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I give dude one task, get creative with the regions. And he's got this shit going on (just kidding).
But still, we must first clear the land and make the it proper, lay some stuff underground, before we can build the skyscraper on top of it.
Now the NFL, the NFL, is a tough gig without dealing with the market environment. There just aren't enough games to get to target percentages. It's a true long haul in that respect.
It's difficult to tell, when you lose, whether or not you did something wrong or if it's just a loss unless you are really in tune with what's happening market wise.
The conversation, I think, really does need to be taken away from SBR.
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who says i'm not using regions to come up with those crude picks?
still have an idea involving google places api. you can calculate the travel distances between places, venues, airports, major cities. it would be easy to automate and standardize groupings of teams across sports. it would also fit in nicely with one of the stages of the preprocessing pipeline
been busy working on the baller jars, feeling like DaMan. first batch was translucent and straight to the dome. next full spec batch should last 3-4 months
been waking up at 530, only time i can work on sports before the symptoms set in. good night sleep and cbd dabs with each session has unlocked a productivity that i haven't seen in a long time.
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Diggity, KVB and Nasher playing poker.
Then Fidels shows up with a good hand.
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Howdy all.
Nasher in 'da house.
Your pal Nasher likes Tampa Bay (the baseball team) tonight.
Not so much Tampa Bay the football team.
I wouldn't fade me right now, even if you disliked me for what ever reason I wouldn't fade me.
16-3 now in my last 19 posted plays.
I know, I know, I can be a tad of a blowhard at times, and my mother always preached to me "Self praise stinks" and all but sometimes you just have the let the world know I am on mother fukking fire.
I like the Tampa Rays again tonight for the very same reason I liked them last night.
The wrong team is favored.
Books know this, books know the Yankees and Dodgers are the public darlings and if the books think the Dodgers should be -150 they'll set the line at -165 give or take. Reason being the public with bet the Yanks and Dodgers regardless of the price.
Just like last night there is a bunch of value with the Rays tonight.
One last thing.
The Rays are the better team.
The Yankees have more talent.
My money will always be on the better team even if the better team doesn't have name brand superstar talent.
Cases in point.
My 2015 KC Royals, no name brand superstars, just an all around rock solid team.
2012 SF Giants, besides a red hot Matt Cain for a season, Mad Bum, and Buster Posey that SF team was just that, a rock solid team.
2005 White Sox besides Konerko and the Big Hurt had a collection of great role players that knew their roles as it pertained to the team.
My best example is the 2002 Angels.
Pop quiz hot shots, how many World Champion Angels from that 2002 team can you name.
Here's a hint, Glaus and Garret Anderson carries the offense, the rest of that line up was pretty much seven dudes named Mo.
Troy Percival was their closer who was mother freaking lights out automatic that season.
That Angel team had a starting rotation that consisted of a 18 game winner, a 15 game winner, and a 14 game winner and I bet you guys can't name them.
My long winded point being, the best team wins, not the best collection of talent.
If that was the case The Nasty Boys Reds never beat the Bash Brothers,
etc. etc.
Now there are exceptions to the rule.
That late 90's early 2000's Yankees dynasty had the best collection of talent, but their management knew what talent to acquire to complete the teams needs. You also got to remember though those Yankee teams to win without not brand name players like Scott Brosius for example.
Any-hoo.
I believe the best *team* in the American League this season has been the Tampa Rays.
They got a man in the dugout to fill every need, and they do it well.
Better than the rest of the league.
2 units for you pal Nasher +126 Tampa Rays tonight.
And take it from somebody who knows a thing or two about baseball.
Shop around, get the best futures price you can on the Rays, and bet them to win the AL.
They are the best *team*
*team* it's a noun and it's defined in sports as a collection of players to form a side.
And they are the best.
Now, about that other Tamps team.
I can't bet the side tonight.
Why?
Because generally fading home dogs is not a good idea.
And the Bucs are 3 point road faves, and for those with a IQ of greater than your garden variety fruit fly would know that makes the Bears a 3 point home underdog.
To answer the burning question that just popped into your mind just now
"Well Nasher, if home bow-wows are a good bet generally speaking than why don't you bet the Bears tonight?"
The answer is simple.
Because it's the Bears. I can't bet the Bears.
They are a boring team, they can't score points but play good defense thereby allowing opponents to score on them.
Bears are not a bettable team in my eyes.
Q. What do you call a 10-7 final score of a Bears game?
A. A blowout
What I do like in this here football contest in the under.
In case you weren't paying attention to what I just wrote PAY ATTENTION it takes me half an hour to write these posts, you can at least humor your pal and read them.
