JayRow's World Famous Sports Picks

JayRow · 11-24-17, 11:21 AM

Thank you for catching my mistake.

Yesterday: 0-1 ; ~~-1.05 units~~ -2.1 units
YTD: 64-56; ~~+18.99 units~~ +17.94

Now MaggieTheFemaleDog, go to your kennel.

canepole · 11-24-17, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by hotcross

it was probably a simple mistake. You could show a little class correcting Mr. Row

was that the only numeric mistake in the thread so far?

Who? Maggiethebestdog??? Not a chance.....

JayRow · 11-24-17, 11:31 AM

Canepole I think you mean MaggieTheFemaleDog

canepole · 11-24-17, 11:34 AM

My bad

. Around here, we just call them bitch

maggiethebestdog · 11-24-17, 03:07 PM

He has NEVER played 1 unit. EVERY bet has been 2 units. So he made an honest mistake when he lost?? Funny how he has never made the same mistake and graded a 2 unit win as only +1. How come that hasn't happened????? He is a blatant cheater but I am the jerk. I love it.

JayRow · 11-24-17, 03:42 PM

I have 110 posted play and I missed 1 unit.

Go find another mistake I've made. My record is accurate, you can't question that.

"Blatant cheater...." Chill the F out. This will be the last time I address you.

maggiethebestdog · 11-24-17, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by JayRow

I have 110 posted play and I missed 1 unit.

Go find another mistake I've made. My record is accurate, you can't question that.

"Blatant cheater...." Chill the F out. This will be the last time I address you.

You have never only bet 1 unit on a game. So why in the world would you deduct only 1 unit plus juice for one game??? Never made that mistake on a winner. Keep digging.

rookieclapper · 11-24-17, 05:17 PM

tailed some games today brotha lets hit these!

hotcross · 11-25-17, 12:02 AM

RC bad timing

rookieclapper · 11-25-17, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by hotcross

RC bad timing

yeah figured i always had bad luck didnt tail winners and got hit with the bucket

JayRow · 11-25-17, 12:03 PM

If I need to practice the discipline of bankroll management please let me know any questions and I'll be happy to help.

Yesterday was a bad day. This is a freaking grind and days like yesterday test your discipline and mental fitness.

Going fishing, plays coming later around 4PM central time.

JayRow · 11-25-17, 04:15 PM

YESTERDAY: 3-6; -7.54 units
YTD: 67-62 ; +10.4 units

Mama said there would be days like this... if it was easy, everyone would be doing it... whatever the saying is.. yesterday was tough. The flyers, our big play, were up 4-2 in the 3rd. We lost a few overtime games. Just not good.

Today's Plays:

NHL:

Sharks	-130
Senators	-105
Ducks	135
Penguins	-108
Red Wings	-123
Coyotes	113

NBA:

Celtics	-2
Thunder	-6

No Big Swings today, everything for 2 units. (2% of your starting bankroll).

JayRow · 11-26-17, 10:31 AM

I cannot win a damn overtime or shootout game to save my life.

JayRow · 11-26-17, 11:07 AM

Yesterday: 3-5, -4.61 units
YTD: 70-67 ; +5.79 units

If you look at the games we lost yesterday, it is very frustrating. 1 goal games, blown leads in the last minute, overtime and shootout loses. All 1 goal goals with the exception of the 'yotes which was an empty netter to put it to a 2 goal margin.

It is a long season but these are the times that get very very frustrating, especially when it is a few days in a row.

By coincidence, we have 1 selection today. I am not being more 'picky'. The plan will go in place. Tomorrow I expect a LOT of plays, especially looking at the NBA card.

But, today is just:

NHL:
Hurricanes -125 2.5 units to win 2

hotcross · 11-26-17, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by JayRow

If you look at the games we lost yesterday, it is very frustrating. 1 goal games, blown leads in the last minute, overtime and shootout loses.

that's the nature of hockey in the NHL, isn't it?

Got a question....Pucklines, do you ever play them? Can you share a quick take on what you think of taking the favorite on the puckline in general? (sucker bet vs. good value vs. other logic??)

JayRow · 11-26-17, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by hotcross

that's the nature of hockey in the NHL, isn't it?

Got a question....Pucklines, do you ever play them? Can you share a quick take on what you think of taking the favorite on the puckline in general? (sucker bet vs. good value vs. other logic??)

It is the nature but I'm just hoping that soon the luck factor and puck bounces go in our favor.

I play the puck line on occasion.

As a handicapper, I try to solve the least amount of questions. The problem I am trying to solve - what % does a given team have to win a game or go UNDER the total?

That's why I am a big believer in "mostly flat betting". I don't try to solve for "by how much" will a team win by, or how strong my bet is. It is still unknown if my models strongest picks are any better than those that cross the threshold.

That being said, I do play some puck lines. On very big underdogs later in the season, with model support, I will play +1.5 and -1.5 REVERSE line.

Last year I hit a 0.25u parlay with +425 and +375 reverse pick lines. The pay out was juicy.

