Ras play or fade?

[Edward-RAS]

1. The initial line movement is a direct result of having a following, so part of our CLV is created by this, yes, but CLV doesn't measure initial line movement, it measures the closing line after all money, information, and opinions have been factored in to the market. The college football market is large. When mistakes are made, you can be sure they will get corrected prior to start of game. Do you really think sharp bettors will not look at a line that was 2, 3, 4 points different before we played it and not bet against us if they didn't think we were on the right side? Our average CLV wouldn't be anywhere near what it is if we were not getting market validation and/or agreement (even at worse numbers) on the majority of our plays.

2. Having a following is a valid reason for a line to move. Saying we create our own CLV because we have a following is like saying that betting groups create their own CLV because they are betting so much of their own money. Both are valid reasons for a line to move, and in both cases the new line will be more accurate.

[ANDTHEWINNERIS]

1. The initial line movement is a direct result of having a following, so part of our CLV is created by this, yes, but CLV doesn't measure initial line movement, it measures the closing line after all money, information, and opinions have been factored in to the market. The college football market is large. When mistakes are made, you can be sure they will get corrected prior to start of game. Do you really think sharp bettors will not look at a line that was 2, 3, 4 points different before we played it and not bet against us if they didn't think we were on the right side? Our average CLV wouldn't be anywhere near what it is if we were not getting market validation and/or agreement (even at worse numbers) on the majority of our plays.

2. Having a following is a valid reason for a line to move. Saying we create our own CLV because we have a following is like saying that betting groups create their own CLV because they are betting so much of their own money. Both are valid reasons for a line to move, and in both cases the new line will be more accurate.

The point is, the initial line move is the bulk of it. I'm not arguing the fact that your plays do or do not have line value, they obviously do, but if you did not release plays to clients, the lines in those same games would respond on average just as they do for the rest of the games, and in the end achieve "static" results. The argument that your CLV indicates such is completely false. The CLV is created by your clients, period. If you did not release picks to clients, these games would show over a long period of time, the same line movement on average as all other games, its 100% client based.

[ANDTHEWINNERIS]

1. The initial line movement is a direct result of having a following, so part of our CLV is created by this, yes, but CLV doesn't measure initial line movement, it measures the closing line after all money, information, and opinions have been factored in to the market. The college football market is large. When mistakes are made, you can be sure they will get corrected prior to start of game. Do you really think sharp bettors will not look at a line that was 2, 3, 4 points different before we played it and not bet against us if they didn't think we were on the right side? Our average CLV wouldn't be anywhere near what it is if we were not getting market validation and/or agreement (even at worse numbers) on the majority of our plays.

2. Having a following is a valid reason for a line to move. Saying we create our own CLV because we have a following is like saying that betting groups create their own CLV because they are betting so much of their own money. Both are valid reasons for a line to move, and in both cases the new line will be more accurate.

here is an example right from the forum here. You released 4 games one at 6.5 that went to 8-8.5, another that went from 10 to 7.5-8, another that went from 4.5 to 7-7.5, and the last from 10.5 to 12.5-13 so on average after release these games moved 1.5 to 2, 2 to 2.5, 2.5-3, and 2.5 to 3. Total up the 4 games and you get 8.5-10.5/4 = 2.125 to 2.625. That is the line movement that took place immediately after release. That is right in line with your career CLV, so your argument that the rest is factored into the market is additional, is false, because the rest of the movement, if any is as static as the rest of the board, and does not move any more or less than the average of all other games. Show me otherwise please

[jtmurray89]

I see your point about RAS. No matter who picks the games can you really say the line will not move?? I started reading books about betting in the 90's. The woods are full of cappers. RAS played way too many games Saturday. That's a huge risk. 1 or 2 games in a day is the max for me. I played 2 yesterday and played nothing the rest of the day. I will say this if someone is so great @ capping games @70% why would share that information??

Even if he plays 14 games for a week, that averages out to 2 games per day. That's no different than someone betting 2 baseball games per day for an entire week.

[747planes]

Name someone better.

bettingresource. Much better ROI than Ras, much cheaper, all sports and picks all year around and the games that they cap have very high limits. Even though they are very successful in college basketball totals, they don't include this in their packages to make it fair for the clients.

[Watergate]

Ras has been very good according to what has been posted and what I have read. I however think that for someone like me that wagers $50 a game his service has very little value.

[hallandale]

Yes watergate most people on this site. Play something like that??

[Watergate]

Yes watergate most people on this site. Play something like that??

Thank you for you input Hallandale. I have been capping the games on my own for years with limited success. I come to the SBR forum in the hope of getting some advantage.