Any way, at the risk of sounding redundant.
Bears have more than enough defense to contain that Brady character and his new cast of characters.
And how many football points do you really think Nick Foles is going to put up against a good Buc defense.
I really like the under here.
And there you have it.
Under 44.5 in the Bucs game.
Rays + 126 in the baseball game.Comment -
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Glad you enjoyed that.
I'm a writer, not professionally, professionally I am an I/T geek, but I recreation write, it's a hobby.
I have a blog, what I need is an editor, my wife is grammar savvy, but my writing is not romance novels, or fiction, I am an analytical technical writer which might as well be Greek to the traditional American Lit major and or graduates.Comment -
I’m on both Tampa teams tonight.
I’ll read Nasher’s above post later tonight when I can set aside a good hour with no interruptions.Comment -
i have chicago football team winning 23.82 to 20.87Comment -
I need the bears +5.5 ( opening line) pure in this rich guys pickem league I’m in. 6,800 to enter. Win one week win your money back.
Let’s go !Comment -
Well, it's impossible to score 23.82 ande 20.87 points so you have to adjust it to a more likely score, right?
Many would just round and in football that would be a mistake because of the nature of scoring in the game. But, in this particular example, lol, rounding works.
First, you literally have a tie game with a Bears "home field" advantage, whether that's in the makeup of your formula or not. Stay with me here. You have literally been driven to it by the info that is out there.
Make no mistake, it's the start of the week and Thursday night, it's by design. The most frequent team score in the NFL over the last 20 years is 20 and it's rising with rising scores. The most frequent margin of victory in that same sample of data is 3. The most frequent Total? Take a guess on the top two.
The market is steering the money.
Anyway, if we round you have Chicago winning 24-21. Those are pretty realistic football scores, a realistic Total, and there's that 3 point margin of victory.
Now if you had a forecast of, say, 11.8 points. Would you just round to 12? How often does a team score 12 points? You might consider a more realistic score of 10, or maybe 13.
A lot of that can depend on how you arrive at the forecast. However you arrived, the numbers aren't surprising.
I always say it takes 4 weeks of data to rally get the ball rolling.
Well, welcome to week 5, when the sharp money comes into play.
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Everybody writing novels in here tonight.
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Welp, Tulane scored 24 points already, so that's good, but it doesn't do the UNDER much good.
304 8-Oct TULANE/HOU UNDER 59.5 (-105) Line closed at +217 so it got away from us a bit. Not to mention, we scored first with an intercepton return.303 8-Oct TULANE +170
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Damn , she's bouncyComment -
Seriously, that light up hula hoop ass.
I want to see it upright.
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Bears with the lead at half time.
This Bears team fukks.Comment -
I like that this is a close game as well, since that will help my Tom Brady over 264.5 passing yards prop.
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I will bet under's when the analytics say so but I don't have to like it.
My under was looking solid until that bone headed turnover.
This is why when I am teaching sports analytics I always say some thing like this.
"On paper this game should wind up with around 41 total points, but games are played on turf, not paper"
Damn, one turnover changed the odds of me covering that under from around 70 percent to about 30 percent.
The saving grace here is I am on a magic carpet ride heater.
I've been winning bets the past two weeks I had no business cashing.
You know what they say about luck.
"It's the residue of design"
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We're working the Tulane upset here Nasher.
They came to play but there's plenty of game left.
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Cantaloupes
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Well yeah, anything is possible.
I mean we elected a black president.
At one time not to long ago the number one rapper was a white dude and at the very same time the number golfer was a black dude.
If Sonny Bono can become the Mayor of Palm Springs and Cher can win an Academy Award, then yeah, anything is possible.Comment -
im over it
you should just tell your "sports analytics" students; "shit happens, dont bet on shit"
i kno this is a happy thread with good vibes, but i'm just over it. why the penetrate do i bet on the imperfect bounce of a ball. Didn't the movie "match point" by woody allen start with a scene like that?
im on yanks parlayed with under 9
and pads....(doyers just score 5 in the third inning)
I'm so in the hole hat even if i win both, i'll have a negative balance...sometimes i just wanna lose to get it over with and quit chasing...
im too hard on myself with sports betting losses and im not betting above my means ... oh well. last beer and im out boys.
Here's a nice ass eating pizza and a BAD ass song i recently heard to save this post
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good luck tonight, and tomorrow, and always
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Nasher, since anything is possible, is it possible that you can send this dancing lady over to my house tonight?
Tell her to bring her
with her, please.
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