Turner 2/4

tyloxx420 · 02-03-12, 10:58 PM

Confirmed!

Maleku · 02-03-12, 11:48 PM

SI has 68% of the public on the Clips... going to hold out for more value. The Wizards almost make me as nervous as the Raptors

PLF · 02-03-12, 11:50 PM

Yah not sure I'll play this one. For me it's such a coin flip. I can see them easily lose by 5-6 or 10-12! And when a team is winning, losing by that much with little time left on clock, sometimes they just throw it away, it's not like they care about spreads. That's why I love ML bets, it aligns the interests of the bettor with those of the team as a whole including all players and the coach and their tactical decisions.

I'll see who else likes this play and where line moves and how I feel about it tomorrow but yah personally I might very well skip this Washington Wizards play tomorrow.

Onetime75 · 02-04-12, 12:25 AM

Agreed Washington play looks a little scary to say the least.

Also, from the previous thread....I wanted to run the numbers playing the money line along with the puck line and see how the insurance idea of both would play out. If we look at the records on the site he's hitting 51%, I'm assuming this is accurate. The question is has the ML been hitting enough to warrant a play in conjunction with the PL, playing both as you suggested to offer a buffer. If Joe already has the records then I'll let it ride for today and get some sleep. Thanks for the heads up I had forgotten about that.

PLF · 02-04-12, 01:59 AM

No problem buddy.

Yeah Joe pops into Turner threads here and there and offers his words of wisdom along with his stats which he's keeping track of the very same thing. (About how often ML hits in Turner's picks as opposed to PL, how much more often is it), it's been hitting more recently than before that much I know and he mentioned it recently in another thread.

I actually just thought of something else too. Not the greatest idea and probably not as profitable but just for curiosity's sake and learning more, What if for tracking and comparison purposes, we also kept a record of just how much someone would earn if they played all of Turner's NHL Puckline bets ONLY on the MoneyLine! So no PL bets but bet on same games on same team but on ML.

This way when the puckline hits, you win but not as much of course, when they win by 1 or in overtime which is a lot of games, you win and if the underdog or the team you didn't favour wins, well then you lose and high juice too but that's your punishment for guessing wrong.

I just wonder how much of a disadvantage would it be to play with high juice like that, meaning how often does the ML hit and the PL doesn't (Like all the games that need OT) so you don't waste money on PL.

I think using this method, you can probably win a good portion of your NHL bets. But how profitable will it be? Probably not that much. Thing is, you're paying high juice and never winning big but winning quite consistently. Pucklines have much better odds of course so even if you hit 1/2 it makes it worthwhile.

I'm not actually in favour of doing this and think it has its shortcomings and we're probably best off just following Turner's suggestions and being happy with the 1/2 PL hitting OR if enough long-term evidence shows that playing the PL in conjunction with the ML is worthwhile, then do that too, but I'm curious to see how as an experiment this would turn out. How much worse would they be at end of season as compared to those who played PL? Any guesses?

Onetime75 · 02-04-12, 03:31 AM

Ok, I couldn't sleep not knowing the answer so I got up and worked it out on excel. I still need to go over it and make sure I didn't overlook something but it looks good. My biggest concern is whether or not a month is long enough to give an accurate model. Turner had some pretty big runs in January and if those are removed we are looking at an entirely different outcome. But you can pick anything apart if you take it too far and aren't we banking on those occasional runs anyway.

PLF- It shouldn't be an issue to add that in and see what kicks out, I'll get a post in later today. I want to look it over with a fresh set of eyes first. But no more ideas between now and then...haha j/k. Keep them coming.

chrisdinho · 02-04-12, 03:35 AM

Instead of -1.5 I think will play this ML. I don't have balls to play -1.5

Onetime75 · 02-04-12, 03:49 AM

They are nice when they hit though, best of luck Chris

chrisdinho · 02-04-12, 03:58 AM

Agree

we will see how this will turn out

JoeVol · 02-04-12, 10:31 AM

Since the beginning of the NHL season the record betting the ML on Turner's PL bets is 54-20. On another subject, I'm certainly not trying to tell anyone what to do because it's their money not mine, but trying to pick and choose which plays to bet or not kind of defeats the purpose in the long run IMO. Sort of like handicapping the handicapper. I just play what they give me and so far it's worked out very well. Beside that seems like when I see one that I really don't like it wins so that shows me what I know.

tyloxx420 · 02-04-12, 11:25 AM

time to bounce back again!

tpiratetn · 02-04-12, 11:47 AM

Thanks

Onetime75 · 02-04-12, 01:18 PM

I agree with not capping the cappers Joe. If i were to use the moneyline picks it would be in addition to playing turners picks. Im working this weekend and away from the laptop right now. I'll get a post in if i make it back to my station.

McMaster · 02-04-12, 01:22 PM

I sometimes play the Win in Regulation time. It is often a + number.
Boston today is +105 regulation. Can't win a PL bet in overtime, so I often find comfort on this.
That, or bet $100 PL, and $100 Regulation win.

Maleku · 02-04-12, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by McMaster

I sometimes play the Win in Regulation time. It is often a + number.
Boston today is +105 regulation. Can't win a PL bet in overtime, so I often find comfort on this.
That, or bet $100 PL, and $100 Regulation win.