JayRow · 11-26-17, 03:55 PM

We won a shootout!

Today: 1-0 +2 units

YTD: 71-67 ; +7.79 units

canepole · 11-26-17, 04:37 PM

Good job JayRow!

JayRow · 11-27-17, 03:02 PM

YTD: 71-67 ; +7.79 units

Today's Picks:

NBA:
Kings +14 2.1 to win 2 units

NHL:
All 2units plays:

Canadiens	105
Flyers	128
Flyers/Penguins UNDER 6	-121

We will be resilient and fight back to a larger profit total, don't you worry guys.

dailydose1 · 11-27-17, 04:36 PM

Dont mind me, just chiming in... but that flyers penguins under pick seems dangerous to me. Good luck though

Watergate · 11-27-17, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by JayRow

YTD: 71-67 ; +7.79 units

Today's Picks:

NBA:
Kings +14 2.1 to win 2 units

NHL:
All 2units plays:

Canadiens	105
Flyers	128
Flyers/Penguins UNDER 6	-121

We will be resilient and fight back to a larger profit total, don't you worry guys.

Ok!!! Let's get this

JayRow · 11-27-17, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by dailydose1

Dont mind me, just chiming in... but that flyers penguins under pick seems dangerous to me. Good luck though

Don't mind it at all!

Danger is my middle name.

JayRow · 11-27-17, 05:56 PM

For 0.04 of a unit, I parlayed:
Nets ML +1700, Kings ML +785, Flyers +127 and Canadiens +105 which pays out 707:1. Just FYI.

hotcross · 11-27-17, 05:58 PM

Crosby seems to score against Philly. I'm not gonna play anything tonight, Penguins are my strongest lean tho.

I'd literally be picking every home team to win tonight, which doesn't feel right, so PASS for me tonight.

JayRow · 11-27-17, 10:02 PM

2 goal lead in the 3rd blown again. Damn it.

hotcross · 11-27-17, 10:17 PM

Jay blown 2-goal leads are frustrating, but it's been an increasingly regular occurrence the past couple years. Meaningless to worry about. I mean, how do we know whether or not the team that makes the "comeback win" wasn't saving their energy / ice-time for the final period. And it's shame on the team which blew the lead, allowing themselves to be beat, a la Falcons in the Super Bowl.

JayRow · 11-27-17, 11:03 PM

Originally posted by hotcross

Jay blown 2-goal leads are frustrating, but it's been an increasingly regular occurrence the past couple years. Meaningless to worry about. I mean, how do we know whether or not the team that makes the "comeback win" wasn't saving their energy / ice-time for the final period. And it's shame on the team which blew the lead, allowing themselves to be beat, a la Falcons in the Super Bowl.

True but if you believe in bayesian probability there is a bit of an axe to grind. It's ok. Hopefully the kings pull it out and we move on to tomorrow with very little ground lost.

xmrblueduckyx · 11-27-17, 11:08 PM

Keep on keeping on JR. I would stay away from the Flyers right now.. They are in a downward spiral and think Hackstol is getting the axe soon.

JayRow · 11-27-17, 11:18 PM

BLUEDUCK MY MAN! Good to see you around these parts!

Ladies and gentlemen this fella is an OG

JayRow · 11-28-17, 10:56 AM

YTD: 71-67 ; +7.47 units
Yesterday - 2-2; -0.32 units

Today's action will come around 3PM Central Time. Hitting the road.

JayRow · 11-28-17, 11:00 AM

Some Random Thoughts:

As is clearly evident by my frustration and the volatile last week, this is a grind. Please keep in mind this thread was started on Nov. 2. We have 3 days left of November.

Think of this as a monthly investment. Right now we are +7.47 units for November. I'm not even going to touch on the fact I think we have had bad luck and the potential to have won so much more.

7.47units x 12 months = 89.64 units on an annual basis. That means I'm almost doubling the bankroll every year. It's a slow grind and requires strict bankroll management. You can't piss away valuable units!

And believe me ladies and gentlemen I have profitable niches year round.

JayRow · 11-28-17, 03:58 PM

Sabres +145
Stars -108
Red Wings -110

All 2 unit plays. That's all!

dailydose1 · 11-28-17, 06:18 PM

Just here to say i told you so

jk keep the grind up

hotcross · 11-28-17, 06:24 PM

Yep I'll chime in also - tooting my horn about the Penguins winning last night, although it was very close.

I don't get why Mr. Row and another respected poster in his other thread are on Buffalo tonight against Tampa Bay. Tampa is the type of team that shouldn't lose much more than 2 games in a row, maybe 3 in a row....which is what you're looking for tonight if the worst team in the league Buffalo is gonna beat them. I'll pass again on these picks, just too confused by it. Still best of luck to Mr. Row and anyone tailing tonight.

JayRow · 11-28-17, 07:12 PM

Who is also on Buffalo?

This is a strong play in my opinion... not sure I want to spill the goodies on a write up right now.. we'll see. Other than you hotcross, the audience hasn't shown much love or eagerness to learn what's behind the plays.