Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[Da Manster!]

[Da Manster!]

[Da Manster!]

[Da Manster!]

[Da Manster!]

[Da Manster!]

[KVB]

<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/DeadSpiffyIndianpangolin' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='1180'></iframe>

[KVB]

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

970 May 11 DET -117


<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/GenerousPracticalDromaeosaur' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='1182'></iframe>

[KVB]

This GIF is title “sole food”....

<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/BogusSnoopyIcelandichorse' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='1187'></iframe>

[DwightShrute]

NHL

	o6½+102 (LOS ANGELES vrs EDMONTON)
	o6½-114 (TAMPA BAY vrs TORONTO)
	o6½+102 (ST. LOUIS vrs MINNESOTA)
	o6+110 (BOSTON vrs CAROLINA)

3 wins and a PUSH

[Da Manster!]

This GIF is title “sole food”....

<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/BogusSnoopyIcelandichorse' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='1187'></iframe>

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Oh wow… foot jerky

[KVB]

<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/CarefulMellowAndalusianhorse' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='684'></iframe>

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Dind ding ding

Suppers ready!

[KVB]

[DwightShrute]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Well, that was brave, if stupid. <a href="https://t.co/QXOUBiNLj5">pic.twitter.com/QXOUBiNLj5</a></p>&mdash; Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) <a href="https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1524262787132063744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >May 11, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[BeatTheJerk]

Dind ding ding

Suppers ready!

Great position for balls deep there, nice shot.

[stevek173]

Fidels?!

[Da Manster!]

Fidels?!

Bro, give it a rest...seriously.

[DwightShrute]

[Optional]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Well, that was brave, if stupid. <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/QXOUBiNLj5">pic.twitter.com/QXOUBiNLj5</a></p>&mdash; Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1524262787132063744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >May 11, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I've had a cop do that to me once.

Not with the gun but he ran out in front of me to pull me over for speeding on a motorbike and stuck his arm right across me when it was obvious I would not stop that quick.

He regretted it more than me. But man was I pissed off.

[hubie69]

Dind ding ding

Suppers ready!

Tfw

[hubie69]

3 wins and a PUSH

[stevek173]

Fidels?!

[wolfmanmeadows]

Basically, yes. There are a ton of gamblers that will pick off locals and other books based on their difference from "sharp" books.

I don't operated solely this way, I do more capping and other market analysis as well.

One of the points is that understanding the differences in the lines is more important than handicapping. Either by predicting line moves or just line shopping, and understanding a bit about the no vig line, a trader will go a lot farther than not understanding the trading.

I will be more on the end of setting trailing and leading lines, knowing what number I want before it gets there. The other side of the coin is just waiting for it to get there, then trading.

Understanding where edges come from is important. Handicapping edges can be larger than those derived from the books and market themselves, but bettors will find that edges estimated from comparing the markets can be more dependable, less variance even.

I think, for most, it's better to worry about line shopping and estimating edges from the betting side and books than from estimating edges from just handicapping the games.

If given a choice for any level of bettor right now, I would recommend learning to trade the market differences over quant style edge creating.

Some say everything is baked into the line and handicapping doesn't work. I've even heard gamblers that make a living off of "Pinny and other sharp books' leans" say nobody can actually handicap the games.

But think about that. If handicappers couldn't create a leading and lagging or trailing line in the market, then the traders finding edges in the market itself couldn't really exist.

Knowing the markets is more important than knowing the teams, in my opinion.

Thanks for the post and highlighting the key points, been thinking about this one. Used to bet solely on "market tracking" edges, feels more idiot-proof than modeling or other handicapping methods. Modeling more likely to get burned if you make a mistake or rely too much on a stat in your analysis, not to mention being a rookie and barely knowing what you're doing. Almost like the market tracking underfits and other handicapping methods more prone to overfitting. Now I try to combine market tracking to filter out a lot of plays, even if it means reducing the bigger edge that other handicapping methods bring. Need to look at it more from the lens of comparing no vig lines and not just as a filter to exclude plays. Need to incorporate more no vig data, start predicting line movements. Used to be big on intraday data, there are moves between the opener and closer that are missed with just opener - closer data.

"But think about that. If handicappers couldn't create a leading and lagging or trailing line in the market, then the traders finding edges in the market itself couldn't really exist."

Couldn't you theoretically find edges from overbet "square" lines based on sentiment from non-handicappers?

[wolfmanmeadows]

A good fart is like a good orgasm, maybe even better.

The only bad fart is the 'wet fart'

The most common cause of the wet fart is an unexpected sneeze that sets of a chain reaction of other bodily functions, the first being a fart, chances are that fart is not going to a traditional dry gassy one, it'll probably be of the liquid variety that'll leave a brown watery substance of which resembles the color of Dinty Moore beef stew and the texture of Carvel's soft serve ice cream.

Such a pain in the ass (pardon the pun, did you see what I just did there?) that wet fart is.

First you have to drop everything you are doing, change your grundoons into clean ones, but before putting on a pair of new clean boxers you have to clean down there between your butt cheeks making sure your anus is minty fresh or else what's the sense of changing into new boxers in the first place?

The other option is to go back out like a lot of dudes in the 80's with the mullets did, go commando.

Sometimes I like to sit on the can and fart it out in case I get a wet one. I'm all about the clean drawers. Clean my crack with wet toilet paper after every dump and before bed, change my drawers before going to sleep too.

#CleanestButtOnTheForums

[wolfmanmeadows]

can only get down at some of the kiosks

MLS
20220514/nashville-sc/houston-dynamo-fc/1 over 2.5
20220514/fc-cincinnati/chicago-fire-fc/1 under 2.5


how long are these guys gonna keep performing?

[wolfmanmeadows]

weather, umps, park factors, lefty/righty stats, starting pitchers, bullpen usage

what data makes mlb special compared to other sports?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors

[DwightShrute]

[19th Hole]

Sometimes I like to sit on the can and fart it out in case I get a wet one. I'm all about the clean drawers. Clean my crack with wet toilet paper after every dump and before bed, change my drawers before going to sleep too.
#CleanestButtOnTheForums

~~~
Well, she's gonna wanna bleach that starfish.

[MaltedHopsFrenzy]

I saw this stupid movie on HBO a couple of years ago - ScarJo is naked for like half of it…..

[KVB]

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund hasw picked up...

966

13-May

TB +115

Broader Fund of course. I've ost like 4 in a row after finishing last week strong.



<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/IdleUnconsciousHornbill' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='524'></iframe>

[BeatTheJerk]

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund hasw picked up...

966

13-May

TB +115

Broader Fund of course. I've ost like 4 in a row after finishing last week strong.



<iframe src='https://gfycat.com/ifr/IdleUnconsciousHornbill' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' allowfullscreen width='640' height='524'></iframe>

I’m on that with you, I got O’s +135 A’s +134 & Rays +115 Rays is a full unit play = 1,000

[KVB]

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has added...

961 May 13 PHI +195

Sneaking a quick play in, lol, gotta run. BOL generous on this line, probably should be suspcious.

[wolfmanmeadows]

~~~
Well, she's gonna wanna bleach that starfish.

learn something new every day

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anal_bleaching