win after all. Wasn't that surprising to me.

Miami has to travel cross country, San Fran returns Jimmy G, and are in desperate need of a BIG win to turn the tide of their season and boost morale after being riddled by injuries. Miami may return Byron Jones here but that doesn't bother me, nobody on Miami's defense can come close to containing Kittle. San Fran takes this game big.

C* NFL: Kansas City Chiefs -10 @ 1.877/-114
-Buying half point to get -10 flat

Don't like being on the public sides as you all well know but getting the -10 at this line is enough for me to fire. Opened -13 has been moved down to a good price on the TD + FG and considering they're an early game at home with fans and the Raiders travelling there after being unable to stop Josh Allen and the Bills.. now they have to face an even better offense in every regard. Don't see the Raiders covering the +10 here unless it's a backdoor.

B* NFL: Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 @ 1.87/-115
-A lot of people seem to be on the Steelers hype train this year but I've yet to see anything special. I think the common perception of them is they're 3-0 and had the #1 defense last year and Ben is back so on and so forth. The fact is this.. their 3 wins have come from opponents with a combined record of 1-11. That 1 win was the Broncos who beat the JETS, arguably the worst team in the NFL. Even then, Pitt only won their games by margins of 10, 5, and 7. Nothing special and two of those were at home.

Not sure having the additional week is that big of a deal at this point in the season and Philly finally has something to be mildly proud of with a huge win over San Francisco last week and a much needed win at that. I don't think the Eagles have any fantastic matchups by any means in this game but it's simply a contrarian play fading public sentiment towards this game grabbing a TD cushion against a team that has yet to really prove anything.