[Edward-RAS]

The point is, the initial line move is the bulk of it. I'm not arguing the fact that your plays do or do not have line value, they obviously do, but if you did not release plays to clients, the lines in those same games would respond on average just as they do for the rest of the games, and in the end achieve "static" results. The argument that your CLV indicates such is completely false. The CLV is created by your clients, period. If you did not release picks to clients, these games would show over a long period of time, the same line movement on average as all other games, its 100% client based.

I already explained it in detail above, you just aren't understanding basic concepts of the market. There are numerous betting groups who are capable of moving any one of our plays back to the release line and/or beyond if they believe the line move is not warranted. Besides that, as explained above, having a following doesn't make CLV any less valid. A following is earned. The more you win, the more you have a following, just like a betting group would bet more as they win more.

[ANDTHEWINNERIS]

I already explained it in detail above, you just aren't understanding basic concepts of the market. There are numerous betting groups who are capable of moving any one of our plays back to the release line and/or beyond if they believe the line move is not warranted. Besides that, as explained above, having a following doesn't make CLV any less valid. A following is earned. The more you win, the more you have a following, just like a betting group would bet more as they win more.

No arguments on about an earned following, and no doubt you find positive line value, but my point is, without that following, the line simply does not move at all. What I am saying is, without the subscriber base, the CLV vs the opening line is static, or 0! It doesn't mean you don't have line value, it means the line value you hold is meaningful only to you, because without clients, the same syndicates can move those same lines as they choose, or don't choose, just as they could on that same game if you didn't release the play. I'm not saying your CLV is less valid, I'm saying your clients are 100% of the reason there is any to be shown. Edward if you released the opposite of what you liked, let's say your game that was released at -6.5 which jumped to -8/-8.5. Are you trying to tell me that if you released the other side at +6.5 the line would not move and stay at the same rate as a real play to +4/+4.5? That is apparently what your saying. So the same game released one way, if released the other way, would show the same CLV, do you follow.....therefore it is valid 100% because of clients

[doncrizz]

I think you guys are missing the point. Edward is not arguing that the following is the not the main cause of the CLV. What he's arguing is that if there was market disagreement on his play, the line would move back to its original line, and his CLV would approach 0. This does happen on some games, and a truer test would be to say, do the games that have higher CLV (adjusted for key numbers) win more often than the ones that don't. I beleive RAS has done a study on this and it has actually turned out that there no significant difference (corect me if I'm wrong). This would indicate to me that whether the market disagrees or not, his service plays are all in the same 57% range long term. That long term success is what drives the line move because bookmakers and other betters respect his opinion as if he was a lines maker himself. If his service were to lose its edge for 2 years in a row, he would lose his massive following and the lines would no longer move as much as they did before, if it all.

Point being, if RAS was to open his own sportsbook and have lines that indicated his opinion, and other bookmakers respected that opinion as much as they do now, their lines would move on air. Money and respect moves lines, and in RAS's case.. it's the synergistic affect of both that moves them so dramatically.

[ANDTHEWINNERIS]

I think you guys are missing the point. Edward is not arguing that the following is the not the main cause of the CLV. What he's arguing is that if there was market disagreement on his play, the line would move back to its original line, and his CLV would approach 0. This does happen on some games, and a truer test would be to say, do the games that have higher CLV (adjusted for key numbers) win more often than the ones that don't. I beleive RAS has done a study on this and it has actually turned out that there no significant difference (corect me if I'm wrong). This would indicate to me that whether the market disagrees or not, his service plays are all in the same 57% range long term. That long term success is what drives the line move because bookmakers and other betters respect his opinion as if he was a lines maker himself. If his service were to lose its edge for 2 years in a row, he would lose his massive following and the lines would no longer move as much as they did before, if it all.

Point being, if RAS was to open his own sportsbook and have lines that indicated his opinion, and other bookmakers respected that opinion as much as they do now, their lines would move on air. Money and respect moves lines, and in RAS's case.. it's the synergistic affect of both that moves them so dramatically.

So your telling me that if instead of releasing a pick this week as he has at -6.5 which moved to -8/-8.5....if he went against himself, and released +6.5 it wouldn't immediately go to +4/+4.5 equal distance from the actual play? Maybe we agree on that, which is all client driven, that it would. What we don't agree on is you suggest that the market would disagree more often if he did the opposite of what he actually liked? My answer is it would be exactly the same amount of times real play or opposite play. Which would mean CLV is 100% client driven, which it is, see above

[doncrizz]