I have been intrigued by this same idea but am still just going with the PL bets so far. Not sure why I can't pull the trigger.

I went through Turners past NHL records to check streaks with the PL bets. Looks like the worst streak he had was 2 separate 5 game losing streaks and there are lots of 0-2 nights as well.

For myself for the time being I may just sit back and simply bet the PL's and see where all the methods stand at the end of the season.

We should all chime in at the end of the year so we can all see what the most profitable approach is with a substantial sample size.

razbet · 02-04-12, 02:32 PM

From time to time , Was might catch a good day, let's hope LAC will be subpar

Maleku · 02-04-12, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by razbet

From time to time , Was might catch a good day, let's hope LAC will be subpar

Yeah. I think we need a BIG game from John Wall to get this.

PLF · 02-04-12, 02:42 PM

McMaster, Maleku and I were discussing that idea just last night. It's a decent idea, I personally don't like it though because I find even if the team disappoints and doesn't get the job done in regulation, a lot of these PL or ML bets would turn into victory for us eventually in OT. Especially since we're often betting on home favourites. So the fact that the Regulation bet doesn't include the Overtime obviously, kinda kills it for me. But I can see why some like you and Maleku like this idea.

Either way, no matter what the approach, like Maleku said, we can all do our own thing and at end of the season compare to see which was most profitable.

@Joe, thanks for the stats. So according to that when Turner picks a side to win by 2 or more, they've won 73% of the time! 54 / 74!

That's what I was saying. Maybe if we were to just bet the ML (high juice yes) but we would win very consistently. Now the payouts wouldn't be much but they would be nice small gradual increases in profits and less erratic than winning a couple pucklines and maybe losing 3, etc. So that's another idea.

PLF · 02-04-12, 04:08 PM

So Penguins upset Bruins with 2-1 victory. Glad I missed that one by accident lol. Just went to bet it and saw game is not available and already over lol.

Onetime75 · 02-04-12, 04:51 PM

I tried to paste the excel model but everything gets jumbled and looks like shit so I'll break it down and if anyone wants an email I'll be happy to send it to you and feel free to look it over and let me know if anything was overlooked or not considered. This is a write up for incorporating a play on the ML in addition to the PL bets posted by Turner for the NHL. Bets made on the ML were in direct relation to the PL posted units. Model runs from 01/2/2012 to 01/31/2012. There were 38 games played in the NHL for the month of January according to Turner's picks 30-PL, 7-ML, and 1-O/U. Playing the added ML gave us an additional 30 plays for the month of January. The other 8 games were omitted since we would not double down on a ML posted pick and the O/U did not fall into the scope of the test. ML odds were taken from Covers and listed as the closing line and used for all scenarios to keep things uniform. Lets see how things would have turned out...

Turners Posted Picks: 30-PL/7-ML/1-OU
Overall Turner went 16 wins and 22 losses with a unit profit of +21.45

Additional ML plays: 30 Additional ML Plays
Record: 20 wins 10 losses
Unit Profit: +13.01

Combined Plays: 68 total plays for the January NHL
Record: 36 wins 32 losses
Combined Units: +34.46

Onetime75 · 02-04-12, 05:02 PM

I would still like someone else's opinion on this and possibly look over the sheet. It's just too easy to overlook something and one small mistake makes a big difference. Thanks everyone and best of luck tonight...I missed the first game too lol, I'll take it.

PLF · 02-04-12, 07:52 PM

Good job OneTime.

Well, I think what you said is correct in the sense that one month and 38 games is NOT a big enough sample to take anything conclusive from, BUT, it's a start and it's the best we can do for now so on behalf of everyone else, I want to thank you for your record keeping and your willingness to share.

Take care and good luck everyone.

p.s. I played a parlay with SJ Sharks and Nashville both winning on ML tonight. Feeling good about it.

Played Vancouver as ML too and they came back from 2-1 down and 1 minute to go and won it in overtime!

p.s. I can see the Washington pick hitting but for me it's a coin flip so I'm skipping it. I can see them lose by 5 or 7 though so it's a decent pick.

Onetime75 · 02-04-12, 08:18 PM

Agreed, I think it's worth tracking but we need more time to see if this is going to play out in our favor. An extra 30 games can have a significant impact on your bankroll so we need to be sure it's worthy of a play.

BOL, on the games tonight everyone and we'll talk again later.

MrMiami · 02-04-12, 10:31 PM

Rack it fellas! Nashville comes through right at the end for our BIG puckline winner!

tyloxx420 · 02-04-12, 10:32 PM

lookin like a 1-3 night

Maleku · 02-04-12, 11:09 PM

Well, our sports guts were certainly correct on that Wizards play. One of those times where you hate being right.

The only good thing we can take from tonight is the big + PL from the Preds.

Looks like Turner is laying off both NHL and NBA tomorrow. Just the Super Bowl pick which has been already posted.

Light day tomorrow.

FUN FACT: Turner is hitting a mere 43% this month so far... but with the NHL PL's and unit betting we are still showing an 8 unit profit.

That being said... Turner needs to pick it up with the NBA picks!!

Onetime75 · 02-05-12, 12:06 AM

Yea those scary ass PL's are our saving grace lol. Well there's no way I'm playing the Super Bowl pick. I'm on the 1st half under and I can't get away from it. I'll be pulling for those that are after the shitty half time show.