Wednesday's College Basketball Plays 6-Unit Play. #759 Take Hofstra (-1) over Siena (7 p.m., Wednesday, December 9) Oddsmakers have favored Siena in each of their last three games (1-2), two of those being on the road. So for them to now dog the Saints at home is a pretty good indication of where this one is going. Granted, I already knew Hofstra to be the better team, but this number does back it up. The Pride are the class of the CAA this season. It's early in the season but they have an RPI of 36. Siena is 185. That separation gap doesn't speak to just one point as the line suggests. It should be more but we get a soft one here. Hofstra already has road wins against two more talented teams that are worth stacking up against Siena, and that's Saint Bonaventure and La Salle. They also have a neutral court win over a good Florida State team. The Pride have put together three straight wins since after Thanksgiving, and I like this run to continue before they get to league play. Hofstra by a half dozen. 7-Unit Play. #727 Take Toledo (-2) over Detroit (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, December 9) These are two programs going in opposite directions this season. Toledo had a 20-win season in 2014 and is expected to be even better this year with a lot of talent remaining. Detroit was 15-18 a year ago, and now they are minus their best two players who averaged nearly 30 points combined and were the team's only two double digit scorers. Juwan Howard Jr. is floating around the NBA D-League while Paris Bass remains suspended on the sidelines. Toledo brings to the table two 20-point scorers in Jonathan Williams and Nathan Boothe. Simply put, the Rockets are the better team from the better conference, and quite frankly it goes a long way when you are expecting things from yourself as a whole. Detroit is 3-3 but really only 1-3 as two wins don't really say much against non D-I schools. They have allowed 95 points to Pittsburgh, 100 to Oral Roberts and 102 to Vanderbilt. No matter who the opponent, any time you allow those numbers, you aren't playing good defense. Toledo is 6-2 and expects to win this game. Last year the Titans beat Toledo in their own gym. Payback here. Already this year, four of Toledo's six victories have been either on the road or neutral site games. That's a good sign and a positive reinforcement. Toledo comes strong all the way and manages to control this contest throughout. Rockets by seven, 83-76. 4-Unit Play. #767 Take Omaha (+6) over Missouri (8 p.m., Wednesday, December 9) Right now its fair to say this Missouri team doesn't know who they are, and quite frankly it might take half the season before they even have a clue. That means a confident mid-major team like Omaha can catch this vulnerable Tigers team in a spot like this. Omaha is 4-0 ATS on the road this season. Tonight's cover will be number five. UNO has two 16-point scorers and another one putting up 14 points per game. This team can score and will never be out of it. In fact, I think Omaha will be in it most of the way setting the pace. Mizzou was slapped around for three straight losses over the Thanksgiving holiday. They came home to beat a couple of crappy teams in Northern Illinois and Arkansas State, but the Mavericks tonight are a completely different challenge. Omaha already went to a better Minnesota team as an 11-point underdog and played the Gophers to a three-point game. The same happened at Colorado as a 17.5-point underdog in a five-point loss. Both those teams are light years ahead of Missouri as far is 2015 is concerned. I genuinely think Omaha has a better chance to win this game outright than Missouri does to cover this number. Omaha also has road wins already against Northern Colorado and Montana State to boost their confidence of winning away from home. Bottom line, I think this is a sharp, under-the-radar selection. Oddsmakers probably came across this match-up and spent two minutes casually thinking about this game before slapping the favorite price tag on the Missouri Tigers, and probably only because they play in the SEC. Well, that doesn't mean squat. Without a doubt the Summit League underdog will be motivated to play here. Omaha gets a shot at a power conference school before settling into league play in a few weeks. Nebraska Omaha wins this game outright, 75-73, and it's not an upset. 3-Unit Play. #761 Take Eastern Washington (+15) over Davidson (8:30 p.m., Wednesday, December 9) Value play on EWU here. How many can Davidson actually win by? I know the Wildcats are 5-1, but in their lone loss they were blasted by UNC. But more importantly, Davidson couldn't cover double digit spreads at home to each of Mercer, Charleston and Central Florida. Eastern Washington is in that group competitively. Give me the heavy number and the high scoring Eagles who can absolutely keep pace on the scoreboard. 2-Unit Play. #741 Take UNLV (+7) over Wichita State (9 p.m., Wednesday, December 9) The Shockers finally got a good result, albeit beating a bad Saint Louis team on Saturday. But that doesn't mean Wichita State is anywhere close to where preseason predictions had them being. UNLV is really good. And generally speaking, anytime a really good team is catching this many points, just take them and hope for the best. I think this will be a close and very competitive game. The Rebels are playing the better basketball so far this year, and we'll take the points as a value play in this one. 2-Unit Play. #746 Take Boise State (-14) over Loyola Marymount (9 p.m., Wednesday, December 9) The Broncos are going to body LMU here. Boise State won by ten on the road to a better Portland team that is in the same conference as the Lions. At home it should be even worse for their opponent tonight. I actually gave LMU a little more credit, as I thought this line would be in single digits. Nonetheless, this one is a one-sided affair. Also, had it not been for Boise hosting ranked Oregon this weekend and possibly looking ahead, this play might be ranked a whole heck of a lot higher. Still, the points won't be enough for the visitors as Boise State rolls. |