So your telling me that if instead of releasing a pick this week as he has at -6.5 which moved to -8/-8.5....if he went against himself, and released +6.5 it wouldn't immediately go to +4/+4.5 equal distance from the actual play? Maybe we agree on that, which is all client driven, that it would. What we don't agree on is you suggest that the market would disagree more often if he did the opposite of what he actually liked? My answer is it would be exactly the same amount of times real play or opposite play. Which would mean CLV is 100% client driven, which it is, see above

it would move equally to the other side, yes we agree on that.
I do think there would be more movement back to the original line if he was taking the 'wrong' side. The main discrepancy between our opinions is how sharp the rest of the marketplace is. Edward believes, as do I to a lesser extent, that there are plenty of sharp syndicates out there that would take out those good numbers. Regardless, it would be very slight at first since the respect for RAS is still high among other groups and I'm sure they know what he's on if they are plugged in to the market. If he shows a 43% winning percentage for a year or two... Then the respect and followimg would go a away and thus the line moves. It would be a slow delayed reaction, no doubt about it.

[Edward-RAS]

If we gave out random sides, the initial movement would be very similar to what it is now, but the market resistance and opposition would be much greater and consistent than it is now, and in the end our average CLV would be significantly lower.

So the first question is how much our following has to do with how much CLV we get, I would say it is responsible for part of it, maybe 50% of it, with the other half being due to market validation and/or agreement.

The second question is whether or not a line moving due to a following is any less valid than it moving because of money being bet, and I would say in this instance it is. If you are evaluating your own play at -6, and it closed -8. You should feel just as validated if it was moved by RAS as you would just about any betting group.

[gambler705]

Ohio st over?

[Edward-RAS]

That should read:

The second question is whether or not a line moving due to a following is any less valid than it moving because of money being bet, and I would say in this instance it isn't.

[Edward-RAS]

Tonight's Troy/ASU game is a perfect example. We released at +10, it moved to +8.5, then settled at +8 for most of the week, then a big move to +7 on game day, and another big move to +6 just before game. Do you really think if we had released ASU -10 on Monday that we would have beaten the closing line? Not a chance.

[gambler705]

Yes, bc it would have went 12 after u release it. U cant take credit for clv when ur the person causing it.

Tonight's Troy/ASU game is a perfect example. We released at +10, it moved to +8.5, then settled at +8 for most of the week, then a big move to +7 on game day, and another big move to +6 just before game. Do you really think if we had released ASU -10 on Monday that we would have beaten the closing line? Not a chance.

[Nicodemus]

Yes, bc it would have went 12 after u release it. U cant take credit for clv when ur the person causing it.

Wrong. The folks who bet it from 8 to 6 would have likely bet it back from 12 to 10.

This one is interesting though, it is one where if you got the closing line you would have lost but the RAS line wins. 7 pt final differential.

[747planes]

i want to know where it was 10?

[brainy smurf]

"

[gambler705]

Wrong. The folks who bet it from 8 to 6 are late to the party and are just catching the RAS train a bit later. Almost every service released troy yesterday as well.

We can debate this part of it, but ultimately the point is you cant take credit for CLV when YOU are the one driving that. At the end of the game did u cover or not? The book doesnt pay you when u dont cover but beat the closing line by 5pts. So who gives a shit. Now not taking anything away from ras at all because being able to drive a line being moved 3pts speaks volumes to his rep, i just dont think he needs to be bragging about it because ultimately its pointless

Wrong. The folks who bet it from 8 to 6 would have likely bet it back from 12 to 10.

This one is interesting though, it is one where if you got the closing line you would have lost but the RAS line wins. 7 pt final differential.

[gambler247]

Without the results there would be no following/respect, which means a very small CLV, if any. Everything is results based. It's not that complicated.

[chunk]

Absolutely results based, but it is a little more complicated when assessing value. I see a vast majority that grade using stale lines, cherry picking lines that very few if any can get, or buying points at non existing prices off/on key #'s, etc,etc. This is done by touts and those that put plays in the forums alike.

This can easily swing 3% or more of the plays over time. Suddenly, you have a 52% capper (losing @ -110 odds) appearing to be a 55% capper (a very profitable winner).

If there isn't transparency AND accurate, honest grading, results don't mean squat. Anyone not adhering to these simple, basic standards should be ignored completely. I've been around for a while and can only think of a handful that do this on a consistent basis.

[Edward-RAS]

Again, there is no chance that we beat the close if we had released Ark St -10 on Monday. It would have closed at -7.5 or something instead of -6 at most.

The reason we track and display CLV is because it is a great indicator of edge and future results. In most cases, it is much more telling than past results, especially given a small sample size (like a football season). It is what sharps use to evaluate handicappers, and what sportsbooks use to evaluate sharp/square action.

[brainy smurf]

Wrong. i just dont think he needs to be bragging about it because ultimately its pointless

he's not bragging about anything, this started when a poster said his closing line value is "based solely on 100% of his clients actions" that is not the case, ras is even saying that's not the case. There are several factors that determine the clv.

[ANDTHEWINNERIS]

time to end this, you'll never convince me, and I will never convince you, so it is what it is

[brainy smurf]

time to end this, you'll never convince me, and I will never convince you, so it is what it is

agreed, while I do agree it's a major factor, there are other sharps & money that come in during the week or late & push the line further or closer.

fyi: I tailed the system you talked about with the 36+ points from the previous week, last week fell right on the number of 58% 7-5...Texas Tech was a play last night.

[chunk]

Again, there is no chance that we beat the close if we had released Ark St -10 on Monday. It would have closed at -7.5 or something instead of -6 at most.

The reason we track and display CLV is because it is a great indicator of edge and future results. In most cases, it is much more telling than past results, especially given a small sample size (like a football season). It is what sharps use to evaluate handicappers, and what sportsbooks use to evaluate sharp/square action.

Just curious. You have commented yourself that your CLV is~ 50% customer driven. If Marshall(opened @ 6 and went to 8 after you released), for instance, closed @ 7, would you consider that you beat the closer based on edge or is that edge artificial?

[streak1234]

Jakes

You will also notice that when there is such a swing in the line, there is great opportunity to hit the middle. A prime example was ther Troy game. It was easy to get 8 or 9 and then come back on the other side with -6. Having a middle number is 7 is prime and well worth $80-$100 for a $2000 payout

[ANDTHEWINNERIS]

You will also notice that when there is such a swing in the line, there is great opportunity to hit the middle. A prime example was ther Troy game. It was easy to get 8 or 9 and then come back on the other side with -6. Having a middle number is 7 is prime and well worth $80-$100 for a $2000 payout

personally middling is perhaps the best option, limited risk big reward, and sometimes a key number gap, or large one or both

[ANDTHEWINNERIS]

personally middling is perhaps the best option, limited risk big reward, and sometimes a key number gap, or large one or both

The best way to do that is watch the books response to his release, and see which one/ones react the slowest and make sure you have an account there, or a street bookie who is unaware is even better, because he won't get the line change immediately

[ANDTHEWINNERIS]

Also another reason why his CLV is meaningless is the fact that the only lines moving are off shore, where most all of his clients wager, the lines in Vegas don't budge

[ANDTHEWINNERIS]

Also another reason why his CLV is meaningless is the fact that the only lines moving are off shore, where most all of his clients wager, the lines in Vegas don't budge

Here they are:

Vegas Odds
Caesars	Line	Over/Under
09/09/13 2:22:05 PM	-7.5/-110 (Open)	OFF
09/10/13 1:12:05 PM	-8/-110	OFF
09/11/13 2:42:05 PM	-8/-110	66-110 (Open)
09/12/13 9:42:06 AM	-8/-110	67.5-110
09/12/13 1:32:05 PM	-7.5/-110	67.5-110
09/12/13 2:32:05 PM	-7/-110	67.5-110
LVH	Line	Over/Under
09/09/13 1:04:33 PM	-7.5/-110 (Open)	OFF
09/10/13 12:44:34 PM	-8/-110	OFF
09/11/13 2:24:45 PM	-8/-110	66.5-110 (Open)
09/12/13 9:34:36 AM	-8/-110	67.5-110
09/12/13 10:34:43 AM	-7.5/-110	67.5-110
09/12/13 1:04:36 PM	-7/-110	67.5-110
Mirage	Line	Over/Under
09/09/13 2:05:06 PM	-8/-110 (Open)	OFF
09/11/13 10:35:06 AM	-8/-110	66-110 (Open)
09/12/13 12:25:06 PM	-7.5/-110	66-110
09/12/13 3:15:06 PM	-7/-110	66-110
Orleans	Line	Over/Under
09/09/13 3:42:21 PM	-8/-110 (Open)	OFF
09/11/13 11:12:22 PM	-8/-110	66-110 (Open)
09/11/13 11:52:22 PM	-8/-110	66.5-110
09/12/13 9:22:23 AM	-8/-110	67.5-110
09/12/13 1:52:22 PM	-7.5/-110	67.5-110

[Edward-RAS]

Just curious. You have commented yourself that your CLV is~ 50% customer driven. If Marshall(opened @ 6 and went to 8 after you released), for instance, closed @ 7, would you consider that you beat the closer based on edge or is that edge artificial?

The second part of what I pointed out is that just because CLV is created in part by a following doesn't make it any less valid, or as you say artificial. That is how the market works. Those who win most, have most respect, money to bet, influence, etc. So if a betting group creates a portion of CLV for themselves due to betting their own money, does that make it artificial or any less valid? The same goes for RAS. If we start losing edge, the market will be their to pounce and our average CLV will quickly dissipate